Beginning this Saturday, baseball’s free agents will be eligible to sign with any team they want.
Over the next couple of days we’ll break down the best available free agents by position, with some special attention paid to the top guys at each spot. We’ll continue with relief pitchers.
Mark Melancon (can opt out)
Kimbrel is the cream of the crop here, even though he struggled in the ALDS and ALCS. It’s believed he was tipping his pitches, as was pointed out by former reliever Éric Gagné. Kimbrel finished the 2018 postseason with a 5.91 ERA and a 10/8 K/BB ratio in 10 2/3 innings. Kimbrel is turning 31 and is coming off of another dominant regular season, however, so expect him to be heavily pursued.
A handful of the guys on this list could close, depending on their team’s needs. Those relievers include Cody Allen, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Kelvin Herrera, Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, David Robertson, and Adam Ottavino. Mark Melancon, too, if he opts out. The next echeleon includes relievers who would fit in as seventh- or eighth-inning guys: Brad Brach, Santiago Castilla, Jim Johnson, Shawn Kelley, Joe Kelly, Ryan Madson, AJ Ramos, Blake Wood. Then there’s your lefty specialists: Jake Diekman, Tony Sipp, Justin Wilson. The rest are likely to settle for minor league deals.
Joe Kelly’s stock is much higher after an outstanding postseason performance for the world champion Red Sox. Across nine appearances, he pitched 11 1/3 innings, yielding two runs (one earned) on eight hits and one walk with 13 strikeouts. In the World Series specifically, Kelly tossed six scoreless innings, allowing just four hits with no walks and 10 strikeouts.
Ryan Madson’s stock went in the other direction due to an abysmal postseason showing. He was only on the hook for two runs officially, but he inherited 14 base runners and allowed nine of them to score.
Shawn Kelley’s stock is back up after an acrimonious breakup with the Nationals during the summer. After posting a 3.34 ERA in 32 1/3 innings for the Nationals, Kelley went to the Athletics and pitched even better. In 16 2/3 innings with his new club, he compiled a 2.16 ERA with 18 strikeouts and six walks. He helped shore up the Athletics’ bullpen, which allowed them to finish 97-65. Kelley has been quite good in three out of the last four seasons.
Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, and Mark Melancon’s stocks are down for various reasons. Britton’s peripherals the last two seasons have not been good — averaging about 1.6 strikeouts per one walk. That’s a far cry from his 2015-16 seasons when he averaged over five and four, respectively, strikeouts per one walk. Miller missed time during the 2018 season with injuries and control has increasingly become an issue since averaging just one walk per nine innings in 2016. Melancon’s last two years haven’t been great and he was unable to reach 40 innings in both seasons. In Miller and Melancon’s cases, both are in their mid-30’s and will likely be unable to procure anything longer than a three-year deal.
Everyone. Especially with the rising popularity of the “opener,” teams can’t have enough bullpen depth. That being said, there are some rebuilding teams that aren’t likely to spend money on an elite reliever this offseason, such as the Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, and White Sox.
Teams that are likely to shop for relievers include:
- Houston Astros: The Astros seemed to really like Roberto Osuna at closer, but that doesn’t preclude them from going after an upgrade. They are losing Tony Sipp to free agency and will likely replenish from outside the organization.
- Boston Red Sox: Despite their bullpen becoming a strength as the postseason went on, objectively speaking, the bullpen is the team’s biggest weakness, especially sans Craig Kimbrel. They are also losing Joe Kelly to free agency. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them add two elite bullpen arms such as Adam Ottavino and Cody Allen (if they believe Allen’s subpar 2018 to have been a fluke).
- New York Yankees: It seems like the Yankees are always involved in the free agent reliever market. They’re losing Zach Britton and David Robertson to free agency. The Yankees, too, could have multiple gets from this market.
- Cleveland Indians: The Indians are losing their closer, Cody Allen, to free agency. Mid-season pickup Brad Hand figures to take over the closer’s role full-time. It is difficult to see the Indians winning bidding wars against the aforementioned, so I wonder if the club might get creative and try to add several bullpen pieces in offseason trades.
- Atlanta Braves: After their rebuild came together well ahead of schedule, the Braves will be the NL East favorites going into 2019. The bullpen was quite solid throughout the year, but it’s a young bullpen. They could benefit greatly from the addition of a veteran or two to lead the way. Braves ownership has seemed hesitant to spend so I’d wager the club waits until January to see who’s left.
- Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies also seemed to come together earlier than expected in the first half, but the bullpen was one big reason why the club faltered down the stretch, finishing 80-82. The Phillies are expected to be big players for free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, so their focus may not be on the bullpen until later in the offseason. Still, GM Matt Klentak may feel like adding one more big bullpen piece will help solidify an otherwise young bullpen. I would expect them to go after a lefty first and foremost.
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Brad Boxberger posted a 4.39 ERA this past season, so the D-Backs may acquire a new closer, pushing him into a set-up role. Given how often they saw him, going after Adam Ottavino wouldn’t be out of the question.
- Los Angeles Dodgers: A team with a payroll at the level of the Dodgers will always be in the relief market, but they will especially after the sub-optimal showing in the World Series. The Dodgers also can’t know for sure how Kenley Jansen will hold up given his heart condition. I’d expect them to go after Shawn Kelley or Joe Kelly (having nothing to do with their last names) as opposed to an established, big-name closer. The front office knows where the smart money goes.
If the last couple years of free agency are any indication, we may see a couple of names come off the board in November and December, but a lot of the names listed above may not have new uniforms until February or March. Teams are a lot more wary now about agreeing to big contracts, especially with relievers.