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2019 officially the most homer-happy season of all-time


We saw it coming a mile away, but the 2019 season is now officially the most homer-happy season of all-time. Collectively, players had homered 6,084 times this season, entering Wednesday’s action 21 shy of tying the 2017 season at 6,105. It only took a couple of hours to match it.

Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien hit the record-tying homer, a solo shot in the fourth inning against Astros starter José Urquidy to temporarily tie the game at 1-1.

There was a league-wide lull in homers for about 20 minutes before Orioles shortstop Jonathan Villar hit a three-run home run off of Dodgers reliever Caleb Ferguson, breaking a 2-2 tie in the seventh inning.

On a rate basis, the 2019 season blows every other season out of the water. We’ve seen an average of 1.4 home runs per game this year, quite a bit more than the 1.26 per game average of 2017. The 2000 season is in third at 1.17 homers per game.

With a few weeks left in the season, the league is on pace to finish the year with over 6,800 homers. There are myriad factors into the sharp increase in home runs, but far and away the biggest factor has been the baseball.

Mark Lerner says Nationals can’t afford both Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg

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The defending champion Washington Nationals may have to replace two star players in third baseman Anthony Rendon and starter Stephen Strasburg as both are free agents. Both are represented by agent Scott Boras and both are expected to command lucrative contracts. As a result, Nationals managing principal owner Mark Lerner said the club can’t afford to bring back both players, Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington reports.

Lerner told Donald Dell in an interview, “We really can only afford to have one of those two guys. They’re huge numbers. We already have a really large payroll to begin with.”

As Dybas notes, there are myriad reasons why Lerner would say this publicly. If Lerner had instead said, “Yeah, we’re filthy stinking rich, especially coming off of a World Series win. We could afford to get every free agent if we wanted to,” then the Nationals would have no leverage in negotiations. Creating artificial scarcity increases the Nationals’ leverage when negotiating with Boras and his clients. And as Dybas also points out, Lerner’s statement also prepares fans for an unsatisfactory outcome not unlike when the club took itself out of the running to bring back outfielder Bryce Harper earlier this year. This not to say Lerner’s statement is justified; it’s just how things work in the current system.

Lerner also defended the Nationals’ approach to free agency. He said, “They think you’re really back there printing money and it’s whoever goes to the highest bidder. It’s not that way at all. You give these fellas — there’s a negotiation that goes on, but…We’ve been pretty successful in free agency over time. You’re not going to get everybody. Certain players may want to go home, closer to where their home is. You never know the reason why people move on. But, we’ve been very successful. Probably one of the most successful teams in free agency the last 10 years. We’re very proud of our record. But, again, I think people have to realize, it’s not all up to us.”

It is true that the Nationals have been one of the most active teams in free agency in recent years. In a league that has otherwise done the opposite, they deserve some credit for that. But the Nationals are also keenly aware of the competitive balance tax threshold, which teams use as a de facto salary cap. They don’t have to, but they choose to because it’s a convenient structure that allows them to limit expenditures.

At the end of the day, it’s baseball’s financial structure that is rotten. It forces constant misinformation out of everyone’s mouths so as to protect their financial interests and leverage, and incentivizes teams to value profits above all. In a perfect world, MLB team owners wouldn’t need to cry poor every offseason, but we don’t live in such a world.