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2019 Preview: American League West

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Last year the American League West featured one of the best teams in baseball in Houston, one of the biggest surprises in baseball in Oakland, a team that competed for a playoff spot for most of the season in Seattle, a team with both baseball’s best player and it’s most interesting player in Los Angeles and a rebuilding project in Texas. How does all of that shake out in 2018?

Houston Astros

The division certainly still has one of the best teams in baseball. The Astros, of course, won it all in 2017 and won 103 games in 2018 and there’s not a lot of reason to think that they won’t still be at the top of the standings in 2019.

Still, there are questions here, particularly in the rotation, given that they lost Charlie Morton via free agency and lost Lance McCullers Jr. to Tommy John surgery. I suppose it’s still possible that Dallas Keuchel returns, but he’s a free agent as of this writing and even if he did come back to Houston, his season is going to start late given his long period of being unsigned. According to the current depth chart Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock are stepping in to join Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and the newly-acquired Wade Miley.

If it’s determined that Peacock is better-suited to coming out of the pen, Framber Valdez — who got five starts last year — and his questionable command but excellent stuff could slip in to the back of the rotation. If that assemblage does not work the Astros have a great deal of pitching talent in the system. Josh James, who you last saw throwing 100+ m.p.h. gas in the ALCS, is electric. Then there are minor leaguers like Forrest Whitley, who some consider the top pitching prospect in the game, and J.B. Bukauskas and Corbin Martin who both project to be effective big league starters. So, yeah, the Astros have lost pitching but there is plenty more coming, even if it takes a bit of a transitional period to get there.

On offense the Astros are going to be the Astros. Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve obviously form the core, and the addition of Michael Brantley in the outfield will provide a nice boost. Robinson Chirinos behind the plate is an offensive improvement over the now-diminished and now-departed Brian McCann, but his defense is questionable. Backup Max Stassi is the opposite. With Evan Gattis gone, Tyler White should now get regular playing time at his best position: DH.

All in all it’ll be a somewhat different-looking Houston Astros team in 2019, but not radically so. And there is no reason to believe that they will not, once again, run away with the AL West.

 

Oakland Athletics

No one — absolutely no one — saw the A’s 97-win season coming last year. And no one — at least no one I’ve seen — is predicting them to repeat it. There’s probably a good reason for that. The rotation broke down in the second half last year and the A’s, successfully I will note, went all-in on relievers, even using the opener strategy in their Wild Card game loss to the Yankees. It remains to be seen if they have the depth to lean on their bullpen again. The current rotation of Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Brett Anderson and Frankie Montas + an opener remains potentially fragile and does not exactly strike fear into anyone’s hearts.  Top pitching prospect Jesus Luzardo has impressed this spring and, by all rights, should be in that rotation. Daniel Mengden, recently optioned, will likewise see a good amount of time pitching in Oakland. Still, the rotation was a liability last season and could very well be one again.

On offense the A’s lost one of their best players, Jed Lowrie, to free agency. They’re hoping the newly-acquired Jurickson Profar lives up to his former top-prospect hype and serves as Lowrie 2.0. His nice 2018 season suggests that, for all of his time lost in the woods in his early 20, he may finally be coming around. Heck, he’s still only 26. Beyond that, the offense remains a strength, obviously, with Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty and other mashers hitting a bunch of longballs and shortstop Marcus Semien being one of the more underrated players in the game, both offensively and defensively. It’s a fantastic group.

Most projection systems feature the A’s taking a big step back. I suppose the smart money is on that and, as I said, Houston remains a beast. The A’s, though, are just a couple of arms short of surprising again.

 

Los Angeles Angels

Mike Trout is still Mike Trout. Unfortunately, beyond him, the Angels are still the Angels. A new manager, yes — Brad Ausmus replaces Mike Scioscia — but otherwise it’s, again, an assemblage of familiar and in some cases intriguing players who, as a whole, look pretty clearly to be less than the sum of their parts. Last year’s big addition, Shohei Ohtani, will be limited to DH duties thanks to Tommy John surgery. Those DH skills — while considerable — won’t even be available to start the season as he’s just going to begin taking batting practice this week.

There are new faces in town, as the Halos picked up first baseman Justin Bour, catcher Jonathan Lucroy, starters Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill and closer Cody Allen. They also obtained infielder Tommy La Stella in a trade with the Chicago Cubs. Allen fills a pretty big need and Harvey has some potential upside, I suppose. Bour fell back last season but has shown he is capable of swinging a potent bat. Maybe the most interesting thing that happens all year in Anaheim is seeing what happens when Ohtani is ready to play and Brad Ausmus has to decide how much to sit the highly paid and obviously famous Albert Pujols in favor of the clearly superior Bour.

As we seem to say with the Angels every year, if everything breaks just right the season could be interesting.  If Trout remains Trout, supporting players play above their heads and the OK on paper rotation — this year Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Jamie Barria, Nick Tropeano, Harvey and Cahill — stay healthy, it’s not hard to see some expectations exceeded. If said expectations are exceeded one could imagine the win total pushing from the low-80s to the high 80s and, thanks to the overall weak group of American League Wild Card contenders outside of the East, the Angels being one of, say, three or four teams in the mix. We have learned, however, not to put too much stock in the Angels’ potential, so we will remain bearish on them unless and until they give us reason not to be.

 

Seattle Mariners 

Robinson Cano, James Paxton, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Díaz, Jean Segura and Mike Zunino are all gone. Kyle Seager is lost to injury for a couple of months. Heck, even the ballpark has a new name. The Mariners, winners of 89 games last season, are a totally new team. And they are totally not going to win 89 again this year.

Eighty-nine wins is not bad, but in Major League Baseball the incentives are such that tearing it all down is simply what’s done now. It’s rebuilding time, and winning baseball games is not going to be the primary interest of the 2019 Seattle Mariners. The only bonafide big name they added in the offseason — Edwin Encarnacion — came on board to offset the money in the Carlos Santana-to-Cleveland deal, and they only got Santana to offset money in the Jean Segura deal. Encarnacion himself will likely be traded this year if he does anything other than completely crater. There are still some well-known names on the roster — Jay Bruce, Mitch Haniger, Dee Gordon, Felix Hernandez and, eventually, Seager will be around — but everything about what’s happening in Seattle this year is about the future, not the present. Their biggest battle will to be against the Rangers to avoid fifth place. I am rather agnostic as to who has a bigger claim on that position at the moment, frankly.

Texas Rangers

Gone: future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre, to retirement. Remaining: the Rangers’ rebuild, which does not figure to bear enough fruit in 2019 to radically improve on last year’s 95-loss club. Added: a whole lot of random players that you’ve heard of and whom, it would seem, are mostly in town to kill time, eat innings and, possibly, be flipped in order to fuel the rebuild some more. Unless of course you think Jeff Mathis, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Jason Hammel, Drew Smyly, Shawn Kelley, Zach McAllister or Jesse Chavez are gonna be a big part of the next great Texas Rangers team. Hunter Pence is in town now. He’s fun.

The 2019 season is going to be all about the development of prospects Taylor Hearn, Yohander Mendez, Willie Calhoun, Anderson Tejada, Leody Taveras, and Bubba Thompson, all of whom are more likely to feature in later seasons of the Texas Rangers Saga as opposed to the current one.

Upshot: It’s the Astros’ world and everyone else is living in it. The A’s are a good team that is fun to watch but they’ll be fighting regression and, in all likelihood, fighting for a Wild Card spot. The Angels could too, I suppose. The M’s and Rangers are gonna stink on ice.

And That Happened: Monday’s Scores and Highlights

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Where we stand:

  • The Brewers and Cubs both won, giving them each a half-game boost over the Phillies and a full game boost over the Mets, who lost, but keeping the status quo between themselves. Chicago has a one-game lead over Milwaukee for the second Wild Card and a five-game lead over both New York and Philly;
  • The Nationals lost to the Cardinals, reducing their lead for the top spot in the Wild Card race to a half game. We’ve sort of assumed for a couple of weeks that they were a lock at the top but, know what? They’re not;
  • The Twins put a half-game more on their lead over the idle Indians in the AL Central, making the margin five;
  • The Rays and Indians both had the night off while the Athletics lost, putting the Rays a game and a half behind the A’s in second and first, respectively, in the AL Wild Card race while Cleveland trails Tampa Bay by one and a half.

Here are the scores. Here are the highlights:

Tigers 5, Orioles 2: When I did yesterday’s recap I didn’t realize that this was a wraparound series and none of you corrected me so I guess that tells ya how this matchup rates in our collective consciousness. Jordy Mercer hit a two-run homer in the first inning and Victor Reyes hit a two-run double in the second to help Detroit earn the split.

Brewers 5, Padres 1: Corey Spangenberg spent five years with the Padres before this season but he set any residual loyalties aside while facing his old comrades, driving in three runs, including a tie-breaking, two-run triple in the fourth inning. Zach Davies, meanwhile, allowed one run over five and the Milwaukee pen held San Diego scoreless for the final four innings. The Brew Crew has won ten of eleven.

Twins 5, White Sox 3: The Sox took an early 2-0 lead but those were the only two runs Twins starter José Berríros allowed while pitching into the eighth inning. Jorge Polanco hit a sacrifice fly and Nelson Cruz knocked an RBI single in the second to tie things up and Mitch Garver‘s RBI double in the fifth put the Twinkies ahead for good. They didn’t hit a homer in this one. I hope they feel OK.

Cardinals 4, Nationals 2: Marcell Ozuna drove in all four of the Cardinals runs with a two-run homer and a two-run double. He also nailed a runner at home plate in the fourth to keep the Nats from tying things up:

The Nationals are looking over their shoulder and seeing the possibility of three NL Central teams making the postseason while they’re on the outside looking in. Not saying it’s gonna happen, but it could.

Cubs 8, Reds 2: Kyle Schwarber hit a three-run homer and Nicholas Castellanos hit a two-run double while five Cubs relievers tossed five and two-thirds scoreless innings. Schwarber — who we have always identified with stellar defense, right? — also made this diving catch:

Rockies 9, Mets 4: Rockies pitcher Antonio Senzatela hit a tying, two-run single in the fourth after which Trevor Story, a far more usual offensive contributor, smacked a three-run homer to blow things open for Colorado. In all the Rockies roughed up Steven Matz for seven runs on six hits in four innings. Before that single, Senzatela had been 0-for-44 on the year.  Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil each homered in a losing cause for New York.

Diamondbacks 7, Marlins 5: Robbie Ray pitched five and two-thirds innings of no-hit ball and left the game after allowing only one run in six innings. Once he was gone, however, the Fish put up a five-spot in the top of the seventh to come back from being down 3-0. Their lead didn’t last long as the Snakes put up a four-spot in their half of the seventh, including a bases-clearing three-run double by Jake Lamb, to give themselves back the lead and, ultimately, the game. Lamb also knocked in the game’s first run while being hit by a pitch with the bases loaded in the first. There are easier ways to get an RBI but whatever works, right?

Royals 6, Athletics 5: The A’s six-game winning streak comes to an end thanks to some late inning heroics by Royals batters. Specifically, Brett Phillips hit a tying home run off Liam Hendricks in the ninth after which Adalberto Mondesí hit an RBI double to put Kansas City on top. That Mondesí double isn’t an RBI if not for the fact that, one batter earlier, Whit Merrifield reached second thanks to a Ramón Laureano letting the ball simply pop out of his glove. Oops.