The Nationals’ “$300 million offer” to Bryce Harper was not as good as you think

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All offseason, whenever the matter of the free agent market has arisen, readers have swooped into my mentions and comments to tell me that everything is fine and that it’s actually the players who are unreasonable. The evidence cited: “Bryce Harper turned down a $300 million offer from the Nationals!” If I’ve heard that once I’ve heard it six hundred times.

Well, turns out that there was a catch: a full one-third of that was deferred money, reducing the deal considerably in terms of present value. From MLB.com:

Sources told MLB.com on Wednesday that the Nationals have no plans to give Harper a mega-deal comparable to Machado’s 10-year, $300 million contract with the Padres, likely ending any chance for Washington’s longtime face of the franchise to remain with the club. The Nationals offered Harper a contract worth $300 million over 10 years before the end of the 2018 regular season. Harper and his agent Scott Boras rejected the deal.

Two sources said that roughly $100 million of that offer would have been deferred money, lowering the present-day value of the contract.

As Craig Edwards of Fangraphs tweeted a bit ago, a ten year, $300 million deal that pays $20 million a year for ten years then $10 million a year, deferred, after that has the same present value as a straight 10-year deal for $244 million. There are other ways to structure that — shorter deferral periods or longer, Bobby Bonilla-style periods — but no matter how you slice it, deferring one-third of a $300 million deal is a big financial hit for the player compared to the stated and widely-reported “$300 million offer.”

To be petty: when that “$300 million offer” was reported last November, I said this:

The offer was reportedly for roughly $300 million over a ten-year span. How much of that was deferred, backloaded or what have you is unknown . . . As with all reports like these, it’s worth appreciating that someone may have an incentive to put this out there. In this case, I suspect, the Nationals, to signal to fans that they made an effort to lock Harper up before he was able to negotiate with teams other than Washington. Doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, but just how specifically good or bad the deal was is not something we can know.

Well, now we know.

Anyway, as the MLB.com story notes, Harper was not taking that kind of deal from the Nationals and the Nats aren’t sweetening it, so the chances of him going back to Washington are, apparently, nil.

The takeaway: be wary of reported offers. Both when they favor the team’s interest and when they favor the player’s interest. Every single on of those reports, however interesting, and however often they may be correct, have an agenda behind them.

Kinsler back with Rangers as special assistant to GM Young

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ARLINGTON, Texas — Former Texas Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler returned to the team as a special assistant to general manager Chris Young, his teammate in the organization’s minor league system nearly two decades ago.

Young said that Kinsler, who was part of the franchise’s only two World Series teams in 2010 and 2011, will be heavily involved in player development and providing mentorship to both players and staff.

Kinsler, a four-time All-Star, was part of a World Series championship with the Boston Red Sox in 2018, a year before his retirement. Kinsler played 14 seasons in the major leagues and spent the last three years in the front office of the San Diego Padres as a special assistant in baseball operations and player development. The 40-year-old has been living in the Dallas area, as he did throughout his playing career.

Kinsler played for the U.S. in the 2017 World Baseball Classic and Israel in last summer’s Olympics, and he will manage Israel in next month’s WBC.

Young and Kinsler were teammates for several weeks at Double-A Frisco in the summer of 2004, the same year the pitcher made his big league debut. They were in big league spring training together in 2005, then Young was traded after that season.

A 17th-round draft pick by Texas in 2003, Kinsler played 1,066 games for the Rangers from 2006-13, hitting .273 with 156 homers, 539 RBIs and 172 stolen bases. He hit .311 with a .422 on-base percentage in 34 postseason games. He was inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame last summer.

Kinsler hit .269 with 257 homers, 909 RBIs and 243 stolen bases in 1,888 career games overall with Texas, Detroit (2014-17), the Los Angeles Angels (2018), Boston (2018), and San Diego (2019). He is one of only two MLB second baseman with 30 homers and 30 stolen bases in multiple seasons, and had the only six-hit cycle in a nine-inning game since 1900 on April 15, 2009.