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Who should win BBWAA’s awards?

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Major League Baseball just announced the top-three finalists for the various awards voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America. If you want a run-down of who’s involved, click here. In this article, I’m going to go over who I think should win each of the four awards with a winner from each league.

AL Rookie of the Year: P/DH Shohei Ohtani, Angels

Even ignoring what he did on the mound, Ohtani outperformed Andújar and Torres, though he had only 367 plate appearances. According to FanGraphs, Ohtani posted weighted on-base average of .390 compared to the .361 of Andújar and .349 of Torres. The AL average is .317. Here’s a primer on wOBA for the uninitiated.

Ohtani, of course, was also a pitcher and a great one at that. In 10 starts before suffering an injury, the 24-year-old posted a 3.31 ERA with 63 strikeouts and 22 walks in 51 2/3 innings. We rarely see two-way players in baseball anymore, and especially not ones that are significantly above-average in both ways. Per Baseball Reference, Ohtani was worth 2.7 WAR as a batter and 1.2 WAR as a pitcher in what amounted to essentially two-thirds of a season. It remains to be seen if Ohtani starts a trend in which more players are capable as both pitchers and position players — probably not — but he was a historically unique player in 2018.

NL Rookie of the Year: OF Juan Soto, Nationals

Personally, I don’t think a ROY, MVP, or Cy Young Award winner has to come from a contending team. It unfairly punishes players who happen to be drafted by, traded to, or sign as free agents with cellar dwellers, often through no fault of their own. Mike Trout is already one of the greatest players ever to play baseball, but he has taken just 15 postseason trips to the plate in his eight-year career. That’s not Trout’s fault and it’s unfair to withhold an award from him because Jered Weaver, for instance, had a bad year.

Anyway. I’m going with Soto over Acuña and Buehler, even though Soto’s Nationals threw in the towel in August. FanGraphs has Soto and Acuña close in many categories, including WAR where both tied at 3.7 (Buehler is at 3.3). I don’t think there’s an objectively correct choice between Soto and Acuña. Soto, however, did it all at one year younger. Soto’s winning the award as a teenager might entice some teams to stop playing service time games with their top prospects, like the Braves did with Acuña and the Cubs with Kris Bryant. Probably not, but a man can dream.

AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin, Athletics

BBWAA awards are voted on before the start of the postseason, so the fact that Cora won the World Series as a rookie manager shouldn’t be considered. For me, I tend to view the MOY award as rewarding a manager who defied expectations. The Red Sox have one of baseball’s largest payrolls and were always expected to be contenders in the AL East. Melvin led the self-proclaimed small-market Athletics from 75 wins in 2017 to 97 in 2018, the club’s highest win total since 2002. Sadly for the A’s, they played in the same division as the 103-win Astros, so they had to settle for a Wild Card berth and were quickly pushed out by the Yankees.

NL Manager of the Year: Brian Snitker, Braves

I sold the Brewers short in my preseason predictions, but a lot of people didn’t, so I think Snitker did the better job among the three candidates. Vegas put the Braves’ over/under at 74.5 wins. They won 90 games. Though still technically in a rebuilding mode, the Braves’ young core gelled much quicker than anticipated, getting big seasons from Acuña as well as Johan Camargo, Ozzie Albies, Mike Foltynewicz, and Arodys Vizcaino, among others. Snitker also really seemed to resonate with his players, including veteran first baseman Freddie Freeman.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Astros

Chris Sale didn’t finish in the top-three, presumably, due to late-season health issues. He finished with 27 starts and 158 innings. The gap between Sale and candidate Blake Snell (180 2/3 innings) is about the same innings-pitched gap between Snell and the other candidates, Corey Kluber (215 innings) and Justin Verlander (214 innings). Snell had the lowest ERA of the three finalists at 1.89 to Verlander’s 2.52 and Kluber’s 2.89. But I’m of the opinion that 214 innings of 2.52 ERA ball is better than 180 2/3 innings of 1.89 ERA ball. Perhaps in the era of “the opener” strategy, which the Rays have championed, eating innings isn’t as big of a deal for a starter, but Verlander pitched into the sixth inning in 31 of his 34 starts. Snell did it 22 times in 31 starts.

NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom, Mets

The Phillies fan in me really wants to make a case for Aaron Nola. And there is a case to be made: the Phillies’ defense was so awful that Nola faced significantly more adversity than his competition did. However, deGrom’s season was historically great. He became the second pitcher to finish with a 1.70 ERA or lower since 1996 (Zack Greinke also did it in 2015 with a 1.66 ERA). In fact, it had only been done four other times prior to that dating back to 1969: twice by Greg Maddux as well as by Dwight Gooden and Nolan Ryan.

AL MVP: OF Mookie Betts, Red Sox

This is one of the rare seasons where Mike Trout is legitimately not the MVP. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have Betts in the lead in WAR 10.4 to 9.8 and 10.9 to 10.2, respectively. Both sites as well as Statcast paint Betts as a better defender than Trout. Betts also picked up a slight edge with his base running. Is Betts a better player than Trout overall? No, but strictly in 2018, he was.

NL MVP: OF Christian Yelich, Brewers

The NL MVP race between Christian Yelich, Nolan Arenado, and Javier Báez looks close, but it shouldn’t be. The trio finished within four home runs of each other and within one RBI of each other. But Yelich had the lead in all three triple-slash categories (and OPS, of course). Arenado also played half his games in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field, so for me, he finishes a distant third. Báez’s defense doesn’t make up for the gap in offense. Both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs seem to be in agreement, crediting Yelich with 7.6 WAR. They put Báez at 6.3 and 5.3, respectively, and Arenado at 5.6 and 5.7, respectively.

And That Happened: Wednesday’s Scores and Highlights

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Here are the scores. Here are the highlights:

White Sox 8, Red Sox 7: Sox win! Chicago led by three in the seventh, blew that by the bottom of the eighth, but José Abreu hit a two-run jack in the top of the ninth to bring the White Sox back. The foundation of the win was the White Sox pouncing on Chris Sale for five runs in the first three innings. He struck out ten and only walked one, but when he wasn’t missing bats he wasn’t missing bats. Sale is still one of the best pitchers in the game but he hasn’t won at home in almost a year. “For some reason, I suck here,” he said after the game. Relatable. To any number of situations in basically of our lives.

Yankees 8, Blue Jays 7: The Jays jumped out to a 5-0 lead but there really isn’t any safe lead against the Yankees this year. Didi Gregorius homered in the second, Aaron Judge singled in a couple in the second as well and D.J. LeMahieu hit a two-run homer to tie things up at five in the fourth. It was tied up at seven by the bottom of the ninth and Gleyber Torres hit a walkoff single to win it for the Bombers. Lourdes Gurriel Jr hit two homers and a double in a losing cause.

The Yankees and Red Sox now head off to London. Blimey, cor, wot’s all this, then, etc.

Indians 5, Royals 3: Trevor Bauer finally had a great day after a couple of months of struggling, striking out 12 while allowing one run into the seventh. He didn’t even allow a hit until the fifth. Jake Bauers and Tyler Naquin homered in support. Francisco Lindor was 3-for-4 and Jason KipnisOscar Mercado and Jordan Luplow each drove in a run. Hunter Dozier hit a ninth inning grand slam on Tuesday. He struck out four times in four at bats here. Baseball is just the worst, you guys, right?

Padres 10, Orioles 5: Franmil Reyes hit two homers. The Padres hit five in all, with Eric Hosmer, Greg Garcia, and Hunter Renfroe going deep as well. This was the tenth time this year the Orioles have allowed five homers in a game. They’ve now allowed 165 homers on the year in 80 games. The 1970 Orioles allowed 125 all year long. Just sayin’.

Diamondbacks 8, Dodgers 2: Arizona was facing off against Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin, who was making his big league debut and jumped out to a 4-0 lead, so, yeah. A three-run homer from Eduardo Escobar paced things in the first and the Snakes would never trail. Jarrod Dyson had three hits, knocked in a run and stole two bases. Russell Martin pitched in this one. Tossed a scoreless eighth, actually, and struck a dude out.

Rockies 6, Giants 3: The Giants jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first but David Dahl hit a grand slam in the third and drove in five in all. Man of the match, right? Is that a thing we have in baseball? We should have that.

Rangers 4, Tigers 1: Mike Minor tossed a complete game allowing on run on five hits and needed only 108 pitches to do the job. Homers from Willie Calhoun, Danny Santana and Jeff Mathis backed him up. The game only took two hours and nineteen minutes. I’d say the Tigers had a plane to catch or something but they’re just playing the Rangers again today. Maybe they all had early reservations at Sammy Sofferin’s Wonder Bar and Indian Room. I hear that Latin troupe extraordinaire, the La Playa Dancers, led by the exotically beautiful Grace Conrad often play on Wednesday nights. Get there early, get a seat by the stage, fill up on Shrimp a la Powhatan and you’re living, buddy.

Phillies 5, Mets 4: Jason Vargas pitched great, giving up only one run to the Phillies for the first six innings, but he ran into trouble in the seventh. That’s when he gave up a second run and left, having struck out ten. Seth Lugo came on in relief and gave up a two more runs, and bing-bang-boom, tied at four, which is how it’d end in regulation. Stephen Nogosek came on to handle the 10th inning but couldn’t record an out, giving up a walk, a single and then a walkoff double to Jay Bruce to end the game. If you wanna feel bad for Vargas for having such a great start blown by his pen, know that a few days later he’s still trying to justify threatening a reporter with violence. Here’s what he said after last night’s game:

“I don’t think all the information is really out there. I don’t think this is a time to get into that. But I think that anybody that knows me, anybody that has played with me, there’s never been a situation like that. So to think it happened out of the blue, it’s foolish . . . “It’s over. Our organization made a statement. We put an end to it. But I think it’s pretty obvious all the info isn’t out there.”

Whatever, my man.

The Mets have lost four in a row. Philly’s seven-game losing streak is now way back in the rear-view mirror, with three straight wins over the Mets.

Angels 5, Reds 1: Yasiel Puig and Justin Bour exchanged solo sots to make it a 1-1 game until the eighth inning. The the Halos scored one more before Bour homered again, this time a three-run blast to give him a four-RBI night and to give the Angels a win. Bour has four homers in five games since being recalled from Salt Lake. You might say he’s really enjoyed the spotlight since being recalled:

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Nationals 7, Marlins 5: It was close until the sixth when Matt Adams hit a three-run blast to make it 4-1. The Nats added three more in the ninth, with runs coming on a wild pitch, a passed ball and a sac fly. They all count. And two of those runs were needed as the Marlins made it interesting with a four-run ninth inning rally of their own, with Bryan Holaday singling in a run and Curtis Granderson tripling with the bases loaded. The old man is still an artist with a Thompson.

Athletics 2, Cardinals 0: Daniel Mengden and his old-timey delivery stymied the Cards for six innings and three relievers finished the five-hit shutout. Beau Taylor and Matt Chapman went deep for Oakland. St. Louis has been shut out six times this season. Three of them have come in the last 14 games.

Mariners 4, Brewers 2: J.P. Crawford drove in three of the M’s four runs and scored the fourth, notching two RBI doubles and an RBI triple. Wade LeBlanc allowed two runs after coming in following an opener and the opener and two other relievers shut Milwaukee out. That’s three straight wins for Seattle.

Braves 5, Cubs 3: Atlanta took a 4-0 lead off of Yu Darvish early thanks to a wild pitch, a Brian McCann solo shot and a Nick Markakis three-run homer. Willson Contreras and Kris Bryant homered for Chicago and they’d add a third run on a Jason Heyward ground out, but otherwise Dallas Keuchel was solid — more solid before a 48 minute rain delay in the fourth than he was upon resuming the game after — and picked up his first win of 2019.

Pirates 14, Astros 2: It was 8-2 heading into the ninth when A.J. Hinch sent first baseman Tyler White to the mound. Sometimes those position players pitching do an OK job mopping up. White did not, allowing six runs on four hits — two of ’em dingers — while walking four. Every team has eleventeen relief pitchers but they’re all drag racers instead of horses and so none of ’em can go more than an inning, leading to silliness like this. Great game we got going right now, eh? Anyway, Josh Bell, Jung-Ho Kang, José Osuna and Kevin Newman homered and Corey Dickerson had four hits and three RBI. 

Twins 6, Rays 4: Minnesota jumped out to a 3-0 lead, had blown it by the seventh to trail 4-3 but then Nelson Cruz hit a go-ahead, three-run, two-out double in the seventh to give the Twins the win. The Rays have lost seven of nine.