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Previewing the N.L. Wild Card Game

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The Wild Card, cosmically speaking, is usually thought of as a bonus. A playoff “in” for a plucky underdog club that, while falling short of the division title, has bested enough of its other intraleague competitors to have earned a lottery ticket that could propel them forward into the playoffs proper.

That’s usually the setup anyway. It’s certainly not the case for tonight’s Wild Card Game between the Rockies and the Cubs. Indeed, it feels like a consolation game, and both teams are likely ticked off that they have to play in it even if they’re grateful that they get to.

That’s particularly true for the Cubs who led or were at least tied atop the N.L. Central every single day from July 13 through, roughly, 4PM yesterday afternoon, when the Brewers vanquished them in the tiebreaker game. Heck, Chicago led by as many as five games in September. Their losing out on the division title is not really a “collapse” as we have defined that term of late — ask the 2011 Braves or Red Sox about that — but it’s certainly a deflation. Everyone outside of Milwaukee expected the Cubs to win the division and that they didn’t has to bum them out quite a bit. They were never playing for the Wild Card. For the 2018 Chicago Cubs, the Wild Card is a consolation prize. It’s the baseball equivalent of leaving a game show with a case of Rice-a-Roni instead of the brand new car.

It’s not quite so bad for Colorado, who only stood in first place in the NL West for a smattering of games in May and then shared it off-and-on with the Dodgers in September. Still, they had their destiny in their own hands as late as Saturday, before a bad loss to the Nationals forced yesterday’s tiebreaker. That probably does not sting quite as bad as the Cubs’ non-collapse stings, but the fact is they had to make a cross country flight last night with a bad taste in their mouths. They played in the Wild Card game last year. They lost it. They know how it feels to have to win a one-and-done game to move on and they did not want to be in that position again.

Still, they have to play this game and they have to win it if they wish to delay their offseason by another week or so. Let’s break it down, shall we?

The starting pitchers:

An easy call for Chicago. Jose Quintana got yesterday’s start because of how much rest everyone had (and because he usually owns the Brewers), but Lester has been their ace all year. If the Cubs are in an elimination game, and they are, Lester is who Joe Maddon wants on the bump.

Freeland has never pitched in the postseason and he’s pitching on three days rest, having thrown 96 pitches in the Rockies win over Washington on Friday. Still, he’s coming in hot, having gone 5-0 in September and 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 14 starts since the All-Star break. Like Chicago, Colorado has its ace working this evening.

The lineups:

The Rockies had the second best run-scoring offense in the National League this year — and Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are a potent 1-2 punch — but the overall numbers are obviously affected by Coors Field and they are a team that certainly can be pitched to. The Cubs offense was sixth in runs scored, led the league in batting average and was second in OBP, but again, that feels misleading. The Cubs struggled mightily to score runs late in the season and couldn’t muster much at all against Milwaukee yesterday. Each team’s bats can go silent for long stretches.

The bullpens:

The Cubs need Lester to go deep and/or the lineup to put them up big early, because their pen is on fumes right now. Cubs relievers were needed to get 20 outs Sunday and Maddon used six relievers in yesterday’s loss. Losing both of their closers to injury — both Pedro Strop and Brandon Morrow are still on the shelf — has been rough for the Cubs. Look for Maddon to use starting pitchers in relief if this thing is close.

Colorado, meanwhile, has Wade Davis, Adam Ottavino, Scott Oberg and Jake McGee, all of whom are fresher than the Chicago relief corps (Oberg and McGee pitched yesterday, but tossed only eight and fifteen pitches, respectively).

Prediction:

Predictions are kind of meaningless in one-and-done baseball games. Anything can happen. One ball getting lost in the lights or one pitch failing to break as expected can change the whole game. As such, I won’t predict a winner here. I will say, though, that for the Cubs to have their best chance to win, Lester will need to be on top of his game to go deep in this game. For the Rockies to win, they will need, at the very least, a non-disaster start from Freeland and to get into the Cubs’ tired bullpen.

Both of these teams are entering this game grouchy. One of them is gonna be way more grouchy around 11pm Eastern this evening. Tune in to ESPN at 8PM eastern to see how that all plays out.

A flipped-script NLCS moves to Los Angeles for Game Three

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The book heading into the series was that the Dodgers’ starters needed to come up big for them due to questions in the bullpen and that the Brewers’ bullpen was going to dominate Dodgers batters, so they had best do what they can to score off of Milwaukee’s starters. So, of course, the Dodgers starters turned in performances of three and four and a third innings and eight of their nine runs the Brewers have given up have come from their relievers. I dunno, man. It’s baseball. It lends itself to anticipatory analysis worse than any other sport.

All I do know for sure is that this series has been as close as it gets so far, with each game being decided by a run and the outcome being determined late. The first two games have given me a sense that the teams are just feeling each other out and that the next three, in Los Angeles, will provide a bit more coherence to all of this. Not that there isn’t something a bit fun about incoherence when it comes to a playoff series.

Your viewing guide:

NLCS Game 3

Brewers vs. Dodgers
Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
Time: 7:39 PM Eastern
TV: FS1
Pitchers: Jhoulys Chacin vs Walker Buehler
Breakdown:

Jhoulys Chacin had an excellent NLDS start against the Colorado Rockies, turning in five scoreless innings. If he does something approaching that tonight the Brewers will be in pretty good shape given that Josh Hader — who pitched three shutdown innings in Game one — is available again tonight. To the extent Craig Counsell needs to dig more deeply into his reliever corps, however, things could get dicey. Corbin Burnes, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel and Joakim Soria have combined to allow seven earned runs in four innings. Brandon Woodruff, who has been dominant thus far, throwing five scoreless innings, stands a good chance of being the opener for Game 4, so Counsell will likely try to keep him off the mound tonight. That puts a decent amount of pressure on Chacin to get the game to Hader with as few innings remaining as possible.

For Los Angeles, it’s Walker Buehler who, the grand slam he gave up to Ronald Acuña in the NLDS notwithstanding, was the Dodgers’ most dominant starter down the stretch. In keeping with the somewhat flipped script so far, however, the Los Angeles bullpen has been solid, allowing just two runs over their ten and two-thirds innings in Games 1 and 2. Not that Dave Roberts wouldn’t love to see Buehler go deep tonight too.