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2018 Preview: Los Angeles Angels

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Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2018 season. Next up: The Los Angeles Angels.

The Angels made some aggressive moves this offseason. They may have had the most active offseason of anyone, in fact. Specifically:

  • They signed Justin Upton to a five-year, $106 million contract extension;
  • The signed All-Star shortstop Zack Cozart and turned him into a third baseman;
  • They traded for Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler; and
  • They won the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, giving them a potential ace and a potential power threat in one package.

But is that enough?

The Angels flirted with the Wild Card at times last season, ultimately falling five games short. They also had to do without baseball’s best player, Mike Trout for all of June and half of July. Some might say that made the difference, but the truth of the matter is that the Angels had a lot of problems beyond Trout’s time on the DL. Most notably, they were near the bottom of the AL in offense and, once again, the pitching staff suffered a slew of injuries.

What went right for them? The bullpen was unexpectedly good, Andrelton Simmons had his best year at the plate and, even with the time on the disabled list, Mike Trout was Mike Trout and that carries you a long way. Or, at least to 80 wins. For them to move beyond 80 wins and into serious playoff contention territory, they’re going to need a lot more.

For one thing they, more than most contenders, need some good luck with health in the rotation.

Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker, and JC Ramirez have all suffered serious injuries in recent years and all of them will need to be healthy this year for the Halos to be competitive. Between them, Ohtani, Andrew Heaney, Parker Bridwell and Nick Tropeano, there are seven or eight good starting pitchers hanging around. All of them will be necessary given that (a) there has been talk of the Angels using a six-man rotation; (b) even if they don’t, formally, go to a six-man, Ohtani’s workload will probably limit him, on average, to a start a week, requiring a lot of spot starts; and (c) with this bunch, someone is likely to be hurt again. As has often been the case in recent years, the pitching looks good on paper in March. Whether the arms all hold up in practice will be the real question.

Before we move on, let me offer a brief aside about Shohei Ohtani.

He got all of the offseason press, both because of his promise — he’s a two way star! — and because of the sweepstakes to get him. It’s important to put the hype aside now, though, and think of him as just a baseball player. As a pitcher he has a chance to be something special based on his scouting reports, but so far he hasn’t shown much in spring training. As a hitter he looks pretty overmatched so far, but that could be rust, as he only hit in 65 games last year. There will be adjustments for the young man, and those adjustments will likely take longer than the Angels will be in Tempe for spring training. All of which is to say that, even if I think he has a great future in major league baseball, it’s easy to expect too much of him in 2018. As such, view any Angels previews that place too much emphasis on how he does with a skeptical eye.

Let us continue.

As mentioned, the bullpen was a blessing for the Angels last year, with Yusmeiro Petit, Blake Parker and Bud Norris anchoring the late innings. Only Parker is back from that crew and joining him for eighth and ninth inning work will be Cam Bedrosian, who showed emerging greatness in 2016 and, some nagging injuries aside, some nice stretches last year. Filling out the group will be new acquisition Jim Johnson, Keynan Middleton, Jose Alvarez, Noe Ramirez and whoever isn’t in the rotation at any given time. It’s hard to see that group being as good as the Angels had last year — Johnson was downright terrible in Atlanta — but no one really thought what the Angels had last year would be as good as it was either. The good thing here is that Mike Scioscia showed last season that he was not as hidebound as many accuse of him of being. He used relievers in different roles at different times and that’s a good approach to take when you have a lot of unknowns.

Ultimately, though, the Angels will rise and fall based on how their lineup does.

Mike Trout is Mike Trout and, barring injury, will be a top MVP candidate again. Andrelton Simmons made himself a useful offensive player last year, posting an OPS+ of 103. With his glove, that makes him among the most valuable players in the league. It’ll be interesting to see if, in his age 28 season, he maintains that level or if 2017 was a fluke. Justin Upton came over in a trade last last season and gave the Angels a second offensive threat for the first time in a long time. Overall it was the second best offensive season of his career. If he’s that Justin Upton once again, good things are happening in the middle of the order.

New third baseman Zack Cozart had a breakout offensive year in 2017. Though there’s a good chance he falls back to earth a good bit in 2018, the converted shortstop should be a plus defender at the hot corner, making the left side of the Angels’ infield something special. New second baseman Ian Kinsler put up his worst season as a major leaguer last year. At age 36 a bounceback is not something to bet the mortgage on, but given the black hole that was the second base slot for the Angels last year, he’ll likely represent an improvement for the club, even at a diminished-for-him level. His glove remains solid.

Speaking of diminished, Albert Pujols is still there. He only played six games at first base last year, but will likely see more time there in 2018 due to the plan to let Ohtani DH a couple of times a week. If Pujols doesn’t cover first on those days Luis Valbuena will stay there and Pujols will ride pine. That’ll be the right thing to do regardless given how Pujols is mostly cooked as a hitter, though Pujols’ contract and status may see him playing more than he deserves to at this point in his career. Martin Maldonado and Kole Calhoun round things out. Neither are dangerous hitters, but Calhoun at least has shown more in the past than he did in 2017.

Overall, it’s reasonable to assume that the Angels offense will improve in 2018. Maybe not a ton, but if Trout stays in the lineup, Upton, Cozart and Kinsler provide the upgrades they figure to be and everyone else at least maintains, things should come up from where they were offensively speaking in 2017. With that, some health in the rotation and the upgraded defense on what was already an above average defensive team, the Angels should be pretty interesting.

Interesting enough to catch the Astros? Nah. Not seeing that at all. This is, at best, I think, a 90 win team, perhaps, if things break well and maybe an 85-win team if they don’t break well but they avoid disasters. That’ll play, though. It’ll be enough to challenge the runners up in the AL Central and AL East for one of the two Wild Card slots.

Prediction: Second Place, AL West.

If 2020 season is canceled, which players would be hurt the most?

Miguel Cabrera
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Last week, I went over a few teams that stood to be hurt most if there were to be no 2020 season as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Today, we will look at some players who may be adversely effected by a lost year.

Milestones

Players chasing milestones, especially those towards the end of their careers, would be stymied by a lost season. Tigers DH and future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera is the first one that comes to mind. He is 23 home runs short of joining the 500 home run club. Though he hasn’t hit more than 16 in a year since 2016, he would likely have at least hit a few this year and would have had an easier time getting there in 2021. He turns 37 years old in 10 days. Cabrera may be under contract through 2023, but it is not clear that his age and his health would allow him to play regularly such that he would be able to reach 500 home runs if the 2020 season were to be canceled. (Cabrera is also 185 hits shy of 3,000 for his career.)

Mike Trout has 285 home runs for his career. It’s almost a given that he would get to 300 and beyond in 2020. He is currently one of only 13 players with at least 250 home runs through his age-27 season. The only players with more: Álex Rodríguez (345), Jimmie Foxx (302), Eddie Mathews (299), and Ken Griffey Jr. (294). Trout likely would have also reached 1,000 runs for his career, as he is currently at 903. Losing a full season could really make a difference where he winds up on the all-time leaderboards at the end of his career.

Veteran catcher Yadier Molina will be a free agent at season’s end, though he and the Cardinals have expressed interest in a contract extension. He turns 38 this summer and is 37 hits shy of 2,000 for his career. Even if this season never happens, Molina will likely join the 2,000 hit club in 2021 whether or not he signs a multi-year extension. Molina is also 84 RBI shy of 1,000 and 21 doubles shy of 400.

Free Agents

Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts and Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto headline the free agent class heading into the 2021 season. Even if there eventually is a 2020 season, or something resembling it, teams are losing money across the board and that will result in stinginess in the free agent market. Make no mistake, Betts and Realmuto, as well as Trevor Bauer, Marcus Semien, and Marcus Stroman will still get paid handsomely, but they likely won’t get as much as they would following a typical year. The players that really stand to get hurt are the mid-tier free agents, whose cost won’t match their relative upside — players like James McCann, Howie Kendrick, Yuli Gurriel, DJ LeMahieu, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, Justin Turner, Michael Grantley, Marcell Ozuna, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jay Bruce, and Josh Reddick.

2020-21 Draftees and International Free Agents

At the end of March, MLB and the MLB Players Association reached an agreement on a deal covering issues including service time, pay during the pandemic, and the amateur draft. In exchange for players on active rosters getting credit for a full year of service time whether or not there is a 2020 season, the league got the right to shorten the 2020 draft to five rounds and the 2021 draft to 20 rounds. The league also gained the right to delay the start of the 2020 and 2021-22 international signing periods.

The MLBPA effectively sold out what will be their future union members. A shortened draft this year and/or next year would mean that players who would otherwise have been drafted this year will go undrafted and thus will either become unsigned free agents or return to the draft next year as part of a crowded pool of players. Likewise, pushing back the international signing period will add more players to the market at the same time. This, obviously, benefits ownership as a surplus of labor diminishes those laborers’ leverage.

Bounce-back Candidates

Players coming off of injuries or otherwise down years in 2019 were hoping to use 2020 to bounce back, reestablishing themselves in the league. Angels two-way player Shohei Ohtani didn’t pitch at all last year after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was hopeful to rejoin the starting rotation at some point in the first half of a normal 2020 season. We learned yesterday that Ohtani is expected to throw off a mound “soon.” If a 2020 season does happen, it likely wouldn’t begin for another couple of months at minimum, which should afford him enough time to get into pitching shape.

Ohtani’s teammate and perennial Gold Glove Award candidate Andrelton Simmons played in only 103 games last season due to an ankle injury. He mustered a meager .673 OPS as well, compiling just 1.9 WAR, his lowest total in any season since debuting in 2012. In 2017, he peaked at 7.8 WAR and put up 6.3 the following season. Simmons will become a free agent after the 2020 season, so he most certainly needed a healthy and productive 2020 to maximize his leverage on the market.

Reds first baseman Joey Votto, now 36 years old, is coming off of the worst offensive season of his career. He hit .261/.357/.411 with 15 home runs and 47 RBI in 608 plate appearances, continuing a downward trend. He registered a 167 adjusted OPS as recently as 2017, but that declined to 126 in ’18 and 98 last year. The Reds, back to being competitive, were definitely banking on a bounce-back year from Votto. (Votto, by the way, is also 56 RBI short of the 1,000 milestone for his career.)