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George Springer’s home run wasn’t a vindication for “third time through the order” avoidance strategy

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Dodgers starter Alex Wood brought a no-hit bid into the sixth inning of World Series Game 4 on Saturday night, limiting the Astros to a mere walk. With the 8-9-1 batters due up, many — particularly Sabermetrically-aligned people — wondered if manager Dave Roberts would allow Wood to face No. 1 hitter George Springer for a third time. As statistics show, hitters perform better the third time they’ve seen a starting pitcher. During the 2017 regular season, hitters put up an aggregate .727 OPS the first time they faced a starter, a .782 OPS the second time, and an .803 OPS the third time. Makes sense.

Wood got Marwin Gonzalez to ground out and Brian McCann to strike out, bringing up Springer with his no-hitter intact. Wood fell behind Springer 3-0, got a fastball over for a strike to make it 3-1, then hung a curve that Springer hit pretty well for a home run. It went 394 feet, according to Statcast, breaking the 0-0 tie.

Immediately after the home run, some members of the Saber-slanted crowd on my Twitter feed crowed about Roberts letting Wood’s no-hitter get in the way of using strategy in line with data. The Dodgers, of course, are one of the most analytically-driven teams in baseball (as are the Astros), so letting Wood — a lefty — pitch to the right-handed Springer there for a third time with four more right-handed-hitting batters to follow was a peculiar decision, ignoring the active no-hit bid.

Springer’s triumph over Wood, though, wasn’t a vindication for this “third time through the order” avoidance strategy. It was one event — as small a non-zero sample as can be — and analytic types should know that results don’t justify the preceding decision. Hitting on 20 isn’t validated when the dealer flips over an ace for you. Years of data showing the actual third-time-through-the-order penalty justifies pulling Wood in that situation. Giving up the home run, or not, changes nothing. Wood just as easily could’ve gotten Springer to pop up or ground out. If that had happened, the third-time-through crowd wouldn’t have boasted but they would have been just as correct to clamor for relieving Wood.

And I could just as haughtily point out that Astros manager A.J. Hinch yanked starter Charlie Morton after giving up a one-out double to Cody Bellinger in the top of the seventh. Reliever Will Harris came in and yielded a run-scoring single with two outs to Logan Forsythe. If we’re just looking at results to justify strategy here, then yanking Morton for Harris was the wrong call. It wasn’t.

Every successful counter-culture movement has to learn how to deal with becoming the establishment. Sabermetrics is now the establishment in baseball. Every team has an analytics department. On-base percentage is finally valued more than batting average. Beat writers have begun incorporating numbers into their columns. The writers who built their careers using statistics to swat down bad narratives should be conscientious about becoming that which they fought against for so many years. Wood’s home run justifying third-time-through strategy is just a lazy narrative.

Skaggs Case: Federal Agents have interviewed at least six current or former Angels players

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The Los Angeles Times reports that federal agents have interviewed at least six current and former Angels players as part of their investigation into the death of Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs.

Among the players questioned: Andrew Heaney, Noé Ramirez, Trevor Cahill, and Matt Harvey. An industry source tells NBC Sports that the interviews by federal agents are part of simultaneous investigations into Skaggs’ death by United States Attorneys in both Texas and California.

There has been no suggestion that the players are under criminal scrutiny or are suspected of using opioids. Rather, they are witnesses to the ongoing investigation and their statements have been sought to shed light on drug use by Skaggs and the procurement of illegal drugs by him and others in and around the club.

Skaggs asphyxiated while under the influence of fentanyl, oxycodone, and alcohol in his Texas hotel room on July 1. This past weekend, ESPN reported that Eric Kay, the Los Angeles Angels’ Director of Communications, knew that Skaggs was an Oxycontin addict, is an addict himself, and purchased opioids for Skaggs and used them with him on multiple occasions. Kay has told DEA agents that, apart from Skaggs, at least five other Angels players are opioid users and that other Angels officials knew of Skaggs’ use. The Angels have denied Kay’s allegations.

In some ways this all resembles what happened in Pittsburgh in the 1980s, when multiple players were interviewed and subsequently called as witnesses in prosecutions that came to be known as the Pittsburgh Drug Trials. There, no baseball players were charged with crimes in connection with what was found to be a cocaine epidemic inside Major League clubhouses, but their presence as witnesses caused the prosecutions to be national news for weeks and months on end.