Adrian Beltre strengthens already-strong Hall of Fame case with 3,000th hit

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Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre just notched his 3,000th hit, which puts him in rarefied air. He’s the 31st player in baseball history to join the 3,000-hit club and only the second third baseman (having played at least 75 percent of his career games at the position) to do so along with Wade Boggs. This didn’t exactly sneak up on us; coming into the season, Beltre’s milestone was bound to happen as long as he stayed relatively healthy, entering the year with 2,942 hits. He got there despite missing the first two months of the season with a strained right calf.

Though achieving 3,000 hits garners a tremendous amount of respect, it still seems like he’s underrated. It’s not just the hits that make him good, it’s the power. He has 454 homers and 605 doubles in his career. The only other players with at least 400 homers and 600 doubles are Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, Stan Musial, Carl Yastrzemski, and Cal Ripken, Jr. All Hall of Famers, or should-be Hall of Famers.

Defense still isn’t nearly as easily quantified as offense, which may help explain why Beltre flies under the radar much of the time. He’s a five-time Gold Glove Award winner and that seems light. He won one last year at the age of 37, becoming the oldest player to win the award since Brooks Robinson in 1975. In doing so, Beltre had to beat out arguably the best defensive third baseman in baseball in Manny Machado.

How much has defense added to Beltre’s value? According to Baseball Reference, he’s saved 227 runs above average over his career, adding about 28 wins. As a result, Beltre has 92.4 career Wins Above Replacement. He’s one of 28 players in baseball history with at least 90 WAR. Only four of those 28 are third basemen: Mike Schmidt (106.6), Eddie Mathews (96.2), Beltre, and Boggs (91.1).

What also makes Beltre stand out is how productive he’s been while aging. Everyone remembers his 48-homer season back in 2004 as a 25-year-old with the Dodgers. While he never quite matched that season, he has overall been more productive in his 30’s than when he was younger. From age 19 to 29, he hit .271/.327/.459 with 242 home runs and 862 RBI in 6,400 plate appearances (HR every 26.4 PA and an RBI every 7.42 PA). From age 30 to 38, he hit .305/.355/.507 with 211 home runs and 740 RBI in 5,055 plate appearances (HR every 24 PA and an RBI every 6.8 PA). Beltre accrued 41.2 WAR through age 29 and 51.2 WAR since.

Last season, at 37, Beltre hit 32 homers and knocked in 104 runs. There are only 21 other player-seasons since 1901 in which a player hit at least 30 homers and drove in at least 100 runs at age 37 or older. The list includes Alfonso Soriano, Andres Galarraga, Babe Ruth (twice), Barry Bonds (twice), Carlton Fisk, David Ortiz (four times), Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, Fred McGriff (twice), Hank Aaron, Hank Sauer, Mike Schmidt, Moises Alou, and Rafael Palmeiro (twice). If we add another constraint, 30 doubles (Beltre had 31 last season), the list shrinks to nine. Of those nine, only five also hit .300 or better and Beltre was one of those five.

Beltre is having yet another strong season. Entering today’s action, he was hitting .310/.387/.538. He doesn’t and won’t have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, it’s still impressive. Since the mound was lowered in 1969, there are only 18 player-seasons in which a player 38 years old or older hit .300 or better with enough PA to qualify for the batting title. Barry Bonds, David Ortiz, Edgar Martinez, Eddie Murray, and Jeff Kent are the only players to slash .300/.375/.500 or better at the age of 38 or older.

In Hall of Fame discussions, players are often referred to as having been compilers, meaning that they played a lot of seasons, giving them more opportunities to add to their counting stats. Beltre played 20 seasons, which is longer than most players, even All-Star-caliber players. But Beltre wasn’t just a compiler. In 10 of those 20 seasons, he accrued at least five WAR which is typically an All-Star-caliber season and often enough to propel one into MVP discussions. Beltre racked up at least seven WAR in four seasons as well. He had both peak and longevity, which is typical of inner circle Hall of Famers.

Savor witnessing Beltre’s 3,000th hit, folks. You are witnessing not just one of the best third basemen of all time, but one of the best players, period. He’ll be properly enshrined in Cooperstown soon enough.

Jones, Maddux, Morris consider Bonds, Clemens for Hall

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COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Hall of Famers Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris and Ryne Sandberg are among 16 members of the contemporary baseball era committee that will meet to consider the Cooperstown fate of an eight-man ballot that includes Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro.

Hall of Famers Lee Smith, Frank Thomas and Alan Trammell also are on the panel, which will meet in San Diego ahead of the winter meetings.

They will be joined by former Toronto CEO Paul Beeston, former Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs executive Theo Epstein, Anaheim Angels owner Arte Moreno, Miami Marlins general manager Kim Ng, Minnesota Twins president Dave St. Peter and Chicago White Sox executive vice president Ken Williams.

Three media members/historians are on the committee: longtime statistical analyst Steve Hirdt of Stats Perform, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Neal and Slusser are past presidents of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

Hall Chairman Jane Forbes Clark will be the committee’s non-voting chair.

The ballot also includes Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy and Curt Schilling. The committee considers candidates whose careers were primarily from 1980 on. A candidate needs 75% to be elected and anyone who does will be inducted on July 23, along with anyone chosen in the BBWAA vote, announced on Jan. 24.

Bonds, Clemens and Schilling fell short in January in their 10th and final appearances on the BBWAA ballot. Bonds received 260 of 394 votes (66%), Clemens 257 (65.2%) and Schilling 231 (58.6%).

Palmeiro was dropped from the BBWAA ballot after receiving 25 votes (4.4%) in his fourth appearance in 2014, falling below the 5% minimum needed to stay on. His high was 72 votes (12.6%) in 2012.

Bonds denied knowingly using performance-enhancing drugs and Clemens maintains he never used PEDs. Palmeiro was suspended for 10 days in August 2005 following a positive test under the major league drug program, just over two weeks after getting his 3,000th hit.

A seven-time NL MVP, Bonds set the career home run record with 762 and the season record with 73 in 2001. A seven-time Cy Young Award winner, Clemens went 354-184 with a 3.12 ERA and 4,672 strikeouts, third behind Nolan Ryan (5,714) and Randy Johnson (4,875). Palmeiro had 3,020 hits and 568 homers.

Schilling fell 16 votes shy with 285 (71.1%) in 2021. Support dropped after hateful remarks he made in retirement toward Muslims, transgender people, reporters and others.

McGriff got 169 votes (39.8%) in his final year on the BBWAA ballot in 2019. Murphy was on the BBWAA ballot 15 times and received a high of 116 votes (23.2%) in 2000. Mattingly received a high of 145 votes (28.2%) in the first of 15 appearances on the BBWAA ballot in 2001, and Belle appeared on two BBWAA ballots, receiving 40 votes (7.7%) in 2006 and 19 (3.5%) in 2007.

Players on Major League Baseball’s ineligible list cannot be considered, a rule that excludes Pete Rose.

This year’s BBWAA ballot includes Carlos Beltran, John Lackey and Jered Weaver among 14 newcomers and Scott Rolen, Todd Helton and Billy Wagner among holdovers.