HardballTalk 2017 Home Run Derby Predictions

By Bill BaerJul 10, 2017, 7:30 PM EDT
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The Home Run Derby will be broadcast tonight at 8 PM ET on ESPN. It’s chock full of the game’s best sluggers, including defending champion Giancarlo Stanton who’ll try to repeat at his home park in Miami.

Here are the matchups with each player’s seed included in parentheses:

As we did last year, Craig, Ashley, and I have peered into our crystal ball to tell you exactly what’s going to happen tonight.

Craig

First Round

  • Sanchez upsets Stanton in the first round. UPSET OF THE CENTURY! Logan Morrison HANGS HIS HEAD IN SHAME!
  • Sano beats Moustakas
  • Judge KILLS Bour
  • Bellinger beats Blackmon

Second Round

  • Sano beats Sanchez — Gary peaks early and gets exhausted
  • Judge beats Bellinger

Finals

  • Judge beats Sano, launching 1000 “the torch has been passed” columns. Then Stanton kills him next year and normalcy is returned.

Ashley

First Round

  • Stanton over Sanchez
  • Sano over Moustakas
  • Judge over Bour
  • Bellinger over Blackmon

Life works out just as you expect it will. The established slugger vs. rookie slugger narrative lives on, and Miguel Sano and Cody Bellinger play their supporting roles with grace and dignity.

Second Round

  • Sano over Stanton
  • Judge over Bellinger

Stanton falls short of glory, prompting the Marlins to turn off the home run machine. If Bigfoot can’t hit all of the dingers, no dingers shall be celebrated with colorful lights, leaping fish and Lisa Frank levels of spectacle. Aaron Judge soldiers on.

Finals

  • Judge over Sano

Judge beats Sano by one mammoth home run, but fails to clear 500 feet. The ghost of Joe DiMaggio demands his rookie home run title back and sentences Judge to the curse of all Yankee Home Run Derby champions: the inability to repeat.

Bill

First Round

  • Sanchez holds his own, making Logan Morrison eat crow, but ultimately falls a couple homers short and Stanton moves on
  • Sano advances past Moustakas and hits the most home runs of any player in the first round
  • Bour beats Judge somehow
  • Blackmon takes down Bellinger, who will have the fewest home runs in the first round

Second Round

  • Sano gets gassed from hitting so many homers and Stanton moves on to the finals
  • Blackmon doesn’t stop hitting homers, breezes past Bour

Finals

  •  Stanton narrowly edges Blackmon to repeat as Home Run Derby champion

Feel free to leave your own predictions in the comments. Should be a fun night.

Two injured MVPs is a major bummer for baseball

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By Craig CalcaterraSep 16, 2019, 9:24 AM EDT
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Last week Christian Yelich‘s season ended with a fractured kneecap. At the time he went down he was neck-and-neck with Cody Bellinger — I think a tad behind, though people may reasonably differ — and, at least by my reckoning, a hair or three above Anthony Rendon, Ketel Marte and Pete Alonso in the race for the NL MVP Award. As I wrote last week, I think that means Bellinger is going to walk away with the hardware when the winner is announced in November. Yelich’s injury will prevent him from making a late season surge to surpass Bellinger, but I think it would’ve taken a surge for him to do it.

Over the weekend we learned that Mike Trout’s season is over as well. He’ll be having foot surgery to deal with a nerve issue causing him pain. At the time he went down he was the clear frontrunner to win his third MVP Award. Unlike Yelich, I’m pretty sure Trout will still win the trophy. Sure, Trout hasn’t played since September 7, meaning that he’ll miss more time than Yelich will, but strained articles stumping for alternative candidates notwithstanding, his lead in the MVP race was more secure.

Trout’s 2019 ends with him setting a career high in homers with 45 and slugging percentage at .645—both of which lead the American League. He likewise leads the league in on-base percentage (.438), OPS (1.083), and in both Baseball-Reference.com’s and FanGraphs’ versions of WAR at 8.3 and 8.6, respectively. With just under two weeks to go it seems likely that Jorge Soler of the Royals will pass Trout for the home run lead, but he’s not an MVP candidate himself. Alex Bregman will likely pass him in walks. Trout seems pretty certain to finish with his lead in all or most of the other categories intact. That’s an MVP resume even if he’ll only have played in 134 games. To give the award to anyone else would be an exercise in narrative over reason. Something born of a desire to reward a guy — like, say, Bregman — for playing on a winning team as opposed to his individual accomplishments. Sure, voters are allowed to do that, but they’ve mostly eschewed such tendencies in recent years. It’d be a surprise if they backslid.

Even if Yelich’s and Trout’s injuries aren’t likely to radically change the MVP race — again, I think the NL’s was Bellinger’s to lose — they’re both still lamentable separate and apart from the fact that all injuries stink. Lamentable in a way that, unfortunately, creates a downer for baseball as it gets ready for the postseason.

The Brewers won the game in which Yelich went down and have won four of five since then. In so doing they have remained close in the race for the second Wild Card and currently stand one game back. They also have an insanely favorable schedule the rest of the way, exclusively facing the weak sisters of the National League in the Padres, Pirates, Reds and Rockies. Even so, it’s no gimmie — those Reds and Rockies games are on the road, and Great American Ballpark and Coors Field makes those bad teams better — and the reward at the end of this is likely to be a one-game play-in. You want your best player in any and all situations and the Brewers don’t have theirs. And won’t, even if they make the postseason and even if they win the Wild Card game. Having one of the game’s brightest stars on crutches for the playoffs is not something anyone at the league office wants.

The Angels have no such postseason concerns and haven’t had them for most of the season. Once again they’re terrible. As they have been for almost the entirety of Trout’s career. They’ve made the postseason only once in his career — back in 2014, losing the LDS in three games — and do not appear poised to put a winner on the field any time soon. Trout is still in his prime, obviously, but like all players he’ll either slow down or break down eventually. Given the state of the club, I’m not sure I’d put a ton of money on them being good, let alone consistently good, while Trout is still the best or even one of the few best players in baseball. The upside to me seems to be an Al Kaline situation with the Tigers, in which the team finally put it together behind him only after he began to age and miss time to injuries. Having the best player in baseball outside of the playoffs looking in is not something anyone at the league office should want either.

Yet here we are.

Injuries happen. Every contender is missing at least one and in some cases several important players. But for one MVP candidate to miss the postseason this year and another one to miss the postseason every year is a major bummer for a league that has a tough go of it marketing itself even under the best of circumstances.