No, the Home Run Derby isn’t responsible for second-half swoons

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Around this time every year, you’ll hear and read from people who think players should avoid participating in the Home Run Derby because it leads to second-half swoons. Chris Davis is a common example. In the first half of the 2013 season, he had a 1.109 OPS with 37 home runs in 95 games (an average of one homer per 2.6 games). He participated in the Derby, getting eliminated after the second round. In the second half of the season, he had a comparatively meager .854 OPS with 16 home runs in 65 games (an average of one homer per 4.1 games).

A tweet circulated on my timeline earlier today which compiled the triple-slash lines of all Derby contestants over the past three years, comparing their first-half numbers to their second-half numbers. As a group, the second-half numbers were noticeably lower.

Maybe there were two or three players whose mechanics suffered as a result of participating in glorified batting practice. Maybe Davis is even one of them. But Derby contestants are players putting up some of the best numbers among their peers in the first half. Simple mean regression is a much better explanation for the disparity in production. You could take, for example, All-Stars whose first names begin with a certain letter and compare their first- and second-half production. My money would be on the first-half numbers being much higher than those of the second half. And that’s just because they belong to a group of first-half overperformers: All-Stars.

Indeed, there were 18 Derby participants since 2000 whose first name has started with J. 11 of them saw their OPS decline in the second half, including six players by more than 140 points. Only two participants saw their second-half OPS rise by more than 80 points. This simply proves the old adage, correlation does not imply causation.

Player Year 1st Half 2nd Half Diff
Jose Bautista 2011 1.170 .896 .274
Jose Bautista 2012 .899 .627 .272
Joc Pederson 2015 .851 .617 .234
Jim Edmonds 2003 1.066 .864 .202
Jim Thome 2004 1.059 .868 .191
Justin Morneau 2007 .844 .702 .142
Jermaine Dye 2006 1.043 .965 .078
Justin Morneau 2008 .903 .831 .072
Joe Mauer 2009 1.069 .998 .071
Jason Giambi 2003 .966 .898 .068
Josh Hamilton 2008 .919 .874 .045
Jason Giambi 2002 1.032 1.035 -.003
Justin Morneau 2014 .847 .883 -.036
Jose Bautista 2014 .910 .951 -.041
Jason Bay 2005 .930 .998 -.068
Josh Donaldson 2014 .766 .844 -.078
Jason Giambi 2001 1.082 1.202 -.120
Josh Donaldson 2015 .884 1.011 -.127

The Derby-as-swing-ruiner hypothesis has been thoroughly debunked over the years, so I am not breaking new ground here. But it’s good to have a reminder that your favorite player’s second-half swoon is almost certainly due to good old fashioned mean regression and the Home Run Derby shouldn’t be made the scapegoat.

No lease extension, but Orioles and governor tout partnership

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The Baltimore Orioles and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore announced a joint commitment to what they called a “multi-decade, public-private partnership” to revitalize the Camden Yards sports complex.

The statement from the team and the state’s new governor came Wednesday, the deadline for the Orioles to exercise a one-time, five-year extension to their lease at Camden Yards. The team was not planning to exercise that option, according to a person with knowledge of the decision. The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the club hadn’t announced its decision.

With no extension, the lease is set to expire at the end of this year, but the team and the Maryland Stadium Authority can keep negotiating. Wednesday’s joint release seemed to be an attempt to calm any nerves in Baltimore about the team’s future.

“I am looking forward to continuing to collaborate with Governor Moore, his administration, and the Maryland Stadium Authority in order to bring to Baltimore the modern, sustainable, and electrifying sports and entertainment destination the state of Maryland deserves,” Orioles CEO John Angelos said.

“We greatly appreciate Governor Moore’s vision and commitment as we seize the tremendous opportunity to redefine the paradigm of what a Major League Baseball venue represents and thereby revitalize downtown Baltimore. It is my hope and expectation that, together with Governor Moore and the new members and new chairman of the MSA board, we can again fully realize the potential of Camden Yards to serve as a catalyst for Baltimore’s second renaissance.”

Republican Larry Hogan, the state’s previous governor, signed a bill last year increasing bond authorization for M&T Bank Stadium, home of the Baltimore Ravens, and Camden Yards. The measure allowed borrowing of up to $600 million for each stadium.

“When Camden Yards opened 30 years ago, the Baltimore Orioles revolutionized baseball and set the bar for the fan experience,” Moore, a Democrat, said Wednesday. “We share the commitment of the Orioles organization to ensuring that the team is playing in a world-class facility at Camden Yards for decades to come and are excited to advance our public-private partnership.”

Angelos recently reaffirmed that the Orioles would stay in Baltimore, although he dressed down a reporter who asked for more clarity on the future of the team’s ownership situation. Angelos was sued last year by his brother Lou, who claimed John Angelos seized control of the Orioles at his expense.