2017 Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2017 season. Next up: The Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers flexed their payroll muscle over the winter not to bring in new talent, but to keep talent in town. The club re-signed starter Rich Hill to a three-year, $48 million deal in mid-December. It inked third baseman Justin Turner to a four-year, $64 million contract just before Christmas. Closer Kenley Jansen agreed to stay with a five-year, $80 million deal. The Dodgers also acquired infielder Logan Forsythe from the Rays in January, signed reliever Sergio Romo to a one-year, $3 million deal, signed outfielder Franklin Gutierrez at one year, $2.6 million, and brought second baseman Chase Utley back at one year, $2 million.

The Dodgers went 91-71 last year, finishing first in the NL West. They advanced past the Nationals in the NLDS into the NLCS where they were stopped in six games by the eventual champion Cubs. One can understand GM Farhan Zaidi’s reluctance to alter the roster in a significant way.

Going into 2017, the Dodgers’ success starts and ends with Clayton Kershaw. There’s not a better pitcher on the planet and his ability to make 33 starts or not will play a big role in whether or not the club makes it into the postseason. Not just because of Kershaw himself, but because the Dodgers don’t have the most reliable pitching depth health-wise. Last year, Kershaw was bothered by a back injury and made only 21 starts. But when he was on the mound, he was his usual dominating self, finishing with a 12-4 record, a 1.69 ERA, and a 172/11 K/BB ratio in 149 innings. Had Kershaw not gotten injured during the summer, he almost certainly would have won his fourth National League Cy Young Award.

Kenta Maeda slots in behind Kershaw. The right-hander had a terrific debut in Major League Baseball in 2016, winning 16 games with a 3.48 ERA and a 179/50 K/BB ratio in 175 2/3 innings. The Dodgers don’t have a lot of reliability in the rotation, but after his first season in the bigs and given everyone else’s health issues, Maeda is the most reliable starter at the moment.

Hill returns into the middle of the rotation. Due to a blister issue, Hill made only six regular season starts for the Dodgers after they acquired him from the Athletics on August 1. The lefty put up a sterling 1.83 ERA with a 39/5 K/BB ratio in 34 1/3 innings, continuing his remarkable reinvention which started in September 2015. The 37-year-old lefty was in independent baseball as recently as two years ago and now has a lucrative multi-year contract under his belt.

Scott Kazmir is tentatively in the rotation. He’s been bothered by a hip issue this spring and has had limited action as a result. He recently made a simulated start but his fastball velocity was in the low-80’s, concerning manager Dave Roberts. Kazmir will throw in a minor league game soon and the Dodgers hope he’ll be ready for the start of the regular season. Obviously, it’s no guarantee. The left-hander last season finished with a disappointing 4.56 ERA with a 134/52 K/BB ratio in 136 1/3 innings.

The last spot in the rotation is up for grabs. It won’t go to Julio Urias, as he has not been stretched out this spring and will almost certainly begin the year at Triple-A Oklahoma City. Brandon McCarthy appears to be the favorite for the job but he has A) not had a great spring; B) has been injury-prone during his 11-year career; and C) has been ineffective for most of the last three years. Hyun-Jin Ryu is also under consideration after missing the entire 2015 season and making just one start last year. Brock Stewart was a candidate but he was recently shut down due to tendinitis in his right shoulder, so he won’t be ready for the start of the season. Ross Stripling will likely be used as rotation depth as he posted a 3.96 ERA over 14 starts and eight relief appearances last year.

Jansen returns to his role as the Dodgers’ closer. He’s racked up 180 saves over the last five seasons, something only two other relievers – Craig Kimbrel (209) and Aroldis Chapman (181) – have done. Despite playing in L.A., Jansen flew under the radar until last year, when he finished with a 1.83 ERA and a ridiculous 104/11 K/BB ratio in 68 2/3 innings. He made his first All-Star team last year and he’ll likely get there a second time in 2017.

Romo will set up for Jansen assuming he’s healty. Romo has been bothered by a back injury lately in spring training. The right-hander pitched nine outstanding years with the Giants, ascending to the closer’s role in 2013, but a shaky ’14 cast him out of favor, but he rebounded with a 2.98 ERA in ’15 and 2.64 last year. Romo is 34 years old and sits in the mid- to high-80’s with his fastball, but the Dodgers found quite a bargain in signing him.

Pedro Baez has been battling a thumb injury this spring but is expected to be ready for the start of the regular season. He’ll handle the seventh inning ahead of Romo and some occasional eighth innings. The right-hander posted a 3.04 ERA with an 83/22 K/BB ratio in 74 innings. Jansen-Romo-Baez makes for a scary back of the bullpen.

On offense, let’s start with Turner at the hot corner. Turner reinvented himself several years ago after floating from the Mets to the Dodgers and has become one of the best at his position despite still never having made an All-Star team. Since joining the Dodgers for the 2014 season, Turner has hit a combined .296/.364/.492 with 50 home runs and 193 RBI in 1,383 plate appearances while playing quality defense. As a result, Turner has the sixth-most Wins Above Replacement among third basemen in that period of time, according to FanGraphs. The only knock on Turner is his durability. Despite playing 151 games last year, he played in 126 in ’15 and 109 in ’14.

Corey Seager returns to shortstop after winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2016. He hit .308/.365/.512 with 26 home runs and 72 RBI in 687 PA. He’ll turn 23 at the end of April which means we likely haven’t seen Seager’s final form yet. He was the best at his position in a field that included the likes of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. Seager could follow Kris Bryant’s footsteps in winning the ROY one year and the MVP the next.

Forsythe will handle second base for the Dodgers as one of the few new faces in camp. Last year with the Rays, he hit .264/.333/.444 with 20 home runs, 52 RBI, and 76 runs scored in 567 PA. Veteran Chase Utley will back Forsythe up and may get the occasional start against a right-handed pitcher.

Adrian Gonzalez, of course, will handle first base for the Dodgers again. Going by adjusted OPS (OPS+), 2016 was Gonzalez’s worst offensive season since he became an everyday player in 2006. Still, he was productive, batting .285/.349/.435 with 18 homers and 90 RBI. Almost 35 years old, Gonzalez is likely hitting the decline phase of his career, but he still has plenty left in the tank. There is one issue – Gonzalez has been dealing with an elbow injury and won’t play in any spring games until at least Thursday. The Dodgers expect him to be ready for Opening Day, however.

Yasmani Grandal will catch and handle the pitching staff on a regular basis. Now 28 years old, the veteran of five seasons is coming off of a campaign during which he hit .228/.339/.477 with 27 HR and 72 RBI, setting career-bests in the latter two departments. He’s one of the best offensive catchers in the league at a position that really isn’t relied upon for offense, so that will serve as a big plus for the Dodgers again. Austin Barnes will back Grandal up behind the dish.

The Dodgers’ outfield is in a state of flux. Andre Ethier played in only 16 games last season due to a broken leg and he’s currently battling a back injury. Yasiel Puig was demoted to the minor leagues last year. Joc Pederson is completely lost against left-handed pitching, putting up a .469 OPS against them last year. Beyond Pederson starting against right-handers and Puig getting a shot to prove himself, nothing else is set in stone in the Dodgers’ outfield. Andrew Toles, who impressed with an .870 OPS in 115 PA last season, may get more time in the outfield corners. Gutierrez put up a solid .780 OPS in 98 games last year, but he has long been a health risk. Scott Van Slyke had the worst season of his career and then underwent wrist surgery last August.

Needless to say, health will be a determining factor in the Dodgers’ ability to rediscover success in 2017. At near or full health, the Dodgers are one of the best teams in the National League. Without the likes of Kershaw, Hill, and Gonzalez, they are a slightly above-average team. I’ll make a perhaps foolish bet on most of their key players missing minimal amounts of time, allowing them to stave off the Giants in the NL West.

Prediction: 93-69 record, 1st place in division

Rutschman has five hits in opener, Orioles outlast Red Sox 10-9

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BOSTON – The last time Adley Rutschman recalls feeling this level of emotion on a baseball field was playing in front of intimate, 5,000-seat crowds in college at Oregon State.

He trumped that experience at Fenway Park on Thursday in his first career opening day start.

“This blows that out of the water,” Rutschman said.

Rutschman became the first catcher in major league history with five hits in an opener, and the Baltimore Orioles survived a wild ninth inning to beat the Boston Red Sox 10-9.

“To have that close game in the ninth inning and the crowd get so loud. You kind of sit there and say, ‘This is pretty cool,’” said Rutschman, the top overall pick in the 2019 draft.

Rutschman – who debuted for the Orioles last May and quickly became indispensable to the young, resurgent club – homered in his first at-bat and finished 5-for-5 with a career-best four RBIs and a walk on a chilly day at Fenway Park, with a temperature of 38 degrees at first pitch.

Ramon Urias hit a two-run homer for Baltimore, which finished with 15 hits, nine walks and five stolen bases.

Kyle Gibson (1-0) allowed four runs and six hits over five-plus innings to earn his first opening-day victory since his 2021 All-Star season with Texas. Gibson gave up an RBI groundout in the first inning before retiring nine straight Red Sox hitters.

The Orioles nearly gave the game away in the ninth.

With Baltimore leading 10-7, closer Félix Bautista walked pinch-hitter Raimel Tapia. Alex Verdugo followed with a single and advanced to second on an error by center fielder Cedric Mullins.

Rafael Devers struck out. Justin Turner then reached on an infield single to third when Urias’ throw was wide, scoring Tapia. Masataka Yoshida grounded to shortstop Jorge Mateo, who stepped on second for the force but threw wildly to first, allowing Verdugo to score.

Bautista struck out Adam Duvall on three pitches to end it and earn the save.

The Orioles scored four runs in the fourth and three in the fifth to take an 8-2 lead. Baltimore led 10-4 before Bryan Baker allowed three runs in the eighth to give the Red Sox some hope.

The eighth could have been even better for the Red Sox had Devers, who led off the inning, not become the first player in major league history to strike out on a pitch clock violation. Devers was looking down and kicking debris off his cleats when umpire Lance Barksdale signaled a violation that resulted in strike three.

“There’s no excuse,” said Alex Cora, who dropped to 0-5 in opening-day games as Boston’s manager. “They know the rules.”

Boston offseason addition and two-time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber (0-1) struggled in his Fenway debut, surrendering five runs on six hits and four walks in 3 1/3 innings.

“Less than ideal,” Kluber said. “Didn’t turn out the way I would have hoped for.”

TRAINER’S ROOM

Red Sox: Christian Arroyo stayed in the game after taking an inadvertent cleat to the side of his head in the second inning. Arroyo was applying a tag to Rutschman at second base as he attempted to stretch out a single. Rutschman’s leg flipped over as he slid awkwardly. … LHP James Paxton was placed on the 15-day inured list (retroactive to March 27) with a strained right hamstring.

GOOD COMPANY

Rutschman, one of six Baltimore players making his first opening-day appearance, became the youngest Oriole to homer in his first opening-day at-bat since Cal Ripken Jr. in 1984.

BIG BAGS

The Orioles took advantage of MLB’s bigger bases – going from 15- to 18-inch squares – that are being used for the first time this season. Baltimore hadn’t stolen five bases in a game since last June 24 against the White Sox. Mullins and Jorge Mateo swiped two bags apiece, and Adam Frazier got a huge jump on his steal against reliever Ryan Brasier. There was nothing Boston catcher Reese McGuire could do to stop them and on the majority of Baltimore’s steals, he didn’t bother to throw.

FINAL SPOTS

Right-hander Kaleb Ort and Tapia earned Boston’s final two roster spots to open the season. Tapia got the nod over Jarren Duran, who was sent down to Triple-A Worcester. Ort pitched a scoreless sixth with one strikeout Thursday.

UP NEXT

Orioles: RHP Dean Kremer will make is sixth career start against Boston when the three-game series resumes on Saturday. In 11 road starts last season, he went 5-3 with a 3.63 ERA.

Red Sox: LHP Chris Sale, who has pitched in only 11 games over the past three years due to injuries, is set to begin his seventh season in Boston.