Looking for future members of the 3,000 hit club

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Marlins outfielder Ichiro Suzuki became the 30th member to join the 3,000 hit club when he tripled to right field at Coors Field on Sunday afternoon. Natually, that has led many to wonder who will become the next member of the club. And that’s easy: Adrian Beltre, who’s 37 years old. He has 2,878 career hits now and he’ll likely get another 50 hits before the season is over. Barring injury, a sudden massive decline in skill, or an abrupt retirement, Beltre gets there easily next year.

Beyond Beltre, Albert Pujols has 2,774 career hits. While he’s not the player he used to be, Pujols will simply need to average around 100 hits over the next two seasons. Health and playing time will be the biggest obstacles for him, but he’s under contract through 2021 earning close to $30 million annually each season.

Then there’s Miguel Cabrera, who has 2,459 career hits. He’s 33 years old and is still one of baseball’s very best hitters, batting .308 this season with a .929 OPS. Prior to last season, when he missed some time with an injury, Cabrera logged 190-plus hits in four consecutive seasons. Even if we account for a decline in skill as Cabrera progresses from his mid-thirties into his late-thirties, he almost certainly gets to 3,000 hits by 2019. He’s under contract through at least 2023, earning over $30 million annually on average. The biggest worry for Cabrera, as it is for any older player, is health.

Robinson Cano has a decent shot, currently with 2,146 hits. He’s averaged 185 hits per season from age 30 to 32 and will probably get to 190 total hits by the end of this season. If we account for age-related decline and give Cano credit for 165 hits per season from age 34 to 38, he would get to 3,000 in 2021.

Looking at the other members on the active hits leaderboard, no one else really stands out. Carlos Beltran has 2,570 hits but is 39 years old. Jimmy Rollins hasn’t played since June and has under 2,500 hits.

Players on track to be in the conversation about a decade from now are Andrew McCutchen (29 years old; 1,247 career hits), Jose Altuve (26; 985), Bryce Harper (23, 611) and Mike Trout (25, 868). [Edit: After reconsideration, I removed Buster Posey and Paul Goldschmidt from this list.]

There’s a reason only 30 players have joined the 3,000 hit club in about 150 years. For a player to accrue 3,000 hits, he must avoid serious injuries (and other reasons for missing large chunks of games, like being suspended), have the desire to have a long career, and stay well ahead of the aging curve. Knowing this only engenders further appreciation of what Suzuki did over a 16-year career in the major leagues.

Nationals blow 6-run lead, rebound to beat Phillies 8-7

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WASHINGTON (AP) Lane Thomas singled in the go-ahead run in the eighth inning and the Washington Nationals sent the Philadelphia Phillies to their fifth straight loss, winning 8-7 after blowing a six-run lead.

The defending NL champion Phillies have just five victories in their last 18 games and are tied with the Nationals at the bottom of the NL East at 25-32.

“We’ve got to overcome it,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “We’ve got to play better, get consistent in all phases and keep moving forward.”

Alex Call drew a two-out walk against Connor Brogdon (2-1) in the eighth, stole second on a low pitch that catcher JT Realmuto couldn’t make a throw on and scored on Thomas’ single to right center.

“The way Lane’s swinging the bat, if you can get on second base, we can win the game,” Call said. “I look over and the ball’s in the dirt, he doesn’t catch it. Now I’m saying: ‘All right, Lane. Come on!’”

Kyle Finnegan (3-2) pitched 1 2/3 innings for the victory, stranding the tying run on second in the ninth.

Nick Castellanos homered twice, singled, doubled and drove in five runs for Philadelphia, which had scored just three runs in its past three games.

“There’s definitely a lot of positives as a group,” Castellanos said. “Showing some fight. It would have been really, really easy to lay down and allow the way the game started to be the way that it finished.”

Down 7-1 after four innings, Philadelphia tied it at 7 in the eighth. Brandon Marsh worked a nine-pitch walk against Mason Thompson leading off, and Drew Ellis singled with one out. Finnegan came on to face Kyle Schwarber, who hit a ground ball up the middle. Shortstop CJ Abrams fielded it behind it behind second base, touched second for one out, but threw wildly to first and Marsh came home with the tying run.

Castellanos’s second homer, a two-run shot to center in the sixth, pulled the Phillies to 7-3 and Marsh added an RBI single in the inning.

In the seventh, Schwarber doubled with one out and Bryson Scott reached on an infield single. Hunter Harvey came on and walked Bryce Harper to load the bases. Castellanos singled to center scoring two runs to make it 7-6.

Luis Garcia homered and Jeimer Candelario doubled twice and drove in three runs for the Nationals, who have won seven of 12.

Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler, coming off eight shutout innings against Atlanta, allowed seven runs on eight hits in 3 2/3 innings.

“This one’s on me really,” Wheeler said. “Guys battled back. Just couldn’t finish it out. We know who we have in this room and what we’ve got to do.”

Josiah Gray gave up four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings for Washington.

Candelario doubled just beyond the reach of left fielder Schwarber to drive in the first of Washington’s two runs in the first.

In the second, Abrams hit a one-out drive to deep center that Marsh misplayed into a double. With two outs and two on, Candelario doubled off the wall in right center to make it 5-0.

Garcia ended Wheeler’s night with a solo homer in the fourth.

“When you come out the way we did, you’ve got to tack on,” Nationals manager Dave Martinez said. “It didn’t happen tonight, but we got one more than the other guys.”


Candelario is 9 for 26 (.346) with four doubles, a home run, nine RBIs, five walks, and seven runs scored in his last seven games.


Phillies: Thomson said RHP Taijuan Walker played catch Friday and there are “no worries about his next start.” In a four-inning outing against the Mets on Thursday, Walker’s sinker velocity averaged 90.6 mph, down from 92.7 mph for the season. His fastball, splitter and curveball velocity also dropped.

Nationals: OF Victor Robles (back spasms) took batting practice on the field for the first time since going on the injured list. … LHP Sean Doolittle (elbow) gave up a run on two hits and struck out two batters in 2/3 of an inning working his second straight night for Class A Fredericksburg.


Phillies: LHP Matt Strahm (4-3, 3.20) will start a bullpen game on Saturday.

Nationals: LHP MacKenzie Gore (3-3, 3.57) went seven innings and struck out a career-high 11 batters in his previous outing – a no decision against the Royals.

AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/mlb and https://twitter.com/AP-Sports