Reminder: Most of what we know about innings limits are just guesses

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A lot of the conversation about Matt Harvey and the to-shutdown-or-not-to-shutdown controversy bubbling up between him, the Mets and Scott Boras is based on the assumption that Harvey needs to have some limit on his innings. And, in the grand scheme, he does. Just like any pitcher does.

But that’s a macro-thing, right? We know that someone pitching 500 innings is bad. We know that if a pitcher is not used at all, he won’t hurt himself. But despite what a lot of people will say, even people who know a lot about pitching and ballplayer health, we have nothing approaching a definitive handle on how much is too much for healthy players, recovering-from-surgery players or anyone else. There is no one who has any precise insight on a granular level about this stuff. Not even the doctors who replace the ligaments.

Against that backdrop, Jeff Passan’s column on all of this today is some good, useful reading. The money graf:

If Matt Harvey is listening to his arm but doesn’t want to share publicly what it’s saying, that’s fair and understandable. If that’s not the case, though – if his arm feels fine 166-plus innings into this fantastic season of his and the Mets’ – then he’s making a false choice, because there is no guarantee, nothing even close to the sort, that limiting his innings this season will keep him any healthier going into the future.

Passan is writing a book on Tommy John surgery and has likely talked to more people on the subject than anyone this side of Dr. James Andrews. If, after all of his research, he hasn’t found someone with good, reliable data and ideas on the topic of how many innings are too much, ain’t no one gonna.

Which goes back to what we said about this over the weekend and what Passan is saying elsewhere in this column: pain, fatigue, mechanics, command and general gut feeling is a way better judge of whether Matt Harvey is being pushed too hard than some number of innings in and of itself. Watching for that stuff, then, is way more useful than watching the “IP” column on Baseball-Reference.com.

Ron Roenicke fired by Red Sox after one season

Mary Holt-USA TODAY Sports
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BOSTON — Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke will not return in 2021, the team said before its final game on Sunday, ending his tenure as a one-year, shotgun stopgap for a pandemic-shortened season with a last-place finish in the AL East.

Hired on the eve of spring training after Alex Cora was caught cheating during his time in Houston, Roenicke took over a roster that would soon shed 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts and 2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price, who were traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ace Chris Sale (Tommy John surgery) and Eduardo Rodriguez (COVID-19) never threw a pitch for the team this year.

Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom also commended Roenicke for navigating the coronavirus shutdown and for holding the team together when racial protests interrupted the season.

“He did a tremendous job under really challenging and basically unprecedented circumstances,” said Bloom, who met with Roenicke in Atlanta on Sunday morning to give him the news.

“As you would expect, he handled it really well. Probably better than I did,” Bloom said on a Zoom call. “I think he is just an incredible human being.”

Sure to get attention as a possible successor: Cora, who led the Red Sox to a World Series championship in 2018, his first season as a major league manager. The team split with him less than a month before spring training after he was identified as the ringleader in the Houston sign-stealing scandal; Cora’s one-year suspension for that scandal ends after the World Series.

With Cora gone, the Red Sox promoted Roenicke from bench coach to interim manager. They removed the temporary tag in April, during the coronavirus shutdown, when Roenicke was cleared in the commissioner’s investigation into sign-stealing by the Red Sox during their championship season.

He was not given an extension on the one year he had remaining on the contract he had signed as a bench coach — fueling speculation that Cora could be welcomed back after serving his penalty.

The Red Sox dismissed such suggestions dismissed such suggestions at the time, but on Sunday Bloom refused to rule a return either in or out.

“I thought Ron deserved to be evaluated without anyone looking over his shoulder,” Bloom said, declining to comment further because “I don’t want to say anything about Alex that I haven’t said to Alex.”

Roenicke, 64, spent five years as the Brewers manager from 2010-15, winning 96 games and the NL Central title in his first season and finishing as runner-up for NL manager of the year. In all, he led Milwaukee to a 342-331 record in five seasons.

He was 23-36 with the Red Sox entering Sunday’s games. Bloom said he wanted to break the news to Roenicke before the end of the season.

“If Ron wanted the chance to look his players in the eye before we part ways … I didn’t want to take that from him,” Bloom said.

An infielder on Boston’s 2007 champions, Cora was mentioned 11 times in Commissioner Rob Manfred’s decision on the Astros, which said Cora developed the cheating system. Cora left Houston to become Boston’s manager after the 2017 season and led the Red Sox to a franchise-record 108 regular-season wins and the World Series title.

But fallout from the Astros investigation caused Cora and newly hired New York Mets manager Carlos Beltran to lose their jobs.