Cole Hamels’ trade value shouldn’t change based on Saturday’s start, but it might

38 Comments

On Friday afternoon, ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweeted the thoughts of an unnamed baseball executive, who said this of the Phillies’ starter Saturday versus the Cubs, Cole Hamels:

“He’s pitched in playoffs & WS. But for that front office this may be biggest start he’s ever had”

The implication, of course, is that Hamels’ trade value stands to change based on how well he performs at Wrigley Field on Saturday afternoon. The lefty heads into the start with 1,921 career innings over which he’s compiled a 3.31 ERA with a strikeout-to-walk ratio approaching four-to-one. Among starters who have accrued at least 500 innings since 2010, Hamels has the seventh-best ERA.

Hamels has a mediocre 3.91 ERA this season, however, and has been hammered in each of his last two starts. He allowed nine runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Giants on July 10, and five runs in three innings against the Marlins on Sunday. His track record over 1,921 innings should be weighted significantly more than his last 6 1/3 innings and what he does Saturday.

John Stolnis at SB Nation’s Phillies blog The Good Phight raises a good point. What his trade value should be contingent on is one thing, but what it actually is based on is another thing. And there many be a handful of front office types who will decide whether or not to pursue Hamels in a trade based on what they see him do against the likes of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Jorge Soler. It’s not good science and it’s not a good methodology on which to base important business decisions, but it’s used nevertheless. So that unnamed executive very well may be right: Hamels’ start against the Cubs on Saturday could be the most important start he’s made since helping the team win Game 5 of the 2008 World Series.

White Sox, Rockies, “frontrunners” for Yasiel Puig

Getty Images
Leave a comment

Yasiel Puig, unexpectedly, remained unemployed for the entire offseason. But now, a week or so into spring training, it’s appearing as though he may soon have a job. That’s the word from Hector Gomez of Z101, who reports that the Rockies and White Sox have emerged as “frontrunners” to sign the guy.

Puig hit a .252/.302/.475 (92 OPS+) for the Reds before being traded to the Indians. Once in Cleveland his performance improved, however, as he hit .297/.377/.423 (109 OPS+). Definitely a down year overall, and a far cry from the sort of superstar performance he showcased when he first broke into the league, but he’s just 29 and still profiles as an above average big league outfielder, on defense and at the plate.

He’d certainly benefit from playing in the thin air of Colorado. He’d also look pretty spiffy in the White Sox’ lineup, though he’d likely have to assume a platoon role there. Which, given that he as better in that role toward the end of his tenure in Los Angeles, would not be the worst idea. He didn’t like it all that much, but at the moment, he needs to find a job.

Anyway, look for Puig to be off the market soon.