2015 Preview: Detroit Tigers

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Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2015 season. Next up: The Detroit Tigers.

The Big Question: Are the Tigers falling apart?

Detroit has had a very impressive run of success built around bold trades, big-money investments, and a roster full of star power, winning four straight AL Central division titles and a pair of American League pennants. Brad Ausmus took over for Jim Leyland as manager last season and kept things rolling with 90 wins, but the Tigers were swept out of the playoffs by the Orioles and enter 2015 with a lot of question marks thanks to injuries, free agent departures, and an aging core.

Detroit finished last season with three former Cy Young winners in the rotation, but Max Scherzer is gone, signing a $210 million deal with the Nationals after going 39-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 492 strikeouts in 435 innings for the Tigers during the past two seasons. Justin Verlander is still around–he’s signed through 2018 at a cost of $28 million per year–but looked like a shell of his former self last year while allowing the most earned runs in the league.

Detroit’s biggest star, two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera, failed to top a .900 OPS last season for the first time since 2008 and underwent offseason surgeries on his foot and ankle. Cabrera actually thrived down the stretch despite being beat up physically, but at age 31 and one year into a $248 million deal he’s been hobbled an awful lot recently.

Victor Martinez had a career-year at age 35 and then re-signed with the Tigers for $68 million, but now he’s at risk to miss Opening Day after tearing the meniscus in his left knee during offseason workouts. Concussions have made Alex Avila a question mark behind the plate. Joe Nathan appears to be on his last legs despite being a $10 million closer. Anibal Sanchez’s arm acting up again limited him to 126 innings. Jose Iglesias needs to show that he can solidify the shortstop position after shin problems knocked him out for all of 2014.

You get the idea. If healthy the Tigers’ star power is still unmatched in the American League, but nearly every impact player’s health and/or production is an issue. Fortunately for the Tigers no other AL Central team looks particularly strong this season and it may not take another 90 wins to claim the division title, which is why they remain the consensus favorites.

What else is going on?

  • Yoenis Cespedes was the Tigers’ big offseason pickup, coming over from the Red Sox in exchange for 25-year-old starter Rick Porcello. In addition to his big-time power Cespedes injects some much-needed upside into the lineup. Cespedes is generally talked about as being a much more fearsome hitter than his modest .780 career OPS would suggest and Detroit is betting on him making The Leap at age 29 because Porcello took a big step forward himself with a 3.43 ERA in 205 innings last season.
  • Despite losing Scherzer and trading Porcello the Tigers still have more than $70 million invested in the starting rotation and David Price is 33 starts away from free agency. They need Verlander to bounce back in a huge way and they need Sanchez to stay healthy for 175-plus innings, but the Tigers are also counting on the success Alfredo Simon had with the Reds last year carrying over despite his sub par strikeout rate of 5.8 per nine innings not matching his raw stuff. He’s obviously not going to replace Scherzer, but more or less replacing Porcello would be key.
  • Bullpen problems have plagued the Tigers and signing Nathan to an expensive two-year deal compounded the problem instead of fixing it. Nathan now looks more like a middle reliever than a closer, which could lead to Joakim Soria stepping into ninth-inning duties. Joba Chamberlain was re-signed to fill a setup role despite mixed results last season and Ausmus figures to count on Tom Gorzelanny to get lots of key outs versus left-handed hitters. There’s plenty of talent in the bullpen, but if the relief corps is once again a weakness in 2015 the Tigers’ rotation may not be quite as able to carry the pitching staff.
  • J.D. Martinez’s breakout 2014 season being for real is a huge key in 2015 and beyond. Martinez was once a top prospect in the Astros’ farm system, but then he hit just .251 with a .687 OPS in 252 games through age 25. Houston released him, Detroit snatched him up, and Martinez went on to hit .315 with 23 homers and a .912 OPS in 123 games last season. He’s a big reason why Detroit’s lineup could be scary for opposing pitchers.
  • Detroit’s recent success has revolved around power arms and power bats, but the Tigers have shifted their focus to add more defense of late by acquiring Iglesias, center fielder Anthony Gose, second baseman Ian Kinsler, and outfield speedster Rajai Davis. And ditching Torii Hunter in right field will also help, as the 39-year-old former Gold Glove-winning center fielder rated as one of MLB’s worst defenders statistically in 2014. It’s a much more balanced offense/defense approach, at least in theory.

Prediction: It won’t always be pretty, but 86 wins takes home the most mediocre on-paper division in baseball.

Astros owner Crane expects to hire new manager by Feb. 3

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HOUSTON (AP) — Houston Astros owner Jim Crane expects to hire a new manager by Feb. 3.

The Astros need a new manager and general manager after AJ Hinch and Jeff Luhnow were fired Monday, hours after both were suspended by Major League Baseball for a year for the team’s sign-stealing scandal.

Crane said Friday that he’s interviewed a number of candidates this week and has some more to talk to in the coming days.

Crane refused to answer directly when asked if former Astros player and Hall of Famer Craig Biggio was a possibility for the job. But he did say that he had spoken to Biggio, fellow Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell and former Astros star Lance Berkman in the days since the firings.

“We’ve talked to all of our Killer B’s,” Crane said referring to the nickname the three shared while playing for the Astros. “They’ve contacted me and they’ve all expressed that they would like to help. Berkman, Bagwell, Biggio have all called and said: ‘hey, if there’s anything I can do, I’m here for you.’”

“So we’ll continue to visit with those guys and see if there’s something there.”

Crane says his list is still rather extensive and that he hopes to have it narrowed down by the end of next week. He added that he expects most of Hinch’s staff to stay in place regardless of who is hired.

Crane has enlisted the help of three or four employees to help him with the interview process, including some in Houston’s baseball operations department.

“We compare notes,” he said. “I’ve learned a long time ago that you learn a lot if four or five people talk to a key candidate and you get a lot more information. So that’s what we’re doing.”

Crane’ top priority is finding a manager with spring training less than a month away, but he said he would start focusing on the search for a general manager after he hires a manager. He expects to hire a GM before the end of spring training.

“We should have another good season with the team pretty much intact … so I don’t know why a manager wouldn’t want to come in and manage these guys,” he said. “They’re set to win again.”

The penalties announced by MLB commissioner Rob Manfred on Monday came after he found illicit use of electronics to steal signs in Houston’s run to the 2017 World Series championship and again in the 2018 season. The Astros were also fined $5 million, which is the maximum allowed under the Major League Constitution, and must forfeit their next two first- and second-round amateur draft picks.

The investigation found that the Astros used the video feed from a center field camera to see and decode the opposing catcher’s signs. Players banged on a trash can to signal to batters what was coming, believing it would improve the batter’s odds of getting a hit.

With much still in flux, Crane was asked what qualities are most important to him in his next manager.

“Someone mature that can handle the group,” he said. “Someone that’s had a little bit of experience in some areas. We’ve just got to find a leader that can handle some pressure and there’s going to be a little bit of pressure from where this team has been in the last few months.”

Despite his comment about experience, Crane said having been a major league manager before is not mandatory to him.

“We made some mistakes,” he said. “We made a decision to let that get behind us. We think the future is bright. We’ll make the adjustments … people think we’re in crisis. I certainly don’t believe that.”