UPDATE: Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times hears from a source that the Dodgers are indeed out of the Lester sweepstakes. It’s a two-team race between the Red Sox and Cubs.
9:32 p.m. ET: The Dodgers are also apparently out, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that it’s down to the Red Sox or Cubs.
9:23 p.m. ET: And then there were three. After Giants assistant general manager Bobby Evans said earlier today that the club was in the “back seat” for free agent left-hander Jon Lester, they are now officially out of the running:
Now that’s a hell of a quote. While the Giants are out, it’s unclear where the other teams stand right now. Cubs? Red Sox? Dodgers? We should find out soon enough. Please, Jon.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that there is a “one million percent” chance Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman will opt out once the season ends.
Just going by the math this makes perfect sense, of course.
Chapman signed a five-year, $86 million deal with the Yankees before the 2017 season. Pursuant to the terms of the deal he’ll make $15 million a year in 2020 and 2021 (he was given an $11 million signing bonus that was finished being paid out last year). This past season the qualifying offer was $17.9 million. Craig Kimbrel of the Cubs just signed a deal that will pay him $16 million in 2020, 2021, and 2022 (he’s making a prorated $16 million this year). Other top closer salaries at the moment include Kenley Jansen ($19,333,334); and Wade Davis ($18 million).
It’s fair to say that Chapman fits into that group and, I think it’s safe to say, more teams would take him than those guys if they were all freely available. As such, Chapman opting out to get more money makes all kinds of sense. Heck, opting out, getting slapped with a qualifying offer, accepting it and then hitting the market unencumbered after the 2020 season would stand him in better financial stead than if he didn’t opt-out in the first place.
The question is whether the Yankees will let it get that far or whether they’ll approach him to renegotiate the final couple of years on the deal or to add some years onto the back of it. If they’re smart they will.