Game 7 odds: Royals are slight favorites over Giants

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Based on the betting odds the Royals are seen as a small favorite against the Giants in Game 7 tonight.

Exact lines vary depending on the source, but in general the Royals are around -140 favorites. Which means to win $100 on the Royals you’d need to bet $140 and the break-even win rate for such a bet would be 58 percent.

By comparison, the same Tim Hudson vs. Jeremy Guthrie matchup in Game 3 of the series on October 24 had the Giants as -125 favorites. That game was played in San Francisco, which is obviously one key difference.

My analysis of this series, and the playoffs in general, has basically been that everything is one big coin clip, so I’m of no real use here. I trust Hudson slightly more than I trust Guthrie, but being in Kansas City is a pretty big factor. What say you, HBT’ers?

Padres will try to lock up Fernando Tatís Jr. to a long term deal

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The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres will try to get Fernando Tatís Jr. locked up in a long-term deal before the start of the 2020 season.

It’d be a wise move from the team’s perspective, of course. Tatís showed in 2019 that he’s the future of the franchise, hitting .317/.379/.590 with 22 homers and 16 stolen bases through 84 games while playing spectacular defense at short. He was a serious contender for the Rookie of the Year Award before going down to injury and still finished third despite playing just a tad over half a season.

That talent and promise means that, in all likelihood, Tatís stands to make massive money in arbitration and free agency once he gets there. If he gets there, that is. Because as we’ve seen so often in recent years, teams have been aggressive in their efforts to lock up young stars like Tatís, buying out their arbitration and at least a couple of their free agency years. These deals tend to be team-friendly, with multiple team options aimed at getting maximal value out of such players before they hit the open market. Of course, the players get much more up front money than they would in the three seasons in which teams can and do set their salaries unilaterally, usually at less than $1 million per year. It’s a standard now vs. later tradeoff, even if the value of the “now” is far less than the value of “later” and even if it pays these guys far less than they’re worth overall.

But that’s the system. And it’s one which will force Tatís to make a tough choice: either take a deal at a time when the team has most of the leverage or else turn down millions in hand now in order take a shot at many more millions later. In his case, he’ll have a rookie season with multiple injuries to think about too. Does that portend future injury issues? Could he, like some players who have been in his shoes before, end up damaged goods by the time he expected to get paid?

We’ll see how both he and the Padres calculate all of that between now and February, it seems.