David Ortiz isn’t clutch, he’s just good

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Red Sox manager John Farrell says DH David Ortiz has a “knack for the moment”, as Sean McAdam reports in a column for CSN New England. Ortiz hit a go-ahead solo home run in the 10th inning after Koji Uehara blew his first save of the season in Sunday afternoon’s series finale against the Athletics.

The concept of Ortiz as clutch isn’t a new one. He’s a three-time World Series champion and is coming off of a post-season in which he posted a 1.206 OPS with five home runs and 13 RBI in 16 games. He had a similarly otherworldly post-season run in 2004 as well.

But if you dig into the numbers, one finds that Ortiz is just as good in “clutch” moments as he is overall:

  • Career: .926 OPS
  • Post-season: .962
  • 2 outs, RISP: .950
  • “Late & Close”: .871
  • High leverage: .936

He is very slightly better in “clutch” situations but the difference isn’t so large as to be explained by factors unrelated to Ortiz, including simple statistical variance.

A career .926 OPS is really, really good. He’s one of 28 players since 1901 to post a .925 OPS or better in at least 8,000 career plate appearances, according to Baseball Reference. Ortiz may not be clutch, but he is quite a productive hitter. We don’t need to exaggerate his prowess when citing his everyday performance does the job.

Royals sign Drew Storen to minor league deal

Drew Storen
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The Royals are in agreement with right-handed reliever Drew Storen on a minor league deal, the team announced Friday. Per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the deal is worth $1.25 million if the veteran righty breaks camp with the club this spring. Additional, albeit unspecified incentives will be included in the contract as well.

Storen, 31, is coming off of a protracted absence from any MLB duties. After inking a one-year deal with the Reds in 2017, he sustained a right elbow sprain toward the end of the year and underwent Tommy John surgery that October. He was effectively decommissioned for the club’s entire 2018 run and generated little interest around the league this winter, perhaps due in part to the uninspired 4.45 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.9 SO/9, and career-low -0.2 fWAR he posted across 54 2/3 innings during his last healthy season.

While it’s not immediately clear what kind of performance the Royals can expect from Storen in spring training, they’re not exactly in a position to be choosy. Their bullpen ranked dead last among all MLB teams with a collective 5.04 ERA, 4.85 FIP, and -2.2 fWAR last year, and still appears to be in a state of flux as they approach Opening Day. Skipper Ned Yost told reporters Wednesday that he intends to eschew the traditional closer appointment in 2019 and will instead utilize a combination of right-handers Wily Peralta and Brad Boxberger, lefty Tim Hill, and various others as he tackles high-leverage situations in the future.