When will the Brewers dump homer-prone Marco Estrada for top prospect Jimmy Nelson?

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Marco Estrada has served up an MLB-high 23 homers in 14 starts for the Brewers this season, putting him on pace to break the all-time record of 50 homers allowed by Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven.

And yet manager Ron Roenicke gave him a vote of confidence yesterday, telling Adam McCalvy of MLB.com that he hasn’t talked to general manager Doug Melvin about replacing Estrada in the rotation despite the presence of top prospect Jimmy Nelson at Triple-A.

Nelson has been dominant in the minors, posting a 1.51 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 78 innings, but Roenicke noted that Estrada’s next turn in the rotation comes up at Coors Field against the Rockies and that’s not necessarily a good spot to insert a young pitcher just promoted from Triple-A.

Still, between Estrada’s long-ball struggles and Nelson’s mid-90s-throwing upside the first-place Brewers appear very close to making a rotation switch.