Players busted for PEDs don’t show any notable uptick in performance

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A week after ESPN’s Buster Olney decided that Melky Cabrera’s excellent-so-far 2014 season justifies people assuming he’s back on PEDs, ESPN’s Dan Szymborski dives into the numbers and shows that such a decision is not based on any evidence at all:

Despite the rhetoric surrounding PEDs, players caught for steroid/testosterone use do not show a pattern of overperforming their projections in the years leading up to the drug suspension or a pattern of underperforming their projections in the years after a drug suspension.

All of this is based on Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system, which shows that Cabrera is doing about what you’d expect him to do this year. And that, as a group, guys busted for PEDs don’t really deviate too much from their expected performance one way or another before, during or after they are caught for PEDs.

Obviously there are a lot of caveats in play here. Small sample sizes, imperfect data about when guys start and stop taking PEDs and, of course, the flaws any projection system, even one as generally reliable as ZiPS, brings to the table.

But if you’re making a case for something — and Olney and others who are questioning the legitimacy of Melky’s performance this season are clearly making a case for something — it’s incumbent upon you to present some evidence. Szymborski’s analysis doesn’t necessarily prove anything about the efficacy or lack thereof of PEDs. But it has far more evidence on its side than anything people are hurling at Cabrera lately.

Marlins unveil what they’re putting in the space where the home run sculpture used to be

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Not long after the new ownership group bought the Miami Marlins, face of the franchise Derek Jeter made it clear that he wanted the home runs sculpture beyond the outfield fence gone. In October they announced that it would, in fact, be moving out to a plaza or the parking lot or someplace you’re unlikely to ever see it because who goes to Marlins games?

Today we got a tease of what the Marlins are doing with the space the sculpture is vacating:

It was only a matter of time before that green wall went away. There are a lot of things I like about the overall aesthetic of Marlins Park, but almost all of them are because of their novelty. Jeff Loria was bad for a lot of reasons, but one of the few good things he did was eschew nostalgia and traditionalism with the ballpark. Nostalgia and traditionalism, unfortunately, is the straw that stirs baseball’s drink, so any “weird” colors or flourishes were gonna be beat out of that place as the years went on. It was inevitable.

As for the “three-tier social space,” here’s hoping that tickets for it are cheap or the Marlins start winning ballgames soon, because the Marlins can’t really fill their existing spectator spaces now.