Billy Hamilton is already dealing with pressure, as he is taking over as the Reds’ center fielder and lead-off man at the age of 23. Many expect him to become the fourth player since the turn of the millennium to steal 70-plus bases, joining Jacoby Ellsbury (2009), Jose Reyes (2007), and Scott Podsednik (2004). He was the pre-season National League Rookie of the Year pick for six of 36 Baseball Prospectus writers, garnering more support than players like Travis d’Arnaud and Javier Baez.
Joey Votto is among those with high expectations for the rookie. Votto joined Cincinnati’s 700 WLW Friday evening to talk some baseball. Via Lance McAlister, Votto said that if Hamilton learns how to draw walks, he could be an NL MVP candidate:
— Lance McAlister (@LanceMcAlister) March 22, 2014
PECOTA, from Baseball Prospectus, projects Hamilton to hit .244 with an on-base percentage right around .300 and 71 stolen bases in close to 90 attempts. Obviously, getting on base more means more opportunities to steal bases and score more runs. PECOTA also projects Hamilton to be roughly 15 runs above average defensively, making him about a full win better than an average player. Not quite MVP-caliber, but maybe some day down the road.