Here come the projections

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As rosters are finalized and spring training stands just around the corner we’ll start to see many projections. The first overall one I’ve seen with wins and losses is Clay Davenport’s. Go see his here.

They all look pretty reasonable to me, at least insofar as how each team finishes in its division. I’m not a numbers guy so I can’t pick nits or say things like “Only 85 wins?! Bah! I think they win 89!” Go read Clay’s methodology. It’s complicated.

And I’m glad people like Clay do these because it helps to put actual past performance and numbers and things on top of all of our offseason feelings and expectations. Aging curves and past performance being the best predictor of future performance are concepts that are easy (and frankly, fun) to forget when your team is having press conferences putting its jersey on its new free agent.

My favorite thing about projection season, though? How mainstream baseball writers will deride them as silly as they come out. They’ll drop barbs on Twitter and in their columns about how, since someone projected wins and losses for the league “there’s no reason to play the season now!” or some such. The disdain for projections and statistical analysis in general comes through pretty clearly in this stuff.

And then, come March, these same guys will run “predictions” columns. Based on far less data and far more unverifiable and unfalsifiable conventional wisdom and pure gut feeling. And rather than predict things like “generalized results over a sample of 2000+ games,” they’ll predict who out of 30 teams will win a seven-game series six months in the future. And claim their own expertise as the basis for taking them seriously.

Fun times.

John Gibbons will close out the year as Blue Jays skipper

John Gibbons
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Blue Jays manager John Gibbons is slated to remain with the club through the end of the 2018 season, general manager Ross Atkins told reporters on Friday. The news follows a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who cast some doubt on the veteran skipper’s future with the team several weeks ago when he said the Jays “seem destined to move on from John Gibbons.”

While it appears Gibbons’ job is safe for the next six weeks, that’s not saying much — especially as the club currently sits 30.5 games back of the division lead and will prepare to continue restructuring a sub-.500 roster come fall. As recently as last week, he hinted that he wasn’t feeling particularly eager to oversee a full rebuild. Per Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun:

Truthfully, a full breakdown, you know I have to admit I don’t know if I’m interested in that,” Gibbons said prior to Friday’s 7-0 blowout loss to the Tampa Rays. “But we’ll see. I’m still here. I’ve enjoyed every minute of it.

Over 11 cumulative seasons from 2004-2008 and 2013-2018, the 56-year-old manager has guided the team to a winning record just five times, most recently when they earned back-to-back playoff appearances in 2015 and 2016. He still has another year remaining on his contract, which was recently lengthened to include the 2018 and 2019 seasons and includes an option for 2020 as well.

Atkins also revealed that the club is prepared to reevaluate Gibbons’ role during the offseason, though it’s not yet clear whether they intend to keep him on for the next two years as originally planned, reassign him to another role within the organization, or terminate his agreement with the team altogether.