Reds discussing contract extension with Homer Bailey

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Reds general manager Walt Jocketty admitted earlier this month that it will be “difficult” to keep Homer Bailey, but he still hasn’t given up hope of the possibility.

Bailey, who is entering his final year of arbitration, asked for $11.6 million and was offered $8.7 million when arbitration figures were exchanged yesterday. While a panel of arbitrators could decide on his 2014 salary if the two sides can’t make progress before next month, Jocketty told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that he’s focused on getting a multi-year deal done.

“In Bailey’s case, we were working on a multi-year [deal],” Jocketty said. “The agent [Casey Close] has [Clayton] Kershaw and he has [Masahiro] Tanaka also, so he’s been tied up with that. We just didn’t anticipate getting it done, but we exchanged numbers in the event and we will continue to negotiate and hopefully get something done before the hearing date.

“I am optimistic,” Jocketty said. “I just think it depends on where they feel the market settles in on free-agent pitchers. Hopefully, we’re not too far with our estimate and with their estimate about the market going forward. What it will be based on is what market for a guy like Bailey will be in the future.”

Bailey turns 28 in May and owns a 3.58 ERA in 65 starts over the past two seasons, so he could be looking at a $100 million deal in free agency if he remains healthy and effective in 2014. The Reds will have to make a very generous offer for him to pass up on a chance to test the open market.

There is a “one million percent” chance Aroldis Champan will opt-out of his deal

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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that there is a “one million percent” chance Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman will opt out once the season ends.

Just going by the math this makes perfect sense, of course.

Chapman signed a five-year, $86 million deal with the Yankees before the 2017 season. Pursuant to the terms of the deal he’ll make $15 million a year in 2020 and 2021 (he was given an $11 million signing bonus that was finished being paid out last year). This past season the qualifying offer was $17.9 million. Craig Kimbrel of the Cubs just signed a deal that will pay him $16 million in 2020, 2021, and 2022 (he’s making a prorated $16 million this year). Other top closer salaries at the moment include Kenley Jansen ($19,333,334); and Wade Davis ($18 million).

It’s fair to say that Chapman fits into that group and, I think it’s safe to say, more teams would take him than those guys if they were all freely available. As such, Chapman opting out to get more money makes all kinds of sense. Heck, opting out, getting slapped with a qualifying offer, accepting it and then hitting the market unencumbered after the 2020 season would stand him in better financial stead than if he didn’t opt-out in the first place.

The question is whether the Yankees will let it get that far or whether they’ll approach him to renegotiate the final couple of years on the deal or to add some years onto the back of it. If they’re smart they will.