Theo Epstein won’t say whether Dale Sveum will be back as Cubs manager

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Cubs president Theo Epstein was asked yesterday whether manager Dale Sveum will be back next season and declined to answer. So does that mean Sveum’s job is truly in jeopardy as he follows up last season’s 61-101 record by going 63-88 this year?

Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com delved a little deeper into Epstein’s quotes, including:

There’s no alarm bells to ring. But that’s a subject that gets addressed as a matter of process (after) the season. We’ve been very upfront about the fact that we’re not evaluating Dale on wins and losses. Our record is more of a reflection of the roster that we’ve put on the field as a baseball operations department and where we are in this building process. So I don’t hold Dale accountable for the record.

Of course, not being held accountable for the record doesn’t mean he’s not being held accountable for anything, and if the Cubs feel Sveum has struggled with, for instance, developing the young building blocks on the roster that could be a reason to fire him as well.

Mooney notes that Sveum is under contract for next season and the Cubs hold a team option for 2015. Epstein has generally offered plenty of praise for the job Sveum has done, but not replying with a simple “yes” when asked if a manager who’s under contract for 2014 will be back in 2014 is certainly open for interpretation.

Red Sox owner: “spending money helps”

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The other day Rob Manfred said, as he and other owners have said often in the past, that there is no correlation between payroll and winning. He said that defensively, in response to criticism of the slow free agent market of the past two offseasons.

As we have noted in the past, Manfred is not being honest about that. While, yes, in any given year there can be wild variation between payroll and win total — the Giants stunk last year, the A’s won 97 games — common sense dictates otherwise. What’s more, a recent study has shown that there is a pretty strong correlation between winning and payroll over time. Yes, you can fluke into a big season with a low payroll — Deadspin compared it to a cold snap occurring during a time of climate change — but if you want that “sustained success” teams claim they want, the best way to ensure it is to spend more money over time.

If you know anything about baseball labor history, though, you know well that the Commissioner and the owners will continue to mischaracterize the dynamics of the business as it suits them. Mostly because — present lefty sportswriters notwithstanding — very few people push back on their narratives. Fans tend to parrot ownership’s line on this stuff and, more often than not, baseball media acts as stenographer for ownership as opposed to critic. That gives owners a far greater ability to shape the narrative about all of this than most institutions.

Which makes this all the more awkward. From David Schoenfield of ESPN:

In apparent contradiction to his own commissioner, Boston Red Sox owner John Henry said Monday that, while there is not a perfect correlation between a bigger payroll and winning, “spending more money helps.”

Which is right. The correlation is not perfect — teams can spend a lot of money on a bad team if given the chance and a low payroll team like the Rays can bullpen their way to 90 wins — but you’re way more likely to win year-in, year-out if you’re spending than if you go cheap all the time and hope for a miracle season.

Which is not to say that Henry is some labor activist owner. He and his fellow front office officials have a long history of backing the league office on just about everything that matters and will no doubt do so with labor matters in the runup to the next CBA negotiation. The owners tend not to have a solidarity problem.

But Henry does seem to draw the line at peddling baloney, which is a shockingly necessary thing when the league and the union’s relationship turns acrimonious.