Over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. Proof. Everyone has proof. Lots of proof. Everyone has proof.

A whole lot of proof. You understand where I am coming from?

If not…lemme just say we have proof. ]]>

I can’t get that 3:48 back Brad. And it’s on YOU! ]]>

Not that most of us give a shit about your opinion, mind you…

]]>I, on the other hand, have NOT been a supporter of his. In fact, my refrain for a Rasmus At Bat is: “Get it over with, Colby. Strike out quick so the real MLB players can get the job done” and a minor theme of “Just swing wildly, pea-brain. Its what you do best”. I’m employing a technique known as “The Reverse Jedi Mind Trick”. He clearly thrives on criticism. I imagine this is precisely how his father coached him.

Somehow, this competing chi-energy (or “qi energy” if you’re into the Asian) has propelled Young Colby this season. I happen to think he needs this kind of conflicting “breath”* energy to get the most out of his at bats. Without us stirring the life energies just so he’d have faded into mediocrity by now.

*(The literal translation of “qi” is ‘breath’, unless wikipedia has totally misinformed me. Given how much breath ‘burg and I waste on Colby, this is quite the happy coincidence)

]]>Some of the more interesting articles:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculator/

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/eating-crow-xbabip-and-the-shift/

Using that conversion, Rasmus’ BABIP should only be about .302, assuming average BABIP skills. Rasmus has historically had above average IFFB rates, which is true again this year, which would be about a 3% ding against his expected BABIP compared to league average. ZIPS projects his ROS to be .313, Steamer has it at .298. For his career, he’s at .297 (including this year).

]]>I read somewhere that LD% + .120 will give you a very rough approximation of a hitter’s “true” BABIP (speed obviously plays a role too). According to that measure, we can expect Rasmus’s BABIP to regress to about .335 before we take his speed into account. His current BABIP of .359 isn’t a wild fluctuation from this very rough estimate, so he’s not necessarily due for a sharp regression.

]]>Hitter BABIP doesn’t vary as much, as hitters regress towards their own mean. Compare Adam Dunn to Austin Jackson, for example. It’s quite possible Rasmus has improved and is making better contact.

]]>2009: .282

2010: .354

2011: .267

2012: .259

2013: .359

Perception of Rasmus by year:

2009: Young with promise

2010: Emerging star

2011: disaster

2012: disaster

2013: Very good CF

His underlying numbers are actually worse this year, with a career high 30.2% K rate.

Beware the BABIP-driven breakout performance.

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