Your midseason awards winners, according to WAR

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Here’s how WAR, both the Baseball-reference and Fangraphs versions, rates the top players as of the midway point of the season.

AL MVP (Baseball-Reference)

1. Manny Machado – 4.9
2. Miguel Cabrera – 4.9
3. Chris Sale – 4.4
4. Dustin Pedroia – 4.3
5. Chris Davis – 4.2

AL MVP (Fangraphs)

1. Miguel Cabrera – 5.4
2. Mike Trout – 4.7
3. Chris Davis – 4.6
4. Evan Longoria – 4.5
5. Manny Machado – 4.2

This is Cabrera’s award to lose, even though Davis has put quite the charge on. Both have 202 OPS+s at the moment, though Cabrera’s high OBP makes his line more valuable. B-ref has Machado matching Cabrera in WAR thanks to a huge defensive bonus; it rates him as the AL’s best defender by almost a full win over Dustin Pedroia. No one would deny that Machado is an excellent third baseman, but that’s probably excessive. Also, even though Machado is on a ridiculous doubles pace, he’s no Trout offensively. He’s probably been the AL’s fourth or fifth best player, which is still a massive accomplishment for a 20-year-old.

NL MVP (Baseball-Reference)

1. Carlos Gomez – 5.0
2. Clayton Kershaw – 4.8
3. Cliff Lee – 4.6
4. David Wright – 4.5
5. Matt Harvey – 4.5

NL MVP (Fangraphs)

1. Carlos Gomez – 4.5
2. Adam Wainwright – 4.3
3. David Wright – 4.2
3. Matt Harvey – 4.2
5. Matt Carpenter – 4.1

Both systems are in agreement that Gomez has been the NL’s best player so far. Still, I’m skeptical that he’d even crack the top 10 if the BBWAA held a vote. Obviously, much of his value is tied up in defense; B-ref says only Andrelton Simmons has been worth more with the glove in the NL. Plus, the Brewers have struggled all year. … If the vote were held today, I’m guessing we’d see Yadier Molina come in first and Paul Goldschmidt second. B-ref has Goldschmidt as the NL’s third best position player, while Fangraphs puts him 11th. Molina ranks 12th by B-ref and ninth by Fangraphs.

AL Cy Young (Baseball-reference)

1. Chris Sale – 4.4
2. Clay Buchholz – 4.0
3. Hisashi Iwakuma – 3.7

AL Cy Young (Fangraphs)

1. Derek Holland – 3.4
2. Max Scherzer – 3.4
3. Felix Hernandez – 3.3

Buchholz was the leader for Cy Young honors when he went down. Now it’s probably Scherzer, even though his 3.10 ERA doesn’t crack the top 10 in the league. The 12-0 record would help a bunch, as would the terrific strikeout rate. I figured Yu Darvish would fare better here than he does, but the home runs are hurting him. He’s fifth according to B-ref and sixth according to Fangraphs.

NL Cy Young (Baseball-reference)

1. Cliff Lee – 4.6
2. Matt Harvey – 4.5
3. Adam Wainwright – 4.4
4. Clayton Kershaw – 4.4

NL Cy Young (Fangraphs)

1. Adam Wainwright – 4.2
2. Matt Harvey – 4.2
3. Cliff Lee – 3.5

I’m guessing Wainwright would win the award if the season ended today, and both versions of WAR think he’s just as deserving as Harvey, even though Harvey has the edge in ERA (2.00 to 2.22) and strikeouts (132 to 114). … You may have noticed Kershaw comes in second on B-ref’s MVP list, but just tied for third here. That’s because I’m only using their pitching WAR for Cy Young.

AL Rookie of the Year (Baseball-reference)

1. Jose Iglesias – 2.3
2. David Lough – 1.7
3. Nick Franklin – 1.5

AL Rookie of the Year (Fangraphs)

1. Jose Iglesias – 1.4
2. David Lough – 1.2
3. Dan Straily – 1.1

B-ref rates Iglesias as an above average defender, while Fangraphs says below average. I’m firmly on B-ref’s side here. That said, it’s only a matter of time before he stops hitting and gets overtaken in the race.

NL Rookie of the Year (Baseball-reference)

1. Hyun-Jin Ryu – 2.5
2. Julio Teheran – 2.4
3. Shelby Miller – 2.3
3. Nolan Arenado – 2.3

NL Rookie of the Year (Fangraphs)

1. Shelby Miller – 2.2
2. Marcell Ozuna – 2.1
3. Evan Gattis – 1.8

Yasiel Puig is making a glorious charge here. B-ref had him at 2.1 and Fangraphs has him at 1.8 after a measly 26 games. Fangraphs, for what it’s worth, rates him as a bit of a liability both defensively and on the basepaths to date, no doubt because of his overaggressiveness.

Sox, Astros look to take a lead, Brewers look to take command in tonight’s LCS action

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The Red Sox and Astros felt each other out for Games 1 and 2 and now things shift to Houston for Game 3. Each team faces a challenge of sorts here, with the Astros facing a right-handed starter for the first time in the series — they have hit better against lefties on the season — and the Red Sox entering the game with some questions about their bullpen, particularly closer Craig Kimbrel. Also of note: each team has a big bit — Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez — which has been cold thus far. Altuve has gone 1-for-8 in the first two games and Martinez is 0-for-7. Altuve is nursing a sore right knee and may be the DH this afternoon. Martinez, of course, will DH for Boston. It’ll be interesting to see if either one of ’em gets of the schneid.

In Los Angeles, the Brewers would take a commanding 3-1 lead with a victory tonight. As noted below, things are set up nicely for them from a pitching perspective, having basically everyone available in what will be, essentially, a bullpen game. The Dodgers have a traditional starter on the mound in Rich Hill, but since Walker Buehler went seven innings and Dave Roberts did not have to use his top relief arms, he’ll likely be calling down to the pen earlier than usual as well. Indeed, expect him to pull out all the stops he can to avoid falling into a 1-3 hole in this best-of-seven series.

Your viewing guide:

ALCS Game 3

Red Sox vs. Astros
Ballpark: Minute Maid Park
Time: 5:09 PM Eastern
TV: TBS
Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Dallas Keuchel
Breakdown:

Eovaldi is coming off seven innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts and no walks in his Game 3 start against the Yankees in the ALDS. Earlier this year he faced the Astros when he was still with the Rays — as you probably heard by now, that didn’t go too well — but he’s been solid as a rock for Boston since the beginning of September, not allowing more than two runs in any start and blanking the opposition three times. Keuchel is working on seven days of rest since giving up two runs over five innings in his Game 3 of the ALDS. Sometimes people say guys with sinking stuff like his do worse with more rest but I feel like every time I’ve heard that for the past decade, a guy like him has either been just fine on extra rest or has gotten shelled on the allegedly good short rest they get. It’s mostly noise. So much small sample stuff this time of year is noise. Including the fact that Keuchel is 0-1 with a 9.15 ERA over four appearances against the Sox in his career. People say that stuff to have something to say. Like I just did.

NLCS Game 4

Brewers vs. Dodgers
Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
Time: 9:09 PM Eastern
TV: FS1
Pitchers: Gio Gonzalez vs. Rich Hill
Breakdown:

Gio Gonzalez will start the game, but as was the case in Game 1 when Gonzalez pitched just two innings, look for him to be an opener here once again. In Game 1 Craig Counsell used seven pitchers, with Brandon Woodruff going two innings and Josh Hader going three. Hader pitched yesterday but it was only two-thirds of an inning in which he only threw eight pitches, so expect to see him once again. The Dodgers, blanked yesterday, will need to show that they can do something against the Brewers’ best or this thing isn’t going back to Milwaukee for a Game 6 or 7. As for their starter, Rich Hill hasn’t pitched in eight days, last going four and a third against the Braves in the NLDS, allowing two runs. He’ll be pitching to Austin Barnes after Yasmani Grandal’s boo-inspiring performance in the postseason thus far sends him to the pine.