Still too early to worry about faltering aces

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The ERA leaderboard, organized greatest to least, is a bit of a shocker. At the top you’ll find both of the defending Cy Young award winners (David Price and R.A. Dickey), as well as Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Stephen Strasburg, among others. You’ll hear this a lot but it bears repeating: it’s still very early, so you can’t really trust the stats yet.

I went back to starters’ first  three starts in 2012 and found some surprising ERA outliers as well, then I researched how they fared over the rest of the season. A small selection of elite hurlers:

(ERA-3 = ERA through three starts; ERA-RoS = rest-of-season ERA)

Player ERA-3 ERA-RoS
Adam Wainwright 9.88 3.50
Max Scherzer 7.98 3.38
Josh Johnson 5.94 3.61
R.A. Dickey 5.71 2.50
CC Sabathia 5.59 3.14
Zack Greinke 5.09 3.33
David Price 4.20 2.43

This exercise can be repeated for any group of players. Just to name a few on the hitting side: Matt Holliday had a .602 OPS after the first two weeks last year, but bounced back and posted a .908 OPS the rest of the way. Jay Bruce went from .679 in the first two weeks to .859 the rest of the way. Giancarlo Stanton went from .642 in the first two weeks to 1.010 through the end of the season.

Martin Prado exits game with left hamstring injury

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Marlins third baseman Martin Prado was forced to make an early departure from Friday’s game after sustaining a left hamstring injury in the sixth inning. Prado sprinted down the first base line to beat out a grounder, but came up limping and had to be helped off of the field and down the steps of the dugout. His recovery timetable has yet to be determined, though he’s considered day-to-day for the time being.

Prior to the incident, Prado went 3-for-4 with two doubles against the Nationals’ Max Scherzer — his first game with multiple extra-base hits since July 2017. It was a rare lucky break for the infielder, who entered Friday’s game with a .169/.221/.180 batting line, one double and three RBI in 95 plate appearances in 2018. The injury appears to be an aggravation of the left hamstring strain he sustained in March, which forced the club to bench him for just over a month this spring.

Prado was replaced on the field by Brian Anderson, who shifted over from right field so the team could bring in pinch-hitter/corner outfielder J.B. Shuck. The Marlins currently trail the Nationals 7-5 in the top of the eighth inning.