Expert on baseball’s TV money: “I am certain that at some point in the very near future, that balloon will burst”

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Baseball has been riding a wave of big money based on big TV deals, both local and national. The deals are paid for by cable TV customers whose bills keep going up and up. There are an increasing number of voices who believe we have a bubble on our hands and that bubble is bound to burst.  From Pete Kotz’s report in City Pages last week:

Today, the average TV bill rests at $86 per month, about half of which pays for sports programming. That’s more than double a decade ago. So it’s no coincidence that the cable and satellite industries have been jettisoning customers for nine years straight.

The new round of deals promises to hasten these unpleasant trends. “I can’t tell you what will be the trigger,” says Matthew Polka, president of the American Cable Association. “But I am certain that at some point in the very near future, that balloon will burst.”

And when it does, baseball will take the brunt of the explosion.

One has to be at least tad skeptical of this particular report given that it begins with what I feel is a fundamental misunderstanding of baseball’s relationship to television (i.e. national TV ratings are close to meaningless as a gauge for the health of televised baseball), but the nut of the article — cable bills can’t possibly keep going up at the rate they are to pay for all of these rights deals — seems pretty intuitive.

Indeed, as recent (and not-so-recent) history has shown us, no market spirals forever upward. There will be ruts at best, crashes at worst, and the balloons always pop eventually.

Baseball had best have a contingency plan in the event it happens to it as well.

Twins reach historic home run total during 11-4 rout of White Sox

Max Kepler
AP Images
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The Twins trampled the White Sox on Friday night, cruising to a cool 11-4 lead over their division rivals and collecting their sixth double-digit win of 2019. Even more impressive, they picked up their 99th, 100th, and 101st home runs, a feat that’s rarely been matched in a team’s first 50 games of any given season.

The first homer of the night was delivered by Eddie Rosario in the third inning. Working against a single-run deficit, Rosario lifted an 0-1 fastball from the White Sox’ Reynaldo López, planting it firmly in the left field stands and evening the score, 4-4. Two batters later, Rosario’s solo home run got a sequel: a 398-footer from Miguel Sanó, this one postmarked for the upper deck in left.

In the fourth, now leading 5-4, the Twins saw a third and final homer from the bat of Max Kepler, whose center-field blast traveled a projected 397 feet to give the club a two-run advantage. Per MLB Stats, the Twins’ record — 101 homers in 50 games — stands second only to that of the 1999 Mariners, who managed to club 102 home runs before their 51st game of the season.

While the record has undoubtedly been a team effort, Rosario leads the pack with a team-best 15 homers so far this year, closely followed by C.J. Cron (13), Max Kepler (11), and Jonathan Schoop (10). Sanó, whose solo shot marked the team’s 100th home run of 2019, has just five, though there’s little doubt he’ll reach double digits before the end of the season.

According to MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, the Twins also made it to an even 300 runs scored in 2019, for a satisfying average of six runs per game and a new franchise record (previous high mark: 273 runs scored in 1992). With the win, they improved to 34-16 on the year and continue to hold a comfortable eight-game lead in the AL Central.