Sean Forman: WAR is “GDP for baseball”

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There was some big news in the baseball stats community recently, as Baseball Reference and FanGraphs agreed to a common replacement level in their Wins Above Replacement statistic. Though the two sites’ computation of the statistic still differs in other ways, creating some uniformity in replacement level should clear up some of the confusion around the stat among casual observers.

Sean Forman, the creator of Baseball Reference, responded to some general criticisms of WAR yesterday. Most notably, he referred to WAR as “GDP for baseball”. GDP, of course, stands for Gross Domestic Product, an estimate of the market value of a country’s goods and services. WAR often gets tossed aside because it’s complicated, requires a lot of steps to calculate correctly, and is a single number that covers broad subject matter, but Forman shows how those criticisms are not levied against GDP despite being very similar in nature. If you trust GDP, you should trust WAR.

(Obligatory picture of Mike Trout above, just because.)

Aaron Judge homers off of Max Scherzer, American League takes a 1-0 lead

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Despite the earlier rain, the All-Star Game got underway on time and following the usual pregame festivities Max Scherzer took the hill to face the American League.

Scherzer did great in the first inning, striking out Mookie Betts and Jose Altuve and then, following a walk to Mike Trout and giving up a single to J.D. Matinez, retired Jose Ramirez on a weak popup. Scherzer was cooing with gas: the reigning Cy Young winner had not thrown a pitch as fast as 98 m.p.h. all season, but he threw three of those during his scoreless first.

Chris Sale‘s work in the bottom half was more about nasty stuff than mere heat. Following a leadoff single allowed to Javier Baez he got Nolan Arenado to fly out to left, struck out Paul Goldschmidt on a nasty slider and then got Freddie Freeman out via a fly to left.

Aaron Judge led off the second. The same Aaron Judge someone wrote today could be trade bait if the Yankees felt so inclined. Which, um, OK, that was dumb anyway, but it looked even dumber when Judge muscled Scherzer’s second pitch — a letter-high fastball — out to left field with many, many feet to spare for a homer.

Scherzer got the rest of the A.L. side, but the damage had been done. The American League leads 1-0 after an inning and a half.