Sean Forman: WAR is “GDP for baseball”

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There was some big news in the baseball stats community recently, as Baseball Reference and FanGraphs agreed to a common replacement level in their Wins Above Replacement statistic. Though the two sites’ computation of the statistic still differs in other ways, creating some uniformity in replacement level should clear up some of the confusion around the stat among casual observers.

Sean Forman, the creator of Baseball Reference, responded to some general criticisms of WAR yesterday. Most notably, he referred to WAR as “GDP for baseball”. GDP, of course, stands for Gross Domestic Product, an estimate of the market value of a country’s goods and services. WAR often gets tossed aside because it’s complicated, requires a lot of steps to calculate correctly, and is a single number that covers broad subject matter, but Forman shows how those criticisms are not levied against GDP despite being very similar in nature. If you trust GDP, you should trust WAR.

(Obligatory picture of Mike Trout above, just because.)

Astros assistant GM Mike Elias reported to be next Orioles general manager

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Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Astros assistant GM Mike Elias will be the new general manager of the Orioles “barring a change of heart.”

Elias, 35, has been the Astros’ assistant general manager since August 2016. He had previously served as Houston’s scouting director and, before that, as a scout for the Cardinals. He was part of the team that came over from the Cardinals when Jeff Luhnow joined the Astros.

If he does take the O’s job his work will certainly be cut out for him. Baltimore was historically bad in 2018, finishing 47-115 thanks to a roster full of expensive, past-their-prime players and an underdeveloped farm system. He’ll have to hit the ground running too, as he’ll not join the team until nearly two months into the club’s offseason, having had no time to assess its needs and personnel. Oh, and the Winter Meetings begin in a little over three weeks.