Great Moments in Predictions: Morosi picks the Royals over the Tigers

39 Comments

Jon Paul Morosi, who has openly used this year’s season previews as fodder to troll people, last night threw out the biggest hate-bait possible: picking the Royals to win the AL Central.

His rationale: “The rotation is vastly improved, the bullpen is deep, and young stars Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are ready to flourish.” Then he drops a reference to a couple of surprise teams in the past few years and essentially says “why not the Royals?” His argument for the Tigers to fall to second: they have a closer-by-committee. As if Bruce Rondon’s presence on the roster would have pushed them into first place otherwise.

Look, you can either take predictions seriously or you can treat them as the meaningless but sometimes fun and time-killing guesswork that they are. We at HBT prefer the latter tack so we’re not exactly in a position to hurl scorn on someone who makes what most people feel are silly predictions. I mean, this isn’t serious, all-important business like the World Baseball Classic or anything.

But Morosi’s trolling tone aside, it feels like he takes them somewhat seriously. Anyone who makes a point to remind people of previously correct predictions as he does at the outset of the column (while conveniently forgetting some of his poor predictions) is clearly not doing it solely for the yuks. And if you take your predictions seriously, you’re sort of obligated to own them later if and when they fail to be borne out by events.

So let’s all bookmark this column, shall we? Because if the Royals somehow fail to beat out the Tigers, we’ll want to remind ourselves of why Morosi is spending so much time eating crow over how things turned out.  Because he will do that, right?

Buyers and Sellers at the Trade Deadline: American League West

Getty Images
2 Comments

With Manny Machado’s trade completed, the rest of baseball can now turn its attention to the non-blue chip players on the market.

Yesterday, in our look-ahead to the second half, we mentioned some of the top players likely to be made available. Today we look at each team to see who is buying, who is selling, what they’re seeking and what they have to offer. Note: almost every contender, always, needs relief help.

As a reminder, the non-waiver Trade Deadline is July 31. Players traded after that date but before August 31 need to pass through waivers unclaimed before they can be traded. All players traded before August 31 are eligible to be on their new team’s playoff roster should they make the postseason.

Next up, the American League West:

Astros
Status: Buyers, but nothin’ too fancy.
Wanted: They, like all contenders, could use a bullpen arm, but they’re not in dire straits in that regard or anything. They certainly won’t deal top prospects to get one. They have to like where they are right now, especially given that both the Mariners and the Athletics have outperformed their Pythagorean record, suggesting they’ve already thrown their hardest punch. Note: people said the Astros would stand pat last year too and all they did was go out and get Justin Freakin’ Verlander, so take this analysis with a Dead Sea’s worth of salt.

Mariners
Status: Buyers. Jerry Dipoto is always wheelin’ and dealin’.
Wanted: A starter would be key, as the M’s front four have pitched a lot of innings. They could also use some relief help even though Dipoto has overhauled the bullpen in the past year or so. Seems that, sometimes, overhauls don’t make things as good as new. Robinson Cano comes back in mid-August and that’s like getting a free bat at the deadline, but he’ll be ineligible for the playoffs and his return may create some positional musical chairs for the M’s, meaning that they probably shouldn’t say no to at least hearing teams out on offers of bats, should they come.

Athletics
Status: Buyers, surprisingly. I don’t even think they thought they’d be in the Wild Card hunt. Heck, the vast majority of preseason coverage of this team assumed that they’d be shopping Jed Lowrie and Jonathan Lucroy at this point right now. Heck, I figured they signed Lucroy for that express purpose.
Wanted: Probably pitching. Who doesn’t need pitching? The question is what the A’s will give up. See above point about not expecting to be in this position.

Angels
Status: Sellers, but reluctant ones. The Angels loaded for bear this year but injuries have just curb-stomped them. Even their biggest trade chit — Garrett Richards — is hurt.
For Sale: Some relievers mostly.  Blake ParkerCam Bedrosian and Justin Anderson come to mind. They’d buy if they could but their farm system is a mess. It’s just the worst of both worlds for a team that could’ve done so much better this year.

Rangers
Status: Sellers
For Sale: Cole Hamels is the most obvious candidate to be traded, but they’ll listen to offers on most of their players. Even Adrian Beltre has said he’d be willing to waive his no-trade rights for a contender.