Great Moments in Probabilities: Yankees $200 million payroll edition

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There’s a profile of Hal Steinbrenner in the New York Times, talking about his leadership of the Yankees and his quest to bring down the payroll and get under the Luxury Tax threshold. Fun quote:

“My firmly held belief is that you don’t have to have a $200 million payroll to be world champion … And the historical data that led me to that conclusion is rock solid.”

Fun analysis from commenter silhouetted by the sea over at Baseball Think Factory:

5 times the Yankees have had a $200 Million payroll-2005 and 2008-2011-and they are the only team to ever have one. They of course won 1 World Series. Thus, teams with a $200 Million payroll have a 1 in 5 chance of winning the World Series.

Which, as others note, is way better odds than all teams in history without $200 million payrolls. Ahem.

OK, in all seriousness, Hal is right. You don’t need mondo payrolls to win it all. But you do need good, healthy baseball players. And the concern for the Yankees at the moment is that they don’t have enough of those. Payrolls, then, are sort of a red herring.

Gio Gonzalez has a high ankle sprain, will be replaced on the NLCS roster

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It was understandable if you forgot about it given that it happened hours and hours before the end of the game, but Gio Gonzalez left in the second inning of Game 4 of the NLCS after coming down funny on his ankle while fielding a ball in play.

While Gonzalez attempted to stay in the game after that it was clear that he was not right, so the Brewers went to the bullpen. After the game, it was clear why he wasn’t right: Brewers manager Craig Counsell said that Gonzalez had a high ankle sprain and that it was likely he would be replaced on the roster with another pitcher.

This may actually benefit Milwaukee in the very short term given that Milwaukee used six relievers last night, so there will be a fresh arm on staff for Game 5 tonight. It does mean, however, that Gonzalez’ season is over, as a player replaced due to injury in one playoff series is required to sit out the next one. If the Brewers make it to the World Series, Gonzalez will not be available no matter how he is health, wise.

Counsell did not say which pitcher will replace Gonzalez on the roster. We’ll find out for sure later today. Among the possibilities are Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Jordan Lyles and Matt Albers.