Great Moments in Probabilities: Yankees $200 million payroll edition

28 Comments

There’s a profile of Hal Steinbrenner in the New York Times, talking about his leadership of the Yankees and his quest to bring down the payroll and get under the Luxury Tax threshold. Fun quote:

“My firmly held belief is that you don’t have to have a $200 million payroll to be world champion … And the historical data that led me to that conclusion is rock solid.”

Fun analysis from commenter silhouetted by the sea over at Baseball Think Factory:

5 times the Yankees have had a $200 Million payroll-2005 and 2008-2011-and they are the only team to ever have one. They of course won 1 World Series. Thus, teams with a $200 Million payroll have a 1 in 5 chance of winning the World Series.

Which, as others note, is way better odds than all teams in history without $200 million payrolls. Ahem.

OK, in all seriousness, Hal is right. You don’t need mondo payrolls to win it all. But you do need good, healthy baseball players. And the concern for the Yankees at the moment is that they don’t have enough of those. Payrolls, then, are sort of a red herring.

José Abreu undergoes lower abdominal surgery, expected out two weeks

Jon Durr/Getty Images
Leave a comment

White Sox first baseman José Abreu underwent lower abdominal surgery on Tuesday, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. It was an outpatient procedure that is expected to keep him away from baseball activity for two weeks.

Abreu, 31, was held out of Tuesday’s lineup, his first day off in more than two months. This season, Abreu has hit a productive .272/.331/.491 with 22 home runs and 78 RBI in 526 plate appearances.

The White Sox will likely play Matt Davidson at first base and put Daniel Palka at DH while Abreu is out.