Men predict free agent destinations, God says “hah!”

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Today Buster Olney speculates about where Josh Hamilton may wind up.  He runs through any number of teams, notes that there are either fit or payroll problems, and ultimately lands on the Tigers, noting that (a) they have a spot in left field for Hamilton: and (b) they have recently been something of a free agent wild card, going big money and multiple years on Prince Fielder, who many thought would also pose a long-term/durability risk like Hamilton does.

It’s as fair a guess as any other team, I reckon. But — and I am in no way picking on Olney here when I say this, because it’s fun to guess — handicapping free agent destinations seems like more of a sucker’s game now than it ever has been.

I’m struggling to think of the last top shelf free agent who landed where most people suspected he’d go as the season came to an end. Pujols was supposed to go to Miami, wasn’t he? Cliff Lee was supposed to land in New York.  CC Sabathia preferred to stay on the west coast.  And that all worked out … differently.

I think such predictions are going to be even harder going forward than they have been. Mostly because of the new world of TV money we’ve talked about so often over the past year. The teams we think have money and the teams we think are broke are changing pretty rapidly. The risks associated with long-term, nine-figure deals aren’t as great as they were even a few years ago.  There are probably more players for top free agents now than there ever have been.

Which is not to say that Josh Hamilton will be the subject of a bidding war.  Indeed, he does have issues and even if more teams can take risks on a guy like him, it doesn’t mean they will. If anything, teams are wiser about such things now than they ever have been.

Ultimately, though, it only takes one team to give Josh Hamilton or someone like him a big deal. And, if recent history has shown anything, guessing which team that will be beforehand is damn nigh impossible.

Padres to place Franchy Cordero on DL, activate Hunter Renfroe

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Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres will place outfielder Franchy Cordero on the 10-day disabled list and activate outfielder Hunter Renfroe from the DL on Monday.

Cordero, 23, has been slumping, batting .140 with four extra-base hits in 47 plate appearances dating back to May 11. The Padres noticed that the forearm issue has been affecting his swing in recent games. Manager Andy Green said, “It was something where he could swing a certain way to manage it. But swinging that way was not him.”

Renfroe, 26, has been out since mid-April due to inflammation in his right elbow. He hit .200/.281/.440 in 57 PA prior to landing on the disabled list. Renfroe played in 10 rehab games with Triple-A El Paso.