So much for the Cubs trading Matt Garza: He’s out until after the deadline

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Trade rumors continued to swirl around Matt Garza despite the Cubs right-hander leaving his July 21 start with a triceps injury, but now he can be crossed off the list of pitchers potentially on the move before July 31.

Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago reports that an MRI exam showed fluid in Garza’s triceps, which means he’ll be shut down until after Tuesday’s deadline has passed.

Garza technically could still be traded even while hurting, but obviously it would be tough for the Cubs to get anything close to full value for a pitcher with a big health question mark. And because they have him under team control for 2013 via arbitration they could start shopping him again this offseason.

Another possibility is dealing Garza during August, but because numerous contenders would surely place waiver claims on him the Cubs would be limited to negotiating with whichever team put in a claim with the highest priority. That would kill their leverage then, just as the triceps injury has killed their leverage now.

Several reports have suggested that the Dodgers preferred Garza to rotation-mate Ryan Dempster, so while the injury is bad news for the Cubs it could actually make it easier to get a strong return for Dempster.

There is a “one million percent” chance Aroldis Champan will opt-out of his deal

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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that there is a “one million percent” chance Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman will opt out once the season ends.

Just going by the math this makes perfect sense, of course.

Chapman signed a five-year, $86 million deal with the Yankees before the 2017 season. Pursuant to the terms of the deal he’ll make $15 million a year in 2020 and 2021 (he was given an $11 million signing bonus that was finished being paid out last year). This past season the qualifying offer was $17.9 million. Craig Kimbrel of the Cubs just signed a deal that will pay him $16 million in 2020, 2021, and 2022 (he’s making a prorated $16 million this year). Other top closer salaries at the moment include Kenley Jansen ($19,333,334); and Wade Davis ($18 million).

It’s fair to say that Chapman fits into that group and, I think it’s safe to say, more teams would take him than those guys if they were all freely available. As such, Chapman opting out to get more money makes all kinds of sense. Heck, opting out, getting slapped with a qualifying offer, accepting it and then hitting the market unencumbered after the 2020 season would stand him in better financial stead than if he didn’t opt-out in the first place.

The question is whether the Yankees will let it get that far or whether they’ll approach him to renegotiate the final couple of years on the deal or to add some years onto the back of it. If they’re smart they will.