The Pirates knew they were taking a risk when they made Stanford right-hander Mark Appel the eighth overall pick in the 2012 draft. Expected to go first overall, Appel reportedly turned down a $6 million bonus from the Astros before the draft, causing Houston to choose Carlos Correa instead.
The fall to No. 8 guaranteed that Appel would no longer be a candidate for a $6 million bonus. MLB’s proposed slot price for No. 8 is $2.9 million, compared to $7.2 million for No. 1 overall. Now that Appel is the Pirates’ only top-10 pick unsigned, the team knows exactly what it can offer him without losing a 2013 first-rounder: $3.84 million. That reportedly isn’t good enough for Appel.
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Appel would seem to have a lot more to lose than to gain by going back to school for his senior season. If he duplicates his 2012 performance, he could be a top-three pick next year and get more than $3.8 million. However, there’s a significant risk of injury and it’s also possible he just won’t perform quite as well. Plus, as a college senior, he’ll have less leverage in negotiations next year no matter where he’s drafted.
Still, it looks like that’s where we’re headed. It’s not like the Pirates can simply up their proposal against Friday’s deadline; they’re offering him every dollar they can without losing a first-round pick. And while one could argue it might be worth losing the pick to land someone with Appel’s talent — particularly given that the Pirates probably won’t be drafting it the top 10 again next year — it’s clear they’re not willing to budge on that possibility.