Mark Trumbo is your Home Run Derby favorite

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With Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium serving as the battleground, Monday’s Home Run Derby figured to yield fewer souveniers than usual. Kauffman is one of the game’s tough home run parks. Using Stats Inc. park factors, only Minnesota’s Target Field played tougher on home runs for AL parks  from 2009-11 and that only slightly. It’s played closer to neutral this year, but Yankee Stadium it’s not.

That’s especially true for left-handed hitters. With 100 being average, Kauffman had a home run park factor of 64 from 2009-11, the lowest of any AL stadium. It was a more reasonable 89 for right-handed hitters. Yankee Stadium, in comparison, was at 143 for lefties and 117 for righties.

So, the righties should have the advantage tonight. Kauffman is a symmetrical park, but the ball just tends to travel better to left field.

And that’s one big reason I expect the Angels’ Mark Trumbo to be the champ. Of the participants, he’s hit the longest homers this year.

Data taken from ESPN Stats & Info:

R – Trumbo: 22 HR – 419.5 ft
L – Prince Fielder: 15 HR – 411.7 ft
L – Robinson Cano: 20 HR – 406.8 ft
R – Jose Bautista: 27 HR – 403.3 ft

L – Carlos Gonzalez: 17 HR – 412.4 ft
S – Carlos Beltran: 20 HR – 408.9 ft
R – Matt Kemp: 12 HR, 400.2 ft
R – Andrew McCutchen: 18 HR – 398.9 ft

Interestingly, Beltran says he still hasn’t decided whether he’ll swing lefty or righty tonight.

Apart from Trumbo, I think Cano, the defending champ, and Beltran are the favorites. Bautista and Kemp were both eliminated in the first round last year, and Kemp still has some rust to shake anyway. Fielder has the muscle to start off strong, but as much effort as he puts into his swing, I think he’d fade if he ever made it to the finals.

Bruce Bochy wins 2,000th game as manager

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The Giants handily defeated the Red Sox on Wednesday night, 11-3. The win marked No. 2,000 of manager Bruce Bochy’s storied career, bolstering an already airtight case for the Hall of Fame.

Bochy, 64, is retiring at the end of the season. The skipper began his managerial career in 1995 with the Padres. He led them to the World Series in 1998, but they were swept out of the Fall Classic by the Yankees. Bochy would manage the Padres through 2006, amassing a 951-975 record (.494).

Bochy went to the Giants in 2007, which turned out to be a terrific decision. Bochy’s Giants won the World Series in 2010, ’12, and ’14, beating the Rangers (4-1), Tigers (4-0), and Royals (4-3), respectively. Including Wednesday’s win, Bochy has a 1,049-1,047 (.500) record with the Giants.

There have been only 11 managers in baseball history to win at least 2,000 games as a manager. Connie Mack leads overwhelmingly at 3,731, followed by John McGraw (2,763) and Tony La Russa (2,728). Also in the 2,000-win club are Bobby Cox (2,504), Joe Torre (2,326), Sparky Anderson (2,194), Bucky Harris (2,158), Joe McCarthy (2,125), Walter Alston (2,040), Leo Durocher (2,008), and Bochy.

Next stop, Cooperstown.