Andre Ethier’s frightening most similar list

22 Comments

According to Baseball-Reference similarity scores, here are the 10 most comparable players to Andre Ethier through age 29:

1. Dmitri Young
2. Richie Zisk
3. Rondell White
4. Jacque Jones
5. Aubrey Huff
6. Bobby Higginson
7. Corey Hart
8. Ellis Valentine
9. Jim Edmonds
10. Tony Oliva

Talk about a scary list. I’m not saying it’s worth putting much weight into similarity scores like this, but… yikes. Of course, the Dodgers just gave Ethier a five-year, $85 million contract with what apparently is a pretty easy vesting option for 2018. The five guaranteed years will cover Ethier’s age 31-35 seasons.

For the record, of the eight retired players here, just one hit 100 homers after age 31. That was Edmonds, a late bloomer who hit 230. Huff may get there — he has 86 the last five years — but he’s certainly not someone Dodgers fans want to see Ethier compared to.

The four most similar players to Ethier averaged a total of 53 homers and 204 RBI in their careers from age 31 onwards. The injury-prone White was the most successful of the bunch, and he averaged 13 homers and 53 RBI per season in his final five years.

Of course, I think Ethier will do better than that. But none of these other guys figured to fall off the map like they did, either. I do expect that come 2017, the Dodgers are going to be dreading Ethier’s $17.5 million vesting option. It’ll be much like Bobby Abreu’s $9 million vesting option that kept him with the Angels over the winter; the team won’t want it, but there may be no way to avoid it.

Chris Paddack loses no-hit bid in eighth inning vs. Marlins

Eric Espada/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Update (9:16 PM ET): Aaaaaand it’s over. Just like that. Starlin Castro led off the eighth inning with a solo home run to left field. That ends the shutout bid as well, obviously.

*

Padres starter Chris Paddack has kept the Marlins hitless through seven innings on Wednesday evening in Miami. The right-hander has allowed two base runners on a throwing error and a walk while striking out seven on 82 pitches.

The Padres’ offense provided Paddack with three runs of support, all coming in the fourth on Greg Garcia‘s RBI single and a two-run home run by Austin Hedges.

Paddack, 23, entered Wednesday’s start carrying a 2.84 ERA with an 87/18 K/BB ratio across 82 1/3 innings in his rookie campaign.

Among all 30 teams, the Padres are the only one without a no-hitter. They came into the league in 1969. The Marlins were last victims of a no-hitter on September 28, 2014 when Jordan Zimmermann — then with the Nationals — accomplished the feat.