Michael Young: statistical visionary

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Michael Young hasn’t hit well lately, but he does not believe he’s in a slump, per se:

“I’ve never really bought into the idea of slumps,” Young said. “There are going to be times you just don’t get the results that you want in this game. It’s just the nature of the big leagues. But what you’ve done in the past has nothing to do with what you’re going to do the next game. You’re allowed to wipe the slate clean and get back to work the next game.”

Given how much fun we’ve had picking on Michael Young around here, your first impression may be that I offer this to mock him for being in denial.  Not so!  I think he’s actually making a comment about people’s inability to properly understand randomness and random events which, inevitably, leads to things like the “hot hand fallacy.”

Yes, players have what we call “slumps.” And we use that term because it is useful. It describes events which did, in fact, occur.  When someone goes 0 for 32, he did suffer a slump.

But it’s wrong to stretch the concept into something predictive. To say that, because someone went 0 for 32, that at bat number 33 is doomed. Or, as it comes up more often, to make strident predictions about what the slump means as it relates to the player’s value and future prospects.  Fact is: players with any kind of track record are, in a significant enough sample size, going to perform pretty close to that track record and within norms for someone of their talent level, with a usual mild downward slope as they age and get more fragile and stuff.

I know that this has little to do with Young or even with what he’s talking about, but any chance we have to stamp out things like “the hot hand” or the related gambler’s fallacy (“he’s due for a hit!”) verbiage from the discourse, we should take it.

This stuff isn’t magic. There is no whammy. Stuff just evens out over time. Unless you think Michael Young was really a .400 hitter, that’s all that’s going on with him here, even if you want to call it a slump and he doesn’t.

Report: Mike Redmond has interviewed for the Orioles’ manager job

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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that former player and manager Mike Redmond is among those who has interviewed for the Orioles’ open managerial position. Those others include Mike Bell, Pedro Grifol, Chip Hale, and Brandon Hyde.

Redmond, 47, spent 13 years in the majors as a player from 1998-2010. He took over as manager of the Marlins in 2013 but had a short and unsuccessful stint. The team went 62-100 in his first year, 77-85 in his second, then went 16-22 to start the 2015 season before he was fired. It was hard to put too much blame on Redmond, though, considering that the Marlins have nearly perpetually been non-competitive over the last eight years.

Redmond has served as the bench coach with the Rockies for the last two years.

Whoever becomes the Orioles’ next manager will be taking over a team that went 47-115 in 2018. It was the first season in franchise history and one of the worst seasons of all time. The Orioles traded Manny Machado during the season to help facilitate a rebuilding process that will likely take a few years.