Josh Hamilton’s triple crown chances: pretty darn good, all things considered

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It’s ESPN Insider, but Dan Szymborski has a column up today assessing Josh Hamilton’s triple crown chances. While normally that’s pie in the sky stuff, as Dan notes, Hamilton winning the triple crown is more like pie on a moderately high shelf territory.

He ran 100,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, taking Hamilton’s historic norms and projections for this season going forward, and …

After all the numbers are crunched, Hamilton remains essentially a coin-flip to lead the league in each of the Triple Crown categories … In the 100,000 seasons played, Hamilton won the Triple Crown 16.1 percent of the time, terrific odds for such a difficult feat.

Hamilton’s historically shaky health is the key, but Dan bakes that into the projections. Indeed, some time on the DL would actually help his odds of winning the batting title. What he really needs to avoid is an extended stay which would put him in a hole in the counting stats.

I wouldn’t bet on it, but people do bet on things often bet on stuff with worse odds.

Cody Bellinger named NLCS MVP

Cody Bellinger
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Following a dominant 5-1 win to clinch the National League Championship Series on Saturday night, the Dodgers named outfielder Cody Bellinger their MVP of the series.

Bellinger, 23, made noise when it mattered. Entering Saturday’s game, he carried a meager .190/.227/.238 batting line with just four hits and two RBI, but his hits in Games 4 and 7 became the difference-makers the Dodgers needed to keep pace with the Brewers and clinch the NL pennant. In Game 4, it was Bellinger’s 13th-inning base hit off of Junior Guerra that put the Dodgers over the top for the walk-off 2-1 win. The outfielder returned to put the finishing touches on the series with a go-ahead home run — his first of the postseason — in the second inning of Game 7.

Bellinger wrapped his second season in the Dodgers’ organization in 2018, slashing .260/.343/.470 with 25 home runs, an .814 OPS, and 3.6 fWAR across 632 PA and all 162 games. He’s the youngest Dodgers player to receive the award to date.