Olney: Cole Hamels unlikely to give the Phillies a discount

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ESPN’s Buster Olney chimes in on a popular topic around Philadelphia these days:

Some of you suggesting Hamels will take a hometown discount. IMO, little chance that will happen. Santana money (about $120m) or he’s gone.

Which sounds about right, except for the fact that Santana money isn’t about $120 million. Six pitchers in big-league history have signed $100 million contracts:

CC Sabathia – seven years, $161 million
Johan Santana – six years, $137.5 million
Barry Zito – seven years, $126 million
Mike Hampton – eight years, $121 million
Cliff Lee – five years, $120 million
Kevin Brown – seven years, $105 million

(Technically, you could add Sabathia to the list a second time, if you want to include his new extension with the Yankees that replaced the old deal.)

Hamels, a free agent-to-be, is poised to become the seventh, assuming that he stays healthy for another year. He’ll be 29 next winter and he’s one of the game’s top 10 pitchers, so it’s entirely possible he’ll be in line for right around $140 million over seven years. Olney sees the Dodgers as strong suitors, and just because the Yankees and Red Sox are thinking about luxury-tax ramifications doesn’t mean they can be counted out. Elite pitching talents aren’t available every winter.

Dodgers look to join the Red Sox in the World Series

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One team has punched its ticket to the Fall Classic. Two teams are looking to join them, with the Dodgers carrying the distinct advantage. Los Angeles needs only a split in the final two games of the NLCS while Milwaukee needing to win both games at home. Doable? Absolutely. But to do it, the Brewers are going to have to wake up their sleepy bats.

NLCS Game 6

Dodgers vs. Brewers
Ballpark: Miller Park
Time: 8:39 PM Eastern
TV: FS1
Pitchers:  Hyun-Jin Ryu vs Wade Miley
Breakdown:

The Dodgers will give the ball to left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, who tossed seven shutout innings in Game 1 of the NLDS but allowed two runs and tossed 72 pitches, failing to get out of the fifth inning, in Game 2 against Milwaukee. Even if he again turns in a short outing Dave Roberts should feel pretty confident, however, as the Dodgers’ bullpen — considered a question mark coming into this series — has allowed only three runs in in 21 and two-thirds innings of work.

For Milwaukee it’s once again Wade Miley, who was the Game 5 “starter,” but who pitched to only one batter. I suppose it’s possible that Craig Counsell will burn him like that again, but it seems more likely that Miley will actually pitch in this game rather than be used as a decoy.

As I noted the other day, though, the Brewers’ pitching gamesmanship has not really been a factor in this series. The real problem for them has been their offense. They’ve scored only 16 runs in five games while batting .219. That’s actually identical to the Dodgers’ run total and average overall, but L.A. has been better at distributing that meager offense. Milwaukee has been cold at the worst times, too, going 5-for-35 with runners in scoring position in the series, including one for their last 11. If that doesn’t change, their season ends tonight.