About my projections

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Since there have been plenty of questions following some recent entries here, let me tell you a bit about my Rotoworld projections:

– They’re done by hand. I look at past numbers and apply my own judgment.

– This is my 12th year doing a full set of projections. This year’s included about 760 hitters and 790 pitchers.

– I don’t claim to be the best at projecting performance. As far as I can tell, there is no system that routinely outperforms the pack.

– Where I thrive is in projecting playing time and situation-dependent stats, like runs, RBI and saves. Thus I do claim to sport some of the very best fantasy projections around, and there’s evidence backing that up.

So, yeah, take the OPS projections with a grain of salt. I’m just providing them for fun. Since we’re selling the draft guide on Rotoworld (and it brings in a very significant portion of our revenue from the year), I’m limited in what I can carry over here.

And if you don’t like the OPS projections for your favorite players, don’t worry too much about it. My median miss last year was 51 points. I was 304 points off on Adam Dunn. The one player I nailed exactly was Adam Jones at .785. Of the 208 players projected to receive at least 300 at-bats and finished with at least that many, I was within 30 points of OPS on 74 of them (36 percent) and at least 90 points off on 57 of them (27 percent).

George Springer exits game with hamstring injury

George Springer
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Astros right fielder George Springer left Friday’s game with yet another injury, this one on a sliding catch attempt in the eighth inning. As Springer converged with Yuli Gurriel and Aledmys Díaz on a high pop-up, he slid into foul territory and appeared to be in moderate discomfort after getting up.

From the replay, it looked as through Springer might have felt some pain in his left hamstring, but the Astros have yet to comment on the exact nature or severity of his injury. After exiting the field, he was promptly replaced by Josh Reddick in the right field corner, while Tony Kemp entered the game to take over in left.

It’s been a rough month for the 29-year-old outfielder, who narrowly avoided a trip to the injured list after missing four games with lower back stiffness earlier this week. Following the Astros’ 4-3 win over the Red Sox, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters he’s “not looking forward to the diagnosis” this time around, and expects to place Springer on the IL until he can work back to full strength.