About my projections

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Since there have been plenty of questions following some recent entries here, let me tell you a bit about my Rotoworld projections:

– They’re done by hand. I look at past numbers and apply my own judgment.

– This is my 12th year doing a full set of projections. This year’s included about 760 hitters and 790 pitchers.

– I don’t claim to be the best at projecting performance. As far as I can tell, there is no system that routinely outperforms the pack.

– Where I thrive is in projecting playing time and situation-dependent stats, like runs, RBI and saves. Thus I do claim to sport some of the very best fantasy projections around, and there’s evidence backing that up.

So, yeah, take the OPS projections with a grain of salt. I’m just providing them for fun. Since we’re selling the draft guide on Rotoworld (and it brings in a very significant portion of our revenue from the year), I’m limited in what I can carry over here.

And if you don’t like the OPS projections for your favorite players, don’t worry too much about it. My median miss last year was 51 points. I was 304 points off on Adam Dunn. The one player I nailed exactly was Adam Jones at .785. Of the 208 players projected to receive at least 300 at-bats and finished with at least that many, I was within 30 points of OPS on 74 of them (36 percent) and at least 90 points off on 57 of them (27 percent).

Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna could “draw a significant ban” for assault allegations

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Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna was arrested in Toronto back on May 8 on charges of assault against a woman and he has been on MLB’s administrative leave list ever since — that leave having been extended twice already.

Canadian authorities aren’t revealing any details about the case so as to protect the identity of the accuser and it’s unclear where MLB’s investigation into the matter stands at this point, but Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports opens his latest column with this note …

Toronto Blue Jays star closer Roberto Osuna’s domestic issue is said by people familiar with the case to be serious and involve allegations of a physical nature, which would draw a significant ban.

Heyman notes that Major League Baseball handed 15-game suspensions to Jeurys Familia and Steven Wright for domestic assault cases where there was no physical abuse — or none proven — and that Aroldis Chapman got 30 games after a police report revealed that he did get physical with the victim and also fired a gun.

It sounds like Osuna could be facing a suspension of at least 20-25 games, given the precedent. Again, though, we don’t have any actual details.

Tyler Clippard has been operating as Toronto’s primary ninth-inning man in Osuna’s absence.