About my projections - MLB

Since there have been plenty of questions following some recent entries here, let me tell you a bit about my Rotoworld projections:

– They’re done by hand. I look at past numbers and apply my own judgment.

– This is my 12th year doing a full set of projections. This year’s included about 760 hitters and 790 pitchers.

– I don’t claim to be the best at projecting performance. As far as I can tell, there is no system that routinely outperforms the pack.

– Where I thrive is in projecting playing time and situation-dependent stats, like runs, RBI and saves. Thus I do claim to sport some of the very best fantasy projections around, and there’s evidence backing that up.

So, yeah, take the OPS projections with a grain of salt. I’m just providing them for fun. Since we’re selling the draft guide on Rotoworld (and it brings in a very significant portion of our revenue from the year), I’m limited in what I can carry over here.

And if you don’t like the OPS projections for your favorite players, don’t worry too much about it. My median miss last year was 51 points. I was 304 points off on Adam Dunn. The one player I nailed exactly was Adam Jones at .785. Of the 208 players projected to receive at least 300 at-bats and finished with at least that many, I was within 30 points of OPS on 74 of them (36 percent) and at least 90 points off on 57 of them (27 percent).

The New York Yankees could be opening the season without three-fifths of their projected starting rotation.

Right-hander Luis Severino has a low-grade lat strain, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters Saturday, putting the two-time All-Star at risk of starting the season on the injured list.

“Obviously it’s going to put him in jeopardy to start the year,” Boone said.

Boone expressed optimism this wouldn’t be a long-term issue but acknowledged that Severino “most likely” would get placed on the injured list.

Severino, 29, went 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts last season. He struck out 112 in 102 innings.

Boone said the issue arose after Severino made his last start on Tuesday.

“Afterwards when he was kind of doing his workout, arm-care stuff, he just felt some tightness in there,” Boone said. “He came in the next day and it was a little tight, and then yesterday he was going to go out and throw and that tightness was still there enough to where he wanted to go get it looked at.”

The Yankees already won’t have right-hander Frankie Montas or left-hander Carlos Rodón for the start of the season.

Rodón, who joined the Yankees by signing a $162 million, six-year contract in the offseason, has a left forearm strain that will cause him to open the season on the injured list. Rodón has been an All-Star the last two seasons, in 2021 with the Chicago White Sox and in 2022 with the San Francisco Giants.

Montas is recovering from shoulder surgery and won’t begin throwing until at least late May.

The only projected starters from the Yankees’ rotation likely to be ready for the beginning of the season are five-time All-Star right-hander Gerrit Cole and 2022 All-Star left-hander Nestor Cortes.

DEGROM SHARP

Jacob deGrom struck out six over 3 2/3 shutout innings against the San Diego Padres in his final start before making his Texas Rangers regular-season debut.

The Rangers had announced Friday that deGrom would get the start Thursday when the Rangers open their season against Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies. The two-time Cy Young Award winner signed a five-year, $185 million contract with the Rangers in the offseason after spending nine seasons with the New York Mets.

GREINKE WORKS 5 1/3 INNINGS

Zack Greinke pitched 5 1/3 innings in his final test before he gets the ball against the Minnesota Twins in Kansas City on Thursday.

It will be Greinke’s seventh opening day start. At 39 years old, he will be the oldest opening-day starter in the history of the Royals franchise, breaking his own record set last year. He will be the the oldest opening day starter in the American League since a 40-year-old Curt Schilling started against the Royals in 2007.

Greinke allowed two runs on five hits against the Dodgers with no walks and two strikeouts.

“He was great today,” first-year manager Matt Quatraro said.“It certainly looked like the way they (Dodger batters) were taking those pitches, he was just dotting the plate on both sides. His two-seamer and changeup looked really good. It was encouraging.”

VOIT OPTS OUT

First baseman Luke Voit has opted out of his minor league deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, giving the veteran slugger the opportunity to negotiate with other teams. He also could still return to the Brewers on a major league contract.

In other Brewers news, right-hander Adrian Houser left his start Saturday after 1 2/3 innings due to groin tightness.