About my projections

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Since there have been plenty of questions following some recent entries here, let me tell you a bit about my Rotoworld projections:

– They’re done by hand. I look at past numbers and apply my own judgment.

– This is my 12th year doing a full set of projections. This year’s included about 760 hitters and 790 pitchers.

– I don’t claim to be the best at projecting performance. As far as I can tell, there is no system that routinely outperforms the pack.

– Where I thrive is in projecting playing time and situation-dependent stats, like runs, RBI and saves. Thus I do claim to sport some of the very best fantasy projections around, and there’s evidence backing that up.

So, yeah, take the OPS projections with a grain of salt. I’m just providing them for fun. Since we’re selling the draft guide on Rotoworld (and it brings in a very significant portion of our revenue from the year), I’m limited in what I can carry over here.

And if you don’t like the OPS projections for your favorite players, don’t worry too much about it. My median miss last year was 51 points. I was 304 points off on Adam Dunn. The one player I nailed exactly was Adam Jones at .785. Of the 208 players projected to receive at least 300 at-bats and finished with at least that many, I was within 30 points of OPS on 74 of them (36 percent) and at least 90 points off on 57 of them (27 percent).

Ronald Acuña’s CT scan comes back clean

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The Braves announced late this morning that the CT scan on Ronald Acuña’s left elbow came back clear and he is considered day-to-day.

As you have all heard by now, Acuña was pulled from Wednesday night’s game against the Marlins after taking a Jose Urena pitch off his elbow in the bottom of the first inning in what was quite obviously an intentional plunking. Acuña  only suffered a bruise and some swelling. He missed all but that at bat of last night’s game and will likely sit out tonight’s game against the Rockies. It is expected that he’ll be back in action this weekend, however.

Acuña is batting .358/.425/.821 with 12 home runs, 24 RBI, and 25 runs scored over his last 25 games.