We’ve talked about the impending logjam on the Hall of Fame ballot going forward by virtue of all of the PED-associated players wading in starting next year. The upshot: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and others hanging around on the ballot for a long time, not getting enough support themselves while stealing support from others.
One thing some folks have worried about is this logjam giving us several years in which no one is elected, which would be bad for the Hall of Fame and, frankly, would just be stupid overall as an entire era of the game would be unrepresented.
But never fear, says Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times: despite the potential for what he calls “the nightmare scenario” of no one being elected, there will be enough support to go around where there will be at least someone elected every year:
From the point of view of Cooperstown, though, the nightmare scenario shouldn’t happen. You’ll get at least one new candidate making it in every year. In 2016, when the glut finally subsides a little bit, Ken Griffey, Jr. should make it in, along with at least one guy from the massive backlog, most like [Frank] Thomas (if he hasn’t gone in already).
Jaffe’s Hall of Fame vote projections have been pretty solid over the past couple of years. As such, his projections here should be the first place people go when they want to talk about what’s gonna happen with the Hall of Fame ballot going forward.