Hall of Fame projection: Larkin makes it, no one else

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Every year Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times projects the results of the Hall of Fame vote. Not just who goes in, but the exact percentage of the vote each candidate gets. He’s pretty good at it:  In the past four years he has made predictions for 63 candidates. Fifty of those candidates have come within five percentage points of the actual vote, and 22 have come within one percentage point of the BBWAA result.  Last year his margin for error was 2.4 percent.

His column for this year is up, and it breaks down thusly:

Barry Larkin: 82%
Jack Morris: 65%
Jeff Bagwell: 54%
Lee Smith: 52%
Tim Raines: 52%
Edgar Martinez: 39%
Alan Trammell: 32%

No one else is over 30 percent. He has Bernie Williams at 12 percent, which would keep him on the ballot. He’s be the only new candidate this year to stick around for next.  All of the usual holdovers like Dale Murphy, Mark McGwire and friends are north of that.

There is considerable precedent for guys who get over 50% of the vote to eventually make it in, so if Jaffe is right, it bodes well for Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines.  Jack Morris’ surge to from 54 percent to 65 percent would be notable, but one wonders if the extremely crowded ballot next year would allow for him to make it over the top.

Anyway, check out Jaffe’s column, which explains how he gets where he gets with these predictions and explains the curious dynamics of a Hall of Fame candidate’s journey from ballot newbie to Hall of Famer.

The Rays are calling up shortstop prospect Willy Adames

Tampa Bay Rays
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Confirming a report from Enrique Rojas of ESPN, the Rays have called up top prospect shortstop Willy Adames from Triple-A Durham. Adeiny Hechavarria was placed on the disabled list over the weekend due to a hamstring strain, so this is a good opportunity to give Adames his first shot in the big leagues.

Per Bill Chastain of MLB.com, Adames will start at shortstop and bat fifth in his major league debut Tuesday against the Red Sox. He gets to face Chris Sale, so he’s getting thrown right into the fire.

Adames came over to the Rays via the Tigers in the David Price deal back in July of 2014 and has been a mainstay on prospect lists along the way. Baseball America ranked him as the No. 19 prospect in the game back in January.

Adames, 22, was batting .311/.387/.466 with four homers through 40 games in Triple-A this season. That was after hitting .277/.360/.415 with 10 homers over 130 games at the level last year, so the progress has been nice to see. He’ll presumably get every opportunity to stick as a shortstop for now.

The Rays place Joey Wendle on the paternity leave list in a corresponding roster move.