UPDATE: Twins, Matt Capps come to terms on one-year, $4.75 million deal

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9:10 p.m. EST update: Capps will earn $4.5 million in 2012, according to ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson. The option is worth $6 million and includes a $250,000 buyout.

6:55 p.m. EST update: Capps and the Twins have a deal for one year with an option for 2013, Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports.

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Matt Capps will likely re-sign with the Twins, a source tells Steve Popper of the Bergen Record.

While no one else is confirming the news, it could be telling that the Red Sox are now out of the hunt for Capps, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.

A Capps-Twins reunion seemed highly unlikely a few months ago, what with Capps routinely getting booed off the mound on his way to blowing nine saves during a rough 2011 season. He did pitch somewhat better late in the year as a setup man for Joe Nathan, but he was never dominant at any point. More discouraging than his 4.25 ERA was the fact that he fanned just 34 batters in 65 2/3 innings. He struck out 59 in 73 innings for Washington and Minnesota in 2010.

Capps, though, is a better fit in Target Field than he would be most anywhere else. He gives up a lot of long flyballs, but most of those turn into outs in Minnesota and he hardly ever walks anyone. It’d still probably make more sense for the Twins to take the draft pick they’d get with his departure and go sign Octavio Dotel instead, but Capps probably will pitch somewhat better in 2012.

Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay lead newcomers on the 2019 Hall of Fame ballot

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The Baseball Hall of Fame has released its ballot for 2019.

The newcomers to the ballot, two of whom I presume will be first-ballot inductees, include Mariano Rivera and Roy Halladay:

  • Roy Halladay
  • Todd Helton
  • Andy Pettitte
  • Mariano Rivera
  • Rick Ankiel
  • Jason Bay
  • Lance Berkman
  • Freddy Garcia
  • Jon Garland
  • Travis Hafner
  • Ted Lilly
  • Derek Lowe
  • Darren Oliver
  • Roy Oswalt
  • Juan Pierre
  • Placido Polanco
  • Miguel Tejada
  • Vernon Wells
  • Kevin Youkilis
  • Michael Young

Given his PED associations — and the writers’ curious soft touch about them when it comes to him vs. other players who got caught up in that stuff — Pettite will be an interesting case which we will, without question, be talking about more between now and the end of January. There will be more than mere novelty votes thrown at Helton, Berkman, Tejada, Youkilis and Young, but I don’t suspect they’ll make it or even come particularly close. Everyone else will either be one-and-done or receive negligible or even non-existent support.

The holdovers from last year’s ballot, with vote percentage from 2018:

Edgar Martinez (70.4%)
Mike Mussina (63.5%)
Roger Clemens (57.3%)
Barry Bonds (56.4%)
Curt Schilling (51.2%)
Omar Vizquel (37.0%)
Larry Walker (34.1%)
Fred McGriff (23.2%)
Manny Ramirez (22.0%)
Jeff Kent (14.5%)
Gary Sheffield (11.1%)
Billy Wagner (11.1%)
Scott Rolen (10.2%)
Sammy Sosa (7.8%)
Andruw Jones (7.3%)

This is Edgar Martinez’s last year on the ballot. He’s so close to the 75% threshold that one hopes — and suspects — that he’ll get over the line in 2019, especially given that four guys were cleared off the ballot last year. It should be a move-ahead year for Mike Mussina too, who has suffered from criminally low support given his numbers and the era in which they came. That Jack Morris is now in should further strengthen his case given that he was a far, far better pitcher than Morris.

The rest of the candidates all either have long-discussed PED-associations that should prevent them from getting the required support, were too far out in vote totals last year to expect them to spring to 75% support in a single ballot or are Curt Schilling, who basically everyone hates.

Results of the voting will be revealed on January 22nd and, of course, we’ll be talking at length about this year’s ballot over the next two months. At the outset, though, I’ll go with a gut prediction: Rivera, Halladay, Martinez and Mussina will be inducted.

Your predictions start now.