Tangotiger published the results of his annual Forecaster’s Challenge on Tuesday, and my Rotoworld projections put together a pretty nice showing versus several other experts and projections systems.
There were 22 entries in the challenge, including the likes of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, Bloomberg Sports and the Fangraphs community projections. Also included was a consensus ranking using all of the systems put together. The projections were judged in four different competitions, and I finished first, second and fourth in three of those. I was somewhere in the middle of the pack in the other. It was in the head-to-head contest that I thrived; put in a two-person league with one of the 21 other systems, I won 41 out of 42 runs.
Alas, when Tango combined all of the four contests into one score, I finished second to the consensus model. As it turned out, the average of all of the expert systems was better than any of the individual systems this year.
Now back to working on those 2012 projections. Anyone with an idea on how many homers Bobby Parnell will allow should drop my a line.
(If you want to see more, I reviewed a bunch of my projections in this space last month.)
Mariners starter Félix Hernández will come off of the disabled list to make his final start of 2018 on Wednesday against the Athletics, MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. Hernández has been on the disabled list since September 8 with a right hamstring strain.
Hernández, 32, has endured the worst season of his 14-year career. He’s 8-13 with a 5.46 ERA and a 121/57 K/BB ratio over 151 2/3 innings. Hernández wants the opportunity to finish 2018 on a good note. He said, “I feel good. No problems. It’s 100 percent. I just want to finish strong and show them I can still pitch. It wasn’t a big injury. They just wanted to give me some rest.”
Hernández is under contract for one more year at $27 million. He has been the face of the franchise for the last decade, but if he doesn’t show he’s capable of beating major league hitters by the end of spring training next year, the Mariners may not be able to afford to give him a spot in the starting rotation. Despite a second-half slide, the Mariners were competitive in the AL West this year, entering the All-Star break 58-39, five games out of first place. With some roster fine-tuning, the Mariners could give the Astros and Athletics a run for their money. Hernández’s involvement with that effort remains to be seen.