UPDATE: Let’s not call the new collective bargaining agreement a success just yet

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UPDATE:  I need to walk this one back quite a bit, as many new details emerged about the new CBA after I posted it.  Here are some of those details which change my assessment of this quite a bit.

12:37 PM: At 1PM Eastern the MLB Network will have the news conference announcing the new CBA.  MLB.com is probably streaming it because they tend to do that. Go check it out if you’d like. If not, read this.

As we’ve noted several times, there aren’t CrazySexyCool changes afoot here. Very little in the new CBA is going to impact the lives and baseball-viewing enjoyment of the casual fan.  The realignment of the Astros to the AL starting in 2013 and the addition of a wild card team are both big obvious changes, but beyond that it’s a lot of inside baseball.  UPDATE:  Ken Rosenthal is reporting now that the new CBA will have some expanded replay for fair/foul calls and “trapped” balls.  We’ll have a post on that when we see the details.

The most comprehensive treatment of these changes I’ve seen can be found over at Bless You Boys, where Tigerdog1 — I think that’s a German name — breaks them down item-by-item.  I thought about just plagiarizing his work and calling it an homage or a remix, but that would be wrong.  Go check his post out for the nitty gritty.

The larger takeaway: while the advent of HGH testing and the realignment stuff will get the most attention, the most significant changes occur with respect to the amateur draft and international free agent signings.  In each case, a luxury tax was implemented, penalizing teams — fairly sharply, it appears — who choose to go over bonus limits set by the league. This will effectively serve as a salary cap for amateur signings, even if it’s not a hard cap.  And it will really change the way teams with low big league payrolls build.  Before they could plow money into the draft even if they couldn’t snag a big free agent.  Now: it won’t be easy.

I still don’t understand why Major League Baseball pushed so hard for that. Overall costs associated with the draft and signings are dwarfed by the main player payroll for each team and thus the savings there will not be dramatic overall, even if they do work pretty significant change in isolated situations.  Oh well. You get what you can get in a negotiation and the owners got it.

Anyway, as we said yesterday, the key here is less the specific changes — we only care about things like free agent compensation picks and Super Two eligibility for a couple cold months of the year — than the fact that the deal is done and it was done without blood on the floor or rancor in the air.

Indeed, by the time this contract expires, you’ll be able to get a legal beer with someone who wasn’t alive the last time baseball had a work stoppage.  And that’s pretty cool.

There is a “one million percent” chance Aroldis Champan will opt-out of his deal

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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that there is a “one million percent” chance Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman will opt out once the season ends.

Just going by the math this makes perfect sense, of course.

Chapman signed a five-year, $86 million deal with the Yankees before the 2017 season. Pursuant to the terms of the deal he’ll make $15 million a year in 2020 and 2021 (he was given an $11 million signing bonus that was finished being paid out last year). This past season the qualifying offer was $17.9 million. Craig Kimbrel of the Cubs just signed a deal that will pay him $16 million in 2020, 2021, and 2022 (he’s making a prorated $16 million this year). Other top closer salaries at the moment include Kenley Jansen ($19,333,334); and Wade Davis ($18 million).

It’s fair to say that Chapman fits into that group and, I think it’s safe to say, more teams would take him than those guys if they were all freely available. As such, Chapman opting out to get more money makes all kinds of sense. Heck, opting out, getting slapped with a qualifying offer, accepting it and then hitting the market unencumbered after the 2020 season would stand him in better financial stead than if he didn’t opt-out in the first place.

The question is whether the Yankees will let it get that far or whether they’ll approach him to renegotiate the final couple of years on the deal or to add some years onto the back of it. If they’re smart they will.