On second thought: the new CBA sells amateurs down the river

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In the blogging game, speed often rules. Sometimes you can be too fast, however. That happened a few minutes ago when I broke down the new collective bargaining agreement. Within about five minutes of that post going live, a number of details started spilling out about the thing, and a lot of those details are making me way more skeptical of the quality of this deal than I was when I called it “a total success.”

I think the biggest issue is that it is now becoming clear that the caps/taxes involved in tamping down amateur signing bonuses are way more harsh than had been suggested in earlier reports.

Specifically, the tax on amateur draft bonus seems downright punitive. If teams exceed the bonus limit set by Major League Baseball by more than 5%, they get hit with a 75% tax. If they exceed it by between 5 and 10%, they get a 75% tax and they lose a first round pick the next year.  If you’re 10-15% over, it’s a 100% tax and the loss of a first and second round pick. Fifteen percent or higher a  is 100% tax and the loss of two first-round picks.

The only thing not included is first born male children being turned over to a central league fund.

What’s more, the international signings are going to play into this as well, with any international player under the age of 23 being considered on the same basis as a draftee for tax purposes. Overall, there will be “pools” of international signing money available to each team, with better teams being able to pay out lower dollars in international signings than worse teams and, at some point in the future, the ability of teams to trade their international money to other teams if they don’t want to use it.  It’s unclear yet how that will work.

Let’s be really clear about something here: these changes are going to make baseball way less attractive to amateur players.  If you’re an elite two-sport athlete you’d be frankly crazy to try baseball first before giving the NBA or NFL a shot.  It may also serve as a de-incentive for scouts and agents and stuff to look for the next big thing in the Dominican Republic, say.  Even more significantly, this directly impacts the low-revenue teams who rely disproportionately on the draft in order to improve quickly.

Unlike a few minutes ago I’m going to hold an ultimate verdict until I’ve had a chance to think on it some more, but man: it seems like the owners and the MLBPA banded together to stick to it to the amateurs and draftees and international free agents.  And that seems profoundly shortsighted to me.

Marcus Stroman dealing with blister again

Marcus Stroman
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Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman might be headed to the disabled list soon, manager John Gibbons told reporters following Friday’s rain-shortened loss to the Yankees. The righty lasted just four innings on the mound before calling it a night, and gave up five runs, six hits and two walks in a performance that Gibbons claimed was at least partially affected by recurring blister issues on his right middle finger. Now, it looks like he might be removed from the rotation for some much-needed rest and rehabilitation; if so, it’ll be his second such stint this year.

Stroman, 27, has struggled to return the kind of winning record and sub-4.00 ERA that characterized his previous seasons with the club, mostly due to the combined seven weeks he missed with blisters on his throwing hand and chronic fatigue in his right shoulder. In a recent start against the Rays, things got even more gruesome when his blister appeared to start bleeding in the middle of his outing and MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm notes that the wound has constantly interfered with the right-hander’s pitch selection and delivery. When healthy, Stroman has managed a 4-8 record through 18 starts in 2018 with a career-worst 5.27 ERA, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.8 SO/9 in 100 2/3 innings. This will be the first year since 2015 in which he has not logged at least 200 innings in a single season.

While Stroman may not need an extended stay on the DL before he returns to the mound, it’s not clear what kind of timetable the Blue Jays expect for his recovery. He’s been the second-most valuable starter (behind the now-traded J.A. Happ) in a rotation that currently ranks 17th in the majors with a combined 4.90 ERA and 6.8 fWAR.