On second thought: the new CBA sells amateurs down the river

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In the blogging game, speed often rules. Sometimes you can be too fast, however. That happened a few minutes ago when I broke down the new collective bargaining agreement. Within about five minutes of that post going live, a number of details started spilling out about the thing, and a lot of those details are making me way more skeptical of the quality of this deal than I was when I called it “a total success.”

I think the biggest issue is that it is now becoming clear that the caps/taxes involved in tamping down amateur signing bonuses are way more harsh than had been suggested in earlier reports.

Specifically, the tax on amateur draft bonus seems downright punitive. If teams exceed the bonus limit set by Major League Baseball by more than 5%, they get hit with a 75% tax. If they exceed it by between 5 and 10%, they get a 75% tax and they lose a first round pick the next year.  If you’re 10-15% over, it’s a 100% tax and the loss of a first and second round pick. Fifteen percent or higher a  is 100% tax and the loss of two first-round picks.

The only thing not included is first born male children being turned over to a central league fund.

What’s more, the international signings are going to play into this as well, with any international player under the age of 23 being considered on the same basis as a draftee for tax purposes. Overall, there will be “pools” of international signing money available to each team, with better teams being able to pay out lower dollars in international signings than worse teams and, at some point in the future, the ability of teams to trade their international money to other teams if they don’t want to use it.  It’s unclear yet how that will work.

Let’s be really clear about something here: these changes are going to make baseball way less attractive to amateur players.  If you’re an elite two-sport athlete you’d be frankly crazy to try baseball first before giving the NBA or NFL a shot.  It may also serve as a de-incentive for scouts and agents and stuff to look for the next big thing in the Dominican Republic, say.  Even more significantly, this directly impacts the low-revenue teams who rely disproportionately on the draft in order to improve quickly.

Unlike a few minutes ago I’m going to hold an ultimate verdict until I’ve had a chance to think on it some more, but man: it seems like the owners and the MLBPA banded together to stick to it to the amateurs and draftees and international free agents.  And that seems profoundly shortsighted to me.

Dodgers plan to tab Clayton Kershaw for Game 1 of World Series

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MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports that the Dodgers plan to tab ace Clayton Kershaw for Game 1 of the World Series. Nothing is set in stone yet ahead of Tuesday’s Game 1 of the World Series. In the event Kershaw can’t start Game 1, Rich Hill would start. Otherwise, Hill would start Game 4.

Kershaw, started Game 1 and Game 5 of the NLCS against the Brewers, then closed out Game 7 with a flawless inning. He was hit around to the tune of five runs (four earned) over three-plus innings in Game 1, but rebounded for seven innings of one-run ball in Game 5. He struck out two en route to sending the Dodgers to the World Series in the ninth inning of Game 7.

Kershaw also tossed eight shutout innings against the Braves in Game 2 of the NLDS. Overall, he has a 2.37 ERA in 19 innings this postseason. There was no doubt who would be the Dodgers’ first choice to start Game 1, but it’s a relatively recent situation where the ace of a team also closed out the final game of the previous series.

Hill has put up a 2.61 ERA in 10 1/3 innings this postseason. While he doesn’t have Kershaw’s pedigree, the Dodgers would be confident having him lead off the series. Hill was excellent down the stretch last year, helping the Dodgers reach Game 7 of the World Series against the Astros.

The Red Sox plan to start Chris Sale in Game 1 now that he’s recovered from a brief stint in the hospital due to a stomach ailment. The lefty has a 3.48 in 10 1/3 innings in the playoffs this year. He’s among a handful of candidates for the AL Cy Young award after posting a 2.11 ERA in the regular season, but his lack of innings (158) may hurt him.