Ryan Madson’s deal sets a rich market for free agent closers

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Assuming his reported four-year, $44 million contract eventually becomes official, as the first closer from a closer-heavy free agent class to sign Ryan Madson’s deal would set the market extremely high for guys like Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Cordero.

They’re surely thrilled with Madson’s deal setting the tone, but the other 29 teams can’t be thrilled with the Phillies paying $44 million for what they hope will be 275 innings or so.

In fact, Alex Speier of WEEI.com notes that Madson is the first reliever since the pre-2008 offseason to get a four-year contract and going back even further than that it’s awfully tough to find more than a few instances of a team not regretting a four-year contract given to a reliever despite all relievers who got a four-year deal being elite at the time.

That doesn’t mean the Phillies will regret giving four years to Madson, as he’s only 30 years old and one of the elite relievers in baseball going back much further than his time as a closer, but it could nudge other teams toward overpaying for older, worse closers and the trickle-down effect may even boost the asking price for top-level setup men.

There is a “one million percent” chance Aroldis Champan will opt-out of his deal

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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that there is a “one million percent” chance Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman will opt out once the season ends.

Just going by the math this makes perfect sense, of course.

Chapman signed a five-year, $86 million deal with the Yankees before the 2017 season. Pursuant to the terms of the deal he’ll make $15 million a year in 2020 and 2021 (he was given an $11 million signing bonus that was finished being paid out last year). This past season the qualifying offer was $17.9 million. Craig Kimbrel of the Cubs just signed a deal that will pay him $16 million in 2020, 2021, and 2022 (he’s making a prorated $16 million this year). Other top closer salaries at the moment include Kenley Jansen ($19,333,334); and Wade Davis ($18 million).

It’s fair to say that Chapman fits into that group and, I think it’s safe to say, more teams would take him than those guys if they were all freely available. As such, Chapman opting out to get more money makes all kinds of sense. Heck, opting out, getting slapped with a qualifying offer, accepting it and then hitting the market unencumbered after the 2020 season would stand him in better financial stead than if he didn’t opt-out in the first place.

The question is whether the Yankees will let it get that far or whether they’ll approach him to renegotiate the final couple of years on the deal or to add some years onto the back of it. If they’re smart they will.