2011 Projection Review: Second basemen - MLB

What follows is a review of some of my 2011 projections for Rotoworld.com. I’m highlighting my preseason top five for each position and some other notables.

Catchers
First basemen

Second Basemen

Preseason Top 5

Robinson Cano – Yankees – $32 – #1
Projection: .313/.368/.518, 28 HR, 96 R, 113 RBI, 4 SB in 620 AB
2011 stats: .302/.349/.533, 28 HR, 104 R, 118 RBI, 8 SB in 623 AB

It was a little disappointing that Cano went from a 77/57 K/BB ratio in 2010 to a 96/38 K/BB ratio this year, but it certainly didn’t stop him from putting up outstanding numbers. Now that he’s the Yankees’ No. 3 hitter, he could crack 650 at-bats next year and finish with 30+ homers and 110+ runs scored.

Ian Kinsler – Rangers – $27 – #2
Projection: .283/.363/.478, 23 HR, 99 R, 73 RBI, 25 SB in 558 AB
2011 stats: .255/.355/.477, 32 HR, 121 R, 77 RBI, 30 SB in 620 AB

I wonder if Kinsler will ever put it together and have a truly monstrous year. He hit .319 in 121 games in 2008 and .286 in 103 games in 2010, but he’s finished in the .250s in his two healthiest seasons. Maybe the .320 was a fluke, but there’s no reason he can’t hit .290-.300 given his very modest strikeout rate.

Dustin Pedroia – Red Sox – $26 – #3
Projection: .300/.372/.463, 17 HR, 110 R, 75 RBI, 15 SB in 613 AB
2011 stats: .307/.387/.474, 21 HR, 102 R, 91 RBI, 26 SB in 635 AB

Since they’ll probably want to give Carl Crawford a chance to bat second, the Red Sox should just go ahead and make Pedroia their full-time cleanup hitter next year. He’s hit .397/.439/.678 with 28 RBI in 31 games in that spot.

Brandon Phillips – Reds – $25 – #4
Projection: .280/.335/.446, 20 HR, 90 R, 81 RBI, 22 SB in 599 AB
2011 stats: .300/.353/.457, 18 HR, 94 R, 92 RBI, 14 SB in 610 AB

Phillips turned in his best offensive season since 2007, but since the Reds as a whole were a disappointment, it didn’t result in 100 runs or RBI.

Dan Uggla – Braves – $21 – #5
Projection: .257/.351/.488, 32 HR, 92 R, 95 RBI, 3 SB in 553 AB
2011 stats: .233/.311/.453, 36 HR, 88 R, 82 RBI, 1 SB in 600 AB

Uggla simply took too long to get going. He hit .185 in the first half and .296 after the break.

Others

Dustin Ackley – Mariners – $3 – #28
Projection: .259/.334/.406, 7 HR, 46 R, 39 RBI, 8 SB in 340 AB
2011 stats: .273/.348/.417, 6 HR, 39 R, 36 RBI, 6 SB in 333 AB

It’s always nice to get a rookie pretty much right. The pathetic thing here is that Ackley had such mediocre run and RBI numbers even though he hit third in 71 of his 87 starts.

Gordon Beckham – White Sox – $15 – #12
Projection: .272/.344/.440, 18 HR, 86 R, 72 RBI, 10 SB in 577 AB
2011 stats: .230/.296/.337, 10 HR, 60 R, 44 RBI, 5 SB in 499 AB

I don’t know what to do with Beckham now. It doesn’t sound like he’ll be getting a change of scenery this winter, but maybe the switch from Ozzie Guillen to Robin Ventura in the dugout will serve the same function. I still believe the ability is there, but two years of such obvious regression at ages 23 and 24 is extremely discouraging.

Maicer Izturis – Angels – $4 – #25
Projection: .271/.337/.382, 5 HR, 53 R, 39 RBI, 11 SB in 343 AB
2011 stats: .276/.334/.388, 5 HR, 51 R, 38 RBI, 9 SB in 449 AB

Perfect projections just aren’t easy to come by. This one looks flat-out awesome until one notices the at-bats. Of course, if I had projected Izturis for 450 at-bats, then I also would have given him seven homers, 70 runs scored and 50 RBI.

Kelly Johnson – Diamondbacks/Blue Jays – $18 – #9
Projection: .275/.356/.478, 22 HR, 89 R, 74 RBI, 11 SB in 559 AB
2011 stats: .222/.304/.413, 21 HR, 75 R, 58 RBI, 16 SB in 545 AB

The Aaron Hill-Johnson swap came too late for either to salvage the season, but Johnson did hit .270/.364/.417 in 115 at-bats after the deal.

Howie Kendrick – Angels – $18 – #7
Projection: .304/.344/.442, 11 HR, 75 R, 74 RBI, 17 SB in 565 AB
2011 stats: .285/.338/.464, 18 HR, 86 R, 63 RBI, 14 SB in 537 AB

Kendrick finally turned in a really good season in his sixth year in the bigs, but it wasn’t the kind of campaign I thought it’d be. I figured the breakthrough would come in average, not power.

Chase Utley – Phillies – $19 – #6
Projection: .281/.389/.480, 19 HR, 77 R, 67 RBI, 10 SB in 427 AB
2011 stats: .259/.344/.425, 11 HR, 54 R, 44 RBI, 14 SB in 398 AB

Neil Walker – Pirates – $12 – #16
Projection: .278/.330/.434, 16 HR, 78 R, 76 RBI, 5 SB in 572 AB
2011 stats: .273/.334/.408, 12 HR, 76 R, 83 RBI, 9 SB in 596 AB

Rickie Weeks – Brewers – $17 – #10
Projection: .260/.360/.446, 22 HR, 91 R, 63 RBI, 16 SB in 534 AB
2011 stats: .269/.350/.468, 20 HR, 77 R, 49 RBI, 9 SB in 453 AB

I don’t imagine that Weeks will stay in the middle of the order following Prince Fielder’s likely departure this winter. Even with all of his power, he makes a lot more sense as a leadoff man, particularly since it gets him an extra at-bat every other game.

Ben Zobrist – Rays – $14 – #14
Projection: .251/.353/.399, 15 HR, 87 R, 64 RBI, 22 SB in 562 AB
2011 stats: .269/.353/.469, 20 HR, 99 R, 91 RBI, 19 SB in 588 AB

Zobrist rebounded a lot further than I thought he would after going from hitting .297/.405/.543 in 2009 to .238/.346/.353 in 2010.

PHILADELPHIA – Aaron Nola took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and struck out 12, Trea Turner homered twice among his four hits to lead the Philadelphia Phillies to their third straight win, 8-3 over the Detroit Tigers on Monday night.

Nola (5-4) fanned 10 and had faced the minimum through six as he tried to pitch the Phillies’ first no-hitter since 2015. The ace right-hander ran into trouble in the seventh when two batters reached on a walk and a fielding error. Nola still had two outs when he hung an 0-2 breaking ball to Nick Maton and the former Phillie crushed one into right to make it a 5-3 game.

Maton’s bat-flip homer was the only hit allowed by Nola. He walked three over seven innings.

Seranthony Domínguez and Andrew Vasquez each tossed a scoreless inning out of the bullpen.

Nola walked Jake Marisnick with two outs in the third inning but the outfielder was out at first base on a caught stealing by catcher J.T. Realmuto. Nola walked Maton with one out in the fifth but the baserunner was erased after Eric Haase hit into an inning-ending double play.

Nola threw 68 of 108 pitches for strikes in front of 33,196 fans. Nola, who recorded two strikeouts on automatic strike three calls, has now pitched at least six innings in each of hit last 10 starts.

He improved to 83-66 in a career spent all with the Phillies since his debut in 2015. The right-handed ace is a free agent at the end of the season. Nola and the Phillies tabled contract talks in spring training, with no plans to resume until the offseason.

Nola’s no-no stalled, too.

There have been no no-hitters in the majors this season, the first since Major League Baseball introduced a pitch clock. There were a record nine in 2021 and four last year.

The Phillies returned home from a 4-6 road trip in search of some last season’s June success that squashed a miserable start and led them to the NL championship. So far, so good. The Phillies won the last two games in Washington and kept the wins coming at home. They scored one run in each of the first three innings on Turner’s RBI single, Nick Castellanos’ run-scoring double, and Turner’s solo shot in the third.

Bryce Harper added an RBI single in the fifth. Turner connected the same inning off Tigers starter Joey Wentz (1-6) for his seventh homer of the season and first multi-homer game with the Phillies.

Turner has slumped in the first season of an 11-year, $300 million deal. He hit just .143 on the road trip but now has three homers in his last two home games.

VETERAN MOVE

Tigers DH Miguel Cabrera, who has said he will retire at the end of the season, is the last active player who played at Veterans Stadium. The Phillies last played in their now-razed former stadium in 2003. He played six games at the Vet in 2003 with the Florida Marlins. The Phillies will honor Cabrera before Wednesday’s game.

TRAINER’S ROOM

Phillies: LHP José Alvarado (left elbow inflammation) is set to make a rehab appearance in Double-A Reading. … CF Cristian Pache (right meniscus tear) is “swinging and missing quite a bit,” according to manager Rob Thomson, in his minor league rehab games.

UP NEXT

The Phillies send RHP Taijuan Walker (4-3, 5.65 ERA) to the mound. The Tigers did not name a starter.