NLCS Preview: Cardinals vs. Brewers

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You can’t predict baseball, but you can at least lay out the parameters. So let’s take a look at what the Cardinals and Brewers have in store for us during the National League Championship Series.

The Teams

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Probable Matchups

Game 1 Sunday in Milwaukee: Jaime Garcia vs. Zack Greinke
Game 2 Monday in Milwaukee: Edwin Jackson vs. Shaun Marcum
Game 3 Wednesday in St. Louis: Yovani Gallardo vs. Chris Carpenter
Game 4 Thursday in St. Louis: Randy Wolf vs. Kyle Lohse
Game 5 (if necessary) Friday in St. Louis: Zack Greinke vs. Jaime Garcia
Game 6 (if necessary) next Sunday in Milwaukee: Edwin Jackson vs. Shaun Marcum
Game 7 (if necessary) Monday, October 17 in Milwaukee: Chris Carpenter vs. Yovani Gallardo

Analysis: Neither team will have their best pitcher going in Game 1, as Yovani Gallardo and Chris Carpenter both started deciding games on Friday. Zack Greinke is coming off a rough start against the Diamondbacks, but posted a 3.15 ERA and 18/1 K/BB ratio in 20 innings over three starts against the Cardinals during the regular season. Jaime Garcia, who allowed three runs over seven innings in a loss to the Phillies on Tuesday, is expected to oppose Greinke in the series opener. The southpaw has a 4.28 career ERA on the road, including a no-decision against the Brewers in early August where he allowed seven runs (three earned) over five innings. It’s difficult to give one team the advantage over the other, as Brewers’ starters had a 3.78 ERA during the regular season while the Cardinals had a 3.81 ERA, but I think Greinke gets them off to a pretty good start.

The Storylines

– The Brewers and the Cardinals haven’t met in the postseason since the 1982 World Series, which was also dubbed the “Suds Series” for obvious reasons. The Cardinals won in seven games while catcher Darrell Porter was named MVP.

– “That’s correct” – That was Lance Berkman’s reply when he was asked to confirm whether his team doesn’t like the Brewers. The Cardinals and Brewers split the season series 9-9, which included a beanball war and plenty of bickering during some intense ballgames in early August and September. Things could get chippy here.

– The Brewers have home-field advantage, which is significant, as they were a major-league best 57-24 at home during the regular season and took all three games at Miller Park against the Diamondbacks during the NLDS. Of course, the Brewers were swept by the Cardinals at home just over a month ago, so who knows?

– Will Matt Holliday be able to play through his recent hand injury? The 31-year-old outfielder has been bothered by inflammation in his right middle finger for nearly four weeks and didn’t start the first three games of the NLDS against the Phillies.

– Can the Cardinals keep the Brewers’ one-two punch of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in check? Braun and Fielder combined to hit .389 (14-for-36) during the NLDS against the Diamondbacks while the rest of the Brewers’ lineup batted just .215. They need some of their other bats to step up, including No. 5 hitter Rickie Weeks, who went 1-for-18 (.056) against the D-Backs.

– Skip Schumaker, who went 6-for-10 with two doubles and three RBI during the NLDS against the Phillies, is expected to miss the NLCS due to an oblique injury. Tyler Greene will likely replace him on the active roster, but Tony La Russa will likely shuffle Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto in and out of the lineup at second base.

– John Axford blew his first save since April 18 on Friday against the Diamondbacks, but was at least able to get out of a major jam in the ninth inning and pitch a scoreless tenth. Not worried about him. With Francisco Rodriguez, Takashi Saito, LaTroy Hawkins and Kameron Loe also available as late-game options, the Brewers have the clear edge in the bullpen.

Prediction

These offenses matchup pretty well against each other, but the Brewers probably have the advantage in the pitching department. Throw in home-field advantage and Ron Roenicke’s crew looks too tough to beat, even for the red-hot Redbirds.

BREWERS WIN THE SERIES 4-2

And That Happened: Monday’s Scores and Highlights

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Here are the scores. Here are the highlights:

Yankees 10, Rangers 5: This one was a barnburner, featuring eight home runs combined from both teams. Gleyber Torres hit two, both off of Bartolo Colon, who is more than twice his age. Torres is the second-youngest Yankee to have a multi-homer game. Aaron Judge, Neil Walker, and Aaron Hicks also contributed dingers for the Yankees. Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, and Ronald Guzman went deep for the Rangers. Masahiro Tanaka‘s ERA goes up to 4.95 after serving up four runs in five innings. Despite that, the Yankees improve to 31-13, good for the best record in baseball.

Phillies 3, Braves 0: Nick Pivetta was brilliant, spinning seven shutout frames with seven strikeouts, limiting the Braves to four hits and a walk. Seranthony Dominguez pitched an impressive eighth and Hector Neris closed it out 1-2-3 in the ninth. Catcher Jorge Alfaro was the star of this game, throwing out Johan Camargo attempting to steal and making an absolute laser throw to first base for the final out of the game. He should’ve also had a caught-stealing on Freddie Freeman, but shortstop Scott Kingery didn’t handle the ball well. The Phillies got homers from Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr. Odubel Herrera, by the way, somehow got a hit on this pitch:

Mets 2, Marlins 0: Jason Vargas finally put together a good start for the Mets, tossing five scoreless frames. The Marlins only scraped out a hit and two walks while striking out seven times against him. The Mets, who started this month off with a six-game losing streak, have now won four in a row. The Marlins have lost four in a row; Monday’s was on the heels of Sunday’s absolute mess of a loss.

Nationals 10, Padres 2: The Nationals powered out four home runs, including Juan Soto’s first major league dinger. Mark Reynolds went deep twice and Bryce Harper went deep for his 14th homer of the year. Gio Gonzalez limited the Padres to a pair of runs on two hits and three walks with five strikeouts.

Brewers 4, Diamondbacks 2: The Brewers were powered by the long ball on Monday. Travis Shaw drilled a two-run shot while Domingo Santana and Lorenzo Cain hit solo shots. All three homers came against Zack Greinke, who struck out nine over six innings otherwise. Chase Anderson outdueled him, limiting the D-Backs to a pair of runs on three hits and three walks with three strikeouts.

Orioles 3, White Sox 2: Manny Machado hit his 15th homer of the season, moving into a tie for the major league lead with 15. He’s tied with Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez of the Red Sox. Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones also homered. Obviously, all of the Orioles’ homers were of the solo variety. Jose Abreu contributed a pair of doubles for the Pale Hose. The O’s are now 15-32; the White Sox are 13-31. Yuck.

Twins 4, Tigers 2: Jose Berrios may be back on track. He struck out 10 and held the Cardinals to one run over 7 1/3 innings his last time out. On Monday night against the Tigers, he limited the opposition to two runs on three hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in eight innings. Fernando Rodney worked a 1-2-3 ninth for the save.

Cardinals 6, Royals 0: The Cardinals continue to get dominant starting pitching. After Jack Flaherty struck out 13 Phillies on Sunday, Miles Mikolas followed up by tossing a shutout against the Royals. Though he only struck out eight while holding the Royals to four hits and a walk. Tyler O'Neill homered in his third consecutive game and Matt Carpenter also went yard in a 3-for-4 night. The Royals are on pace for 114 losses.

Rockies 2, Dodgers 1: Carlos Gonzalez broke a 1-1 tie with an infield RBI single in the eighth inning. The other two runs scored on solo home runs from Max Muncy and Gerardo Para. Both times combined for only six hits and committed a combined four errors — three by the Dodgers. German Marquez tossed seven solid innings for the Rockies, striking out five while allowing the one run. Walker Buehler matched him with seven one-run innings, fanning six.